TSLA Technical Analysis

[Jonathan Hewitt]

The first 3 times... The fourth time will cross and not look back.

Assuming that it was a local top again, which seems most likely at this point, we go down and find some new support level. 250's seem likely to me. Then there is some run up or news in a few months and we say good bye to the 200's.

Yeah, so much for "3rd time is the charm." I'm prepared for us to go under $200 again but agree that we might be approaching a bottom between now and around $250. I really think this should be it but the next month to 3 months is probably the last chance for shorts to really hurt TSLA unless TSLA screws up. Be prepared for manipulation! I see the daily BB and 50 week moving average around $240. I'm also looking at the 50 day SMA at $216 and 200 week SMA at $206 as add/leverage points but hopefully this is it.

 

[neroden]

Under $200... I think that's pretty unlikely. I still consider Tesla a screaming buy at that price and I think a lot of other people and institutions do too, especially with SolarCity clearly not being the anchor which some thought it was. It seems to have been difficult to keep the stock below $200 since early 2014, despite the strange February 2016 dip. And the company is certainly better positioned than in early 2014.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Chart Guys
I have followed The Chart Guys for a while. Seems he has some insight. Start to look at the videos one week back. Skip to about 4.50 for TSLA. What do you think @Curt Renz ?

He is essentially saying that "the trend is your friend". That may be true, but there can be bumps in the road as in recent days.

Below is a TSLA chart for recent months. The low in this time frame occurred December 2, although the price was slightly lower on November 14 before an essentially failed bounce. I've marked the rise from December 2 to February 14 as a 5-wave Elliott motive impulse series. Since then there may have been an ABC corrective series, although we do not yet know if wave C is complete. Point C ending below point 3 and slightly above point 4 is a normal case. If the ABC corrective series is at or near completion, another 5-wave motive impulse series could possibly commence fairly soon. Interestingly there is a "gap" between yesterday (February 22) and today. Gaps are often filled through retracement not long after they have been created

 

[Fallenone]

Under $200... I think that's pretty unlikely. I still consider Tesla a screaming buy at that price and I think a lot of other people and institutions do too, especially with SolarCity clearly not being the anchor which some thought it was. It seems to have been difficult to keep the stock below $200 since early 2014, despite the strange February 2016 dip. And the company is certainly better positioned than in early 2014.

Regarding SCTY anchor, OpEx has 80+m associated with SCTY in the latest letter. And that only accounts for the time SCTY was acquired, which was about half the Q. So for Q1 2016, I think we should expect to see 150+m OpEx from SCTY, not a very small one if you ask me.

 

[Turing]

Regarding SCTY anchor, OpEx has 80+m associated with SCTY in the latest letter. And that only accounts for the time SCTY was acquired, which was about half the Q. So for Q1 2016, I think we should expect to see 150+m OpEx from SCTY, not a very small one if you ask me.

There will be some synergy savings on opex and so on that may take a few months to work itself in, right?

 

[neroden]

Regarding SCTY anchor, OpEx has 80+m associated with SCTY in the latest letter. And that only accounts for the time SCTY was acquired, which was about half the Q. So for Q1 2016, I think we should expect to see 150+m OpEx from SCTY, not a very small one if you ask me.

Are you seriously looking at costs without looking at revenues?

Admittedly one of the problems with SolarCity is that the old accounting scheme makes it practically impossible to tell whether they're turning a gross profit on panel sales, practically imposssible to tell what the effective interest rate charged on the leases and PPAs is, etc. This should mostly be fixed by the changes to revenue recognition and lease accounting, but it's not clear when those will be integrated.

 

[Fallenone]

Are you seriously looking at costs without looking at revenues?

Admittedly one of the problems with SolarCity is that the old accounting scheme makes it practically impossible to tell whether they're turning a gross profit on panel sales, practically imposssible to tell what the effective interest rate charged on the leases and PPAs is, etc. This should mostly be fixed by the changes to revenue recognition and lease accounting, but it's not clear when those will be integrated.

Oh I was just referring to "anchor". Not sure what kind of gross profit it's bringing in. Lumping it up with TE, gross profit was 3.5M only so yeh.

One good thing with SCTY part is the company can sell their long-term lease at a discount for instant cash. That can provide fresh blood and reduce reliance on external capital market.

 

[neroden]

Oh I was just referring to "anchor".

Oh, there might have been some confusion about words. I meant the sort of anchor which drags a company down (like Bombardier's C Series, if you've followed that mess). The markets seem to have thought SCTY was that sort of disaster back in October; but now we know it's not. So there's no reason for the stock to be as low as it was then.

 

[Fallenone]

Oh, there might have been some confusion about words. I meant the sort of anchor which drags a company down (like Bombardier's C Series, if you've followed that mess). The markets seem to have thought SCTY was that sort of disaster back in October; but now we know it's not. So there's no reason for the stock to be as low as it was then.

Most def. Although from a normal business operation point of view It's not pretty now, IMO it actually can serve as a cash cushion for short term needs. SCTY brought in nearly 6b of solar energy products/leases. That's something TSLA now can tap into to get a few hundred millions here and there. Of course, SCTY also brought in about the same amount of long term debt but if it's short term we're talking about, more potential in gain.

