TSLA Technical Analysis

[Electrifying]

on 30 minute chart, 238 area is trendline support and if the trendlines stay intact, I think we may see 255 by Friday.

Wow, reached $255 3 days before my prediction!

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Based on my understanding of a V Bottom Chart pattern this is my thinking:

A measured move off the V Bottom to $290 with the trend continuing up after meeting the target price.

Thoughts?

 

[hershey101]

Based on my understanding of a V Bottom Chart pattern this is my thinking:

View attachment 170961

A measured move off the V Bottom to $290 with the trend continuing up after meeting the target price.

Thoughts?

Looks good... Also $290s is the ATH so that'll definitely act as resistance.. If you want to play this, I might recommend waiting a bit as prices stabilize and consolidate around $250s before buying options (unless you plan on getting LEAPS) that way you can maximize your profits. Also get out ~$5 or so before your price target (eg. maybe $280-$285)...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Looks good... Also $290s is the ATH so that'll definitely act as resistance.. If you want to play this, I might recommend waiting a bit as prices stabilize and consolidate around $250s before buying options (unless you plan on getting LEAPS) that way you can maximize your profits. Also get out ~$5 or so before your price target (eg. maybe $280-$285)...

I was thinking the same thing before I read this thread today, so maybe a lot of people are thinking the same thing and it will play out that way. Probably a smart area for people to sell short and medium term calls if they still have them at that point or hedge them by converting to spreads. I'm thinking it will take the ER in May to go to ATHs but who knows.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

It has also been pointed out to me that that chart pattern could just as easily be an inverse head and shoulders and if that's the case then the neckline is at 240 (instead of 215) and the implied measured move would be to ~340 instead of ~290.

My plan is to either lighten up a little bit or hedge with options when we approach the ATH of $286-$287.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The TSLA chart is currently quite interesting. We just broke the 200 day SMA, and seem to be poised to close the $240 gap from 12/31/15 - 01/04/2017. This will bring us up into the October-November-December regression channel. The 20-day SMA had crossed the 50-day SMA last week, and gap between them is still increasing, with a slow and steady increase in volume through the last week. All of the above is unfolding on the background of macro tail winds with the same trader who predicted oil dip to $26 last November, is speculating that current oil climb will continue until it hits $49 (I know - the enthusiasm about the oil price action seems pretty irrational to me - but what do I know...)

I am in the process of setting up time delayed spreads (bought lower legs - Jan 2017 $190 and $220 and April 15 $230 - all green now). My original plan was to sell upper legs as we close the $240 gap, but I am wondering whether it is more likely at this point that as TSLA closes the $240 gap and runs into the old regression channel, it might continue the run-up to the $260 resistance point.

Anybody wants to share their thoughts on this?

View attachment 167996

Well, the interesting part is that TSLA seem to settle right back into the (10/12/2016-1/04/2016) regression channel. Very curious to see if it will follow it. It looks like it just got back on track after violent and swift "V" bottom. I am still holding my Jan 2017 $190 and $220, hoping to sell the higher leg of the spread as we bump against the upper boundary of this channel within the next couple of weeks. We do seem consolidating in the lower half of the channel on decreasing (since bursting into the channel) volume.

 

[austinEV]

All signs point to a 240 support level. I am looking at the fact that it is the same as a lot of recent tops and also happens to be the 20day:

Also happens to be the bottom of your regression channel. I think I will look at it to find support there and confirm up and buy back in harder. I did a pretty good job of acting on a top for once, trying hard not to get back in too early as I love to do so much.

 

[austinEV]

All signs point to a 240 support level. I am looking at the fact that it is the same as a lot of recent tops and also happens to be the 20day:

View attachment 171931

Also happens to be the bottom of your regression channel. I think I will look at it to find support there and confirm up and buy back in harder. I did a pretty good job of acting on a top for once, trying hard not to get back in too early as I love to do so much.

Another fun thing to note. The 50 day is approaching the 200 day slowly, A "life cross". In hindsight bailing on the previous death cross would have been a good (if early) call. That life cross might happen about Q1ER.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This looks like the definition of a bull flag, approaching the edge of the triangle ~$245 on low volume. Took 3 sellers for my medium size limit buy order to execute. Volume usually kicks in ~1:30. Lets were what happens.

It's also possible the market is focused on SolarCity today, and is waiting to see if it can get above $30. If SolarCity breaks above $30 with significant volume, a ton of shorts will probably cover. The SCTY shorts haven't budged, IV is near record lows even though options imply a big move should happen soon, and the stock is fundamentally and technically very oversold.

 

[Fallenone]

Well, the interesting part is that TSLA seem to settle right back into the (10/12/2016-1/04/2016) regression channel. Very curious to see if it will follow it. It looks like it just got back on track after violent and swift "V" bottom. I am still holding my Jan 2017 $190 and $220, hoping to sell the higher leg of the spread as we bump against the upper boundary of this channel within the next couple of weeks. We do seem consolidating in the lower half of the channel on decreasing (since bursting into the channel) volume.

View attachment 171846

I think the V invalided the channel. A new channel was formed from 140 to now. Still intact I think.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

All charts seem to point to ~$285 as the top of the channel, and the next major resistance point. Thoughts?

 

[austinEV]

All charts seem to point to ~$285 as the top of the channel, and the next major resistance point. Thoughts?

I think you should post charts or something that support that and we can chime in.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

All charts seem to point to ~$285 as the top of the channel, and the next major resistance point. Thoughts?

That coincides with the V Bottom analysis I posted up thread.

Having said that I don't feel the pattern is as strong as, say, resistance lines, support lines, trend lines, etc. But it does coincide with the all time (and 52 week) high around $285-287 as well.

 

[Electrifying]

Well, the interesting part is that TSLA seem to settle right back into the (10/12/2016-1/04/2016) regression channel. Very curious to see if it will follow it. It looks like it just got back on track after violent and swift "V" bottom. I am still holding my Jan 2017 $190 and $220, hoping to sell the higher leg of the spread as we bump against the upper boundary of this channel within the next couple of weeks. We do seem consolidating in the lower half of the channel on decreasing (since bursting into the channel) volume.

Agreed to this refound channel, looks like we found support on the lower trendline, $275 should be reached with a week or so.

 

[austinEV]

Possible Bull pennant or Wedge:

I may have to take a stronger position by the end of the day for a little break out.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA's simple moving average of 50 days crossed above the one for 200 days this morning. That's a bullish signal. In my book I showed example charts with 10 and 20-day SMAs for shorter term traders, but the same principle applies for the implications of lengthier SMAs as noted in the summary at the end of my moving averages chapter.

 

[Curt Renz]

$205.195 would mark a 50% retracement of the rise from the intraday low of $141.05 on February 9th to the high of $269.34 on April 7th. Such a retracement is often a setup for strong a return to the upside. It need not be exact. Today’s low of $206.80 could well have been sufficient.

 

[austinEV]

$205.195 would mark a 50% retracement of the rise from the intraday low of $141.05 on February 9th to the high of $269.34 on April 7th. Such a retracement is often a setup for strong a return to the upside. It need not be exact. Today’s low of $206.80 could well have been sufficient.

I certainly hope so.

My new rule is not to get in until "it has stopped going down". Which means I will miss some upside. I love knife catching so much!

 

[austinEV]

goodness, quite the crisp bottom support level at 207.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Someone else pointed out on another thread that this neighborhood is also a Fibonacci retrace support level as well.