TSLA Technical Analysis

[bdy0627]

What do you guys focus on for a moving average? My focus is longer term (6+ months) trend investing not short term. SMA 50 and 200 are default on Sharpcharts. I just read Stan Weinstein's book and he recommends a 30 week weighted average. He recommends protective sell stops just below that MA as a stock advances. I don't see weighted averages on any of the online charts that I've come across. Evidently it's different than an exponential MA. Thanks for any help!

 

[Curt Renz]

What do you guys focus on for a moving average? My focus is longer term (6+ months) trend investing not short term. SMA 50 and 200 are default on Sharpcharts. I just read Stan Weinstein's book and he recommends a 30 week weighted average. He recommends protective sell stops just below that MA as a stock advances. I don't see weighted averages on any of the online charts that I've come across. Evidently it's different than an exponential MA. Thanks for any help!

Weighted and exponential are similar; the latter adds a smoothing factor. I prefer Simple Moving Averages. In my opinion, the others deviate from the reason for having moving averages. For longer term investments, I favor the 50 & 200-day SMA's. That's what you will find in the chart I create each day for my website visitors. For shorter term trades, I find 10 & 20-day SMA's to be useful. You will find discussion of these SMA lengths in my book; in fact the latter two are depicted on the book's cover.

 

[bdy0627]

Thanks Curt!

 

[winfield100]

Weighted and exponential are similar; the latter adds a smoothing factor. I prefer Simple Moving Averages. In my opinion, the others deviate from the reason for having moving averages. For longer term investments, I favor the 50 & 200-day SMA's. That's what you will find in the chart I create each day for my website visitors. For shorter term trades, I find 10 & 20-day SMA's to be useful. You will find discussion of these SMA lengths in my book; in fact the latter two are depicted on the book's cover.

This may seem off topic, but our brains are designed to look at lots of information and integrate it to a conclusion, right or wrong. A baseball outfielder running, catching a fly ball.
Look at Minards graph of Napoleon invading and retreating from Moscow with an army of 440,000.
It integrates 7 data series into a simple idea " incredibly bad idea because you will die"
Simple concepts. The trend is your friend, don't fight the tape. Distilled to an answer at a glance, with a probability factor. (A particle is an extremely tiny probability wave, that might go where you think, maybe)

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

On Friday we had a bounce off the upper BB and a bounce off the 5 day SMA and ended in the middle, creating a Doji. Dojis mean indecision. This could mean a short term end to the uptrend or solely a pause before continuing higher. We were pushing the top of the BB but didn't quite reach overbought on RSI so I really could see it go either way today, or neither way so no help from me here. On the other hand, the weekly, monthly, and quarterly charts all look super bullish so while we may suffer a short term dip today or this week things still looks great on a longer time frame so if we do have a dip I will probably be adding or leveraging up.

 

[austinEV]

Does anyone else see a bull flag on the daily?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Does anyone else see a bull flag on the daily?

Now that you point it out, yes.

 

[winfield100]

Now that you point it out, yes.

this...?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

this...?
View attachment 229866

On the daily chart. Sorry for the poorly drawn lines.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

On the daily chart. Sorry for the poorly drawn lines.
View attachment 229867

Trying to break out of the flag right now

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Does anyone else see a bull flag on the daily?

I would like to thank AustinEV for noticing the bull flag. It gave me the fortitude to wait for resolution of the bull flag before doing anything stupid.

 

[austinEV]

I would like to thank AustinEV for noticing the bull flag. It gave me the fortitude to wait for resolution of the bull flag before doing anything stupid.

Hah. I did the same. "This is not a rollover. This is a consolidation or a bull flag. Buy." Sadly, I had a bunch of orders I got greedy on that didn't fill. Tried to get a bargain for a few pennies and missed out.

 

[geneclean55]

Hugging the trend-line would get us to around 355-357 by Friday. Roughly in-line with the inverse head and shoulders upside target.
Hope it reaches here and consolidates, because a little higher and I gotta roll some calls!

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

So not only have we been bumping up against the daily upper BB but we are also bumping up against the top of the upper weekly BB. In January the share price didn't seem to really care about being above the weekly BB but instead it almost looks like it served as support. Since April the upper weekly BB has been more of resistance. It's possible that with the good news from the shareholder meeting of Model 3 "definitely" having deliveries next month we could transition to what we saw in January, especially if some shorts start to cover. With the monthly chart looking so bullish this wouldn't surprise me. On the other hand, it would be safer to assume that we have the same trend we have had the last 2+ months. One more thing to watch and consider as you place your short term trades...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Papafox covered the daily technicals pretty well in his thread so I will give another update on the weekly time frame. Like I said this morning before market open, TSLA is not only being very aggressive with the upper daily BB but also on the weekly timeframe. Today the shareprice decided to disregard the weekly BB and move above it. Assuming the trend is still up, I expect either movement like January-February or movement like April through May. The Jan-Feb type move would mean we are going to aggressively keep moving up, which today seemed to demonstrate ($4 above weekly BB), whereas the April-May movement would imply we have a slowdown/slight pullback for the rest of the week with a resumption in movement up next week.

It's also possibly that we peter out like we did back in July of 2016, but with short interest not coming down and Model 3 around the corner I think the uptrend will remain intact barring bad news or macro events. Also, if you look at RSI in June 2016 it bounced right off the "oversold" line. Right now we are squarely in the overbought area, which is usually bad, but could also indicate an that there is an underlying reason for strong buying that is maintaining RSI in the overbought area. It's definitely risky to buy at this point for the short term but I think it's probably more risky to short.

I plan on maintaining my position at this time.

 

[austinEV]

I am starting to wonder if I drew my green lines too low:

Update of the "3 Era chart"

 

[theschnell]

I am starting to wonder if I drew my green lines too low:

Update of the "3 Era chart"

View attachment 230339

Don't let the current price action cloud your good judgement... Ahh, nevermind, I like it...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

TSLA is busting up through the Upper BB on the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts now...Either a very steep correction is possible or the falcon rocket is taking off. I'm betting on the second.

Here's the monthly, very strong!!! Notice the June candle is as big as the last three candles but we are only 1 week into June...

 

[kenliles]

Either a very steep correction is possible or the falcon rocket is taking off

Timing concurrent with M3 makes the latter a Heavy favorite

 

[AlMc]

Hugging the trend-line would get us to around 355-357 by Friday. Roughly in-line with the inverse head and shoulders upside target.
Hope it reaches here and consolidates, because a little higher and I gotta roll some calls!

View attachment 230029

Gene: Your Monday post proved quite prophetic