TSLA Technical Analysis

[GoTslaGo]

Interesting SA article about being bullish on TSLA (despite bearish sounding title). Trend is your Friend.

Tesla: A Year Early, $180 Short - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Curt Renz]

During the week before last, Thursday and Friday were down days for TSLA. Last Monday morning it moved down further to a low of $334.21. This past Friday morning it reached a high of $376.87 before the tech wreck. Therefore the range from the Monday low to the Friday high for last week was $42.66. A typical Fibonacci retracement of 61.8034% would be $26.37 bringing TSLA down to $350.50. So far the low this morning has been $350.62 – almost right on the button for theoretical support.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

So we started the day with a bounce off the 10 day moving average, which also coincided with a Fibonacci retracement like Curt pointed out so this was a great support area. We then went up and hit the weekly upper BB. We ended the day just under the 5 day SMA, not quite strong enough to punch through. For the 2nd half of the trading day we consolidated and formed a triangle (sorry for my poorly drawn lines). The resolution of this triangle seemed to happen right in the last 10 minutes of the day in the upward direction and would indicate a move back to the $260s but we probably need to see what happens tomorrow for confirmation.

As Papafox pointed out in his thread, the daily upper BB has a lot of room above the current share price so if we want to run the daily BB is not going to cause any problems. On the other hand, the Upper BB on the weekly stopped our advancement today so it possibly could slow us down for the rest of the week as well. On the other hand, the upper BB on the monthly is not acting as resistance at all and signifying a BB breakout so the weekly could have a similar fate. Last week I pointed out that a weekly BB breakout looked to be in the cards on Thursday but the tech wreck had something to say about that on Friday.

If we can move up from here there is a decent chance we can make it to the $390s for a test of $400 as this move down should have shaken out all the week longs who were in it because "TSLA goes up every day!" This move down also could have attracted weak shorts who will cover quickly on a move up, helping with the upward movement. A third reason we could move up to the $390s would be that any shorts who have been short for the past few weeks may have been waiting for a change in their luck. If we move up from here it would show those shorts that there has been no change in their luck, and the move down Friday, as the only move down in weeks, was the chance to cover their bad decision. A move back up would signify to smarter shorts that they should cover ASAP before that chance to cover gets further and further away. Before Friday many of these shorts were thinking "there has to be a big down day eventually! Right?" They can't say that any more. They had their big down day and it's over. Sorry but not sorry it wasn't bigger.

Weekly:

Daily:

Triangle (5 minute candles)

 

[geneclean55]

^
Great post!
As we get closer to quarterly delivery numbers, I also wonder if shorts are getting concerned about a possible 1-2 punch combo.
We went up a lot on delivery news last quarter.... which I am sure shorts remember. A similar announcement this quarter, around the same time as model 3 production might be too much to handle.

 

[neroden]

I am no technical chart wizard -- far far from it, I'm completely incompetent at short-term stuff -- but I've now looked at three or four different technical models which all seem to me to indicate that we're heading for at least 450 before any *serious* pullback happens (you know, pullback to 300 or the likes of that). I expect to be wrong. We'll see.

 

[dmunjal]

Doesn't seem to want to break the ATH today. Is this a double top or does it have to break through the old ATH to prevent going back down?

 

[austinEV]

Doesn't seem to want to break the ATH today. Is this a double top or does it have to break through the old ATH to prevent going back down?

well it did go to ath after hours so declaring it dead is premature. You are just being hasty. It returned to the ath in 2 days, and did so on a nearly 5% move, getting it to near the BB. There is every reason to think it continues to go up in the next days/weeks. Also, I would go so far as to say this IS the first topping.

 

[highend]

So told that week ago... months ago....
$380 (around) target for upside....

so take profit and .... ? wait for better longs

 

[dmunjal]

well it did go to ath after hours so declaring it dead is premature. You are just being hasty. It returned to the ath in 2 days, and did so on a nearly 5% move, getting it to near the BB. There is every reason to think it continues to go up in the next days/weeks. Also, I would go so far as to say this IS the first topping.

I was definitely being hasty! Went right through the ATH high and made a new one.

 

[AlMc]

So told that week ago... months ago....
$380 (around) target for upside....

so take profit and .... ? wait for better longs

I give you credit for being fairly accurate with your SP calls. How do you look at the next few days/weeks?

 

[highend]

I give you credit for being fairly accurate with your SP calls. How do you look at the next few days/weeks?

thanks.... I would sell now with SL around $376, and TP $355
will see

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

thanks.... I would sell now with SL around $376, and TP $355
will see

what is SL and TP?

 

[GoTslaGo]

what is SL and TP?

SL=Sell limit?
TP=Target Price?

 

[highend]

SL = stop loss
TP = take profit

I'm trading on forex platform using MetaTrader4 - I don't buy real stocks...
so I was wrong anyway for SL - but it was seen on todays opening. Anyway direction is currently south.
Who took profit (sold stocks at over $380) did smart move

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I like this chart. Idk about chances of it actually holding this trendline on Monday but one can hope!

credit to @Joe_Mama on stocktwits:
Joe_Mama - @yogabear I don't c downward technically. When those points ... | StockTwits

 

[austinEV]

Nice little hammer formed today. Also maybe a triangle in the daily if you squint:

 

[geneclean55]

^
I see it.
We also avoided a 5ma / 10ma cross-over on the daily which could have encouraged selling.

 

[Bgarret]

Nice little hammer formed today. Also maybe a triangle in the daily if you squint:

View attachment 232200

Thanks for the heads up...,last time you called out the hammer, I missed the post and ended up selling too early into the rally. Steady hands, greater profits.

 

[TMSE]

Nice little hammer formed today. Also maybe a triangle in the daily if you squint:

View attachment 232200

Or, is it hanging man?

 

[adiggs]

I like this chart. Idk about chances of it actually holding this trendline on Monday but one can hope!

credit to @Joe_Mama on stocktwits:
Joe_Mama - @yogabear I don't c downward technically. When those points ... | StockTwits

Maybe that ~410ish fixed point that the two trend lines converge on, is the point where Tesla finally breaks out of it's recent trading range (humor) and really heads up!