 

[GoTslaGo]

FWIW,

I know the day isn't done, but look at the last 2-3 days for TSLA and NVDA (one could even argue 4-5 days). Pretty damn close price pattern (ok their reversal candles 2 days ago were different, but both were there at the same time).

I know the news kept touting the two analyst downgrades for NVDA as the driver for their price, but here is where I feel that @Curt Renz 's comment about the price movements are independant from news may be more accurate. Maybe a connection being established between TSLA and NVDA by traders.

 

[Fallenone]

FWIW,

I know the day isn't done, but look at the last 2-3 days for TSLA and NVDA (one could even argue 4-5 days). Pretty damn close price pattern (ok their reversal candles 2 days ago were different, but both were there at the same time).

I know the news kept touting the two analyst downgrades for NVDA as the driver for their price, but here is where I feel that @Curt Renz 's comment about the price movements are independant from news may be more accurate. Maybe a connection being established between TSLA and NVDA by traders.

NVDA's story is deep learning in general. Traditional gaming cards are still the bulk of their revenue but universities and software companies are buying GPU for deep learning, fueling its growth. Self-driving is just one application of deep learning and NVDA hasn't made much on it. TSLA specifically may have contributed 0.1% of NVDA's revenue. It's hard to argue these two are linked that much in the sense of business or story telling.

 

[GoTslaGo]

NVDA's story is deep learning in general. Traditional gaming cards are still the bulk of their revenue but universities and software companies are buying GPU for deep learning, fueling its growth. Self-driving is just one application of deep learning and NVDA hasn't made much on it. TSLA specifically may have contributed 0.1% of NVDA's revenue. It's hard to argue these two are linked that much in the sense of business or story telling.

You're right, but the truth and perception are often different. Most traders (who are not as smart as you) likely just look at the titles and make assumptions from there. I suspect traders are seeing nvda as a "cheap" way to get into Tsla. At least that is what the synchronicity implies to me

 

[Fallenone]

You're right, but the truth and perception are often different. Most traders (who are not as smart as you) likely just look at the titles and make assumptions from there. I suspect traders are seeing nvda as a "cheap" way to get into Tsla. At least that is what the synchronicity implies to me

I don't think so. This can't explain why nvda grew up to 4 times in a one year time frame while tsla less than twice.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I don't think so. This can't explain why nvda grew up to 4 times in a one year time frame while tsla less than twice.

Well considering before last year nvda wasn't on the radar for tesla it makes sense (just another chip maker).

Then when the headlines about autopilot success and nvda tie-up came out, some may have bought into nvda assuming it will be profitably integrated into tesla. And way cheaper than tesla. I guess one can think of it as a "growth spurt".

Realistically autopilot wasn't on anyone's radar until last year.

 

[Fallenone]

Well considering before last year nvda wasn't on the radar for tesla it makes sense (just another chip maker).

Then when the headlines about autopilot success and nvda tie-up came out, some may have bought into nvda assuming it will be profitably integrated into tesla. And way cheaper than tesla. I guess one can think of it as a "growth spurt".

Realistically autopilot wasn't on anyone's radar until last year.

Trigger event for NVDA was Alpha Go. Connection between NVDA and TSLA was almost half a year later, when NVDA already more than doubled.

 

[Curt Renz]

There was essentially a double bottom in TSLA including November 14 and December 2 with the latter slightly higher. That boded well. Since the high on February 14, the retracement from the three-month up-thrust is at about the common 38.2% Fibonacci pull back level noted by followers of Elliott Waves as frequently providing support that ends corrections.

 

[TMSE]

There was essentially a double bottom in TSLA including November 14 and December 2 with the latter slightly higher. That boded well. Since the high on February 14, the retracement from the three-month up-thrust is at about the common 38.2% Fibonacci pull back level noted by followers of Elliott Waves as frequently providing support that ends corrections.

TA novice here. Does it mean 38.2% retracement has already happened and the stock is likely to go up? what is the likelihood (% probability) of going up from now on? If up, by how much in the next leg?

If it goes down further from here, what is the likelihood? By how much? Thanks

 

[geneclean55]

TA novice here. Does it mean 38.2% retracement has already happened and the stock is likely to go up? what is the likelihood (% probability) of going up from now on? If up, by how much in the next leg?

If it goes down further from here, what is the likelihood? By how much? Thanks

The answer to the first part of your first question is - yes.
I wouldn't count on any solid answers to your subsequent questions from anyone.

IMO we saw a little bit of an oversold bounce after the morning plunge. We are above the 50 day moving average (which wasn't directly hit today) which could act as support, and also the 38.2% retracement as mentioned. Hopefully, the (admittedly small) bounce will continue tomorrow.

 

[techmaven]

There was essentially a double bottom in TSLA including November 14 and December 2 with the latter slightly higher. That boded well. Since the high on February 14, the retracement from the three-month up-thrust is at about the common 38.2% Fibonacci pull back level noted by followers of Elliott Waves as frequently providing support that ends corrections.

And Rich Ross of Evercore ISI mentioned the 38% retracement back to 50 day SMA with possible upside by another $100.

The technical reason why Tesla shares could soon rise 54%

 

[geneclean55]

Pretty classic looking bullish engulfing pattern signifying bottom of downtrend maybe?