Sure, but that would be an unusual pattern. TSLA has been operating with a near sawtooth/triangle between 250 ish and 180 for 3 years now. Eventually "it will be different" but a cold hard read of the chart tells me that we topped out again.
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Sure, but that would be an unusual pattern. TSLA has been operating with a near sawtooth/triangle between 250 ish and 180 for 3 years now. Eventually "it will be different" but a cold hard read of the chart tells me that we topped out again.
jesselivenomore
Member
Not to say this is definitely "the one"(I think it is), but when the one does come obviously we wouldn't stay in that triangle and it would break from the usual pattern, hence being "the one".
Also if we see 180 again after this strong move it would look terrible technically, and would most likely take some bad things happening fundamentally to get us down there too. Honestly I would not be a buyer there again because it will most likely fail to hold.
If you look at April 6/7 last year you see a similar pattern to right now. It peaked, traded sideways for a long time then broke down. The PATTERNS all tell me to do one thing (sit in cash) but of course I have major FOMO too.
jesselivenomore
Member
Yes, I have been looking at the April top last year a lot since the velocity of this move is very similar to that one. I see what you are saying on the daily chart. We can definitely pullback, I mentioned I am a buyer at 235-40, as well as 270. For an actual top though, if you look at the weekly chart it is much different this time. In April it topped out on a shooting star on the weekly with the high exactly touching the upper weekly bollinger bands(exponential). This time the candle last week isn't similar, and most importantly, we have already busted through and have been riding the upper weekly bands for 4 weeks now. Looking at the monthly chart, which is what's gotten me very bullish, it is again very different compared to April. That top had a major reversal on the monthly, meanwhile we just closed close to the top of the candle last month.
Again, not saying this has to be the one. I am positioning myself(or trying to) as if it will be because of some things that I see, but would change my mind if we get below 235 on bad looking price action. As far as April, I think there are some small similarities, but big differences.
And the ER is now near the end of Feb, instead of the usual beginning of Feb, removing a near term possible catalysts and makes it more likely for the stock not to rise in the next few weeks.
So, I'd now expect a slow decline approaching earnings, followed by a "what, they made a profit" rally February 23 (just in time for my girlfriend's birthday). ;-)
But what do I know. Short term movements are NOT my thing.
Unacceptable! We need short term guaranteed moves to trade on!
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
That's what I thought when the SP was at ~$240! No catalysts and it continued to rise.
Are you referring to 2016 April?
That was the model 3 run up Mar 31 into April. I feel like the primary reason it dropped at the end of April was associated to EM accelerating GF and M3 by two years, causing risk and uncertainty. Next up was the merger and most recently orange furry.
We are producing batteries locally, one good quarter in our back pocket, model 3 so close you can smell it. Compelling roof product for sale. Gen II battery packs for sale.
I would love to see a profit in Q4, but we have also made great progress and have a great story to sell going forward.
I would hope to see the M3 release right after earnings, this would obviously be a big positive for the market and provide additional stimulus. We would be also be removing a ton of uncertainty and anxiety from many an analyst.
That reminds of how little coverage is going on about the solar shingles, I guess the focus is so much on the model 3 and so much else going on. Meanwhile the shingles are doing to normal roofs what pc's did to typewriters or smartphones to dumb phones, or electric self driving cars to ice.
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The initial momentum buster was the release of the delivery numbers the first week of April - we were down on guidance by a couple thousand due to Model X production issues. We're sort of in the same boat here - if on the earnings call they extend the Model 3 timeline out further, that news alone will likely overwhelm any moderately positive news like 100K S+X, energy deliveries, Gigafactory news, and also overwhelm technicals. If we get a good story with good technicals, there's room to run. If TSLA wants to raise $, a good (truthful, not hyperbolic) story will help a lot.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Yeah, cup and handle broke out. I am long here. This feels like "the one".
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