TSLA Technical Analysis

[GoTslaGo]

Now Bollinger did talk about varying the width parameters (the SD), depending on your periods:

Period 10 == use 1.9 SD
Period 20 == use 2.0 SD
Period 50 == use 2.1 SD

He says this keeps the containment percentage between 88-89% in most markets.

He also talked about using multiple SDs with the same period (as we are discussing above), and also to try overlaying different periods with the same SD to see where different points intersect... he didn't elaborate about much in his book about these, but just pointed out they might be interesting for more advanced TA folks.

 

[geneclean55]

Very cool the way SP hugs the 3rd SD on the daily when TSLA is in an uptrend. Might be useful for people who have short term calls and trying to gauge when to close them out.

 

[D-egg-O]

That's a good question. I went back and eyeballed through TSLA's daily candles. I ran both the 2 and the 3 SD on the same chart.

Looks like when TSLA hits up against the 3rd SD it seems to rise up for around 2-3 days--each day touching upon the 3rd SD. There was one point where it ran up to 4-5 days. Then it seems to fall back to the 2nd SD (currently accepted upper bands) and fall back lower.

Interestingly, the opposite pattern of going below the lower (2nd SD) bands seems to be less amount of days. There was one day (Aug 24, 2015) which went below the 3rd SD and bounced right back up.

Your idea of using the 3rd SD is an interesting one!

I wonder if we could use the amount of days where the SP moves above/below the 2nd bands and how it reacts to the 3rd band as a gauge to see if any stock is in a bear or bull cycle (this implies to me TSLA is clearly in a bull cycle). More research needed!

Nice. Strong work! How many data points did you use for the 3SD calculation? The default 20? Also, where did you get the data from? I'd like to start tracking it and playing around with estimated 3SD bounds.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Nice. Strong work! How many data points did you use for the 3SD calculation? The default 20? Also, where did you get the data from? I'd like to start tracking it and playing around with estimated 3SD bounds.

I used the 20d MA as the mean, then set the SD to 3. Then I set a second Bollinger band with 20d with SD 2 (different colors so i could tell). I used the NASDAQ charts. I'm certain all the charts will allow us to do this.

I will play around with some of the other suggestions that Bollinger had in his book, specifically the variation of the period (20d and 50d) while keeping the 2 SD. He hinted that some interesting intersections will show up when we do this....he didn't go into detail in the book.

 

[neroden]

I'm no technical expert, but a few weeks back I said that we were in a symmetrical triangle which would resolve around September 15. Seems to have done so and broken out upward. Hmm.

 

[AlMc]

I'm no technical expert, but a few weeks back I said that we were in a symmetrical triangle which would resolve around September 15. Seems to have done so and broken out upward. Hmm.

Good to see you posting. Hope you are well.

 

[neroden]

Good to see you posting. Hope you are well.

Yeah, fairly healthy, just super busy. Car trouble, actually. One of my *wheels cracked* going over a pothole. Tesla service is trying to be helpful but is not very efficient or coordinated, and is also very far away. Dammit, open that Syracuse Service Center already.

 

[D-egg-O]

Keeping with the Bollinger Band discussion, I'm going to go on record and say the SP doesn't close above $386.90 tomorrow (9/15). That's the price at which the upper BB would equal the SP.

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone else interested in it.

Edit: updated the screenshot to fix some typos in some headers.

 

[AlMc]

Keeping with the Bollinger Band discussion, I'm going to go on record and say the SP doesn't close above $386.90 tomorrow (9/15). That's the price at which the upper BB would equal the SP.

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone else interested in it.

View attachment 247710

It is probably just me but I have more problem visualizing everything on the charts with all the lines of different color than a table like this!

Thanks

 

[GoTslaGo]

Nice. Strong work! How many data points did you use for the 3SD calculation? The default 20? Also, where did you get the data from? I'd like to start tracking it and playing around with estimated 3SD bounds.

So out of curiousity I looked at NVDA today. Using your 3SD coupled with 2SD. We can see that for NVDA, when it got above the 2SD and 3SD, AND was green, it kept a strong continuation pattern. The times it got above the 2SD, but NOT the 3SD, it formed a quick reversal. So for NVDA, it looks like there could be a start of a strong run.

TSLA is not looking as strong right now, but the day is not over--and it is still above the 2SD. So I'm predicting a close over the 2SD (374.xx). Monday would be more iffy, but would likely be at or near the 2SD band. If it closes near the 3SD (385.xx), then I would guess that it will continue to show strength into monday.

Let's see how this 2SD/3SD combo works! Very interesting!

 

[D-egg-O]

You're able to plot both the 2sd and 3sd bands on the same chart?! Me like!

 

[GoTslaGo]

You're able to plot both the 2sd and 3sd bands on the same chart?! Me like!

I think you can probably do the same thing with StockCharts. StockCharts also offers some other useful options and indicators.

I forgot to post this on the 13th. Bollinger talked about a derivative indicator from the Bands... he called it the Bollinger BandWidth (not %b). You'll find it in the "Indicators" option on StockCharts. It helps identify "The Squeeze"--the point where the SP will break out, either up or down. StockCharts gives you the option to calculate these things, NASDAQ has a more limited repertoire. I've just gotten used to using NASDAQ (old dogs, new tricks...).

Wednesday:



Today:



So it implies that we are coming out of "The Squeeze" and the SP is headed into an expansive period of the price movement.

 

[D-egg-O]

I think you can probably do the same thing with StockCharts. StockCharts also offers some other useful options and indicators.

I forgot to post this on the 13th. Bollinger talked about a derivative indicator from the Bands... he called it the Bollinger BandWidth (not %b). You'll find it in the "Indicators" option on StockCharts. It helps identify "The Squeeze"--the point where the SP will break out, either up or down. StockCharts gives you the option to calculate these things, NASDAQ has a more limited repertoire. I've just gotten used to using NASDAQ (old dogs, new tricks...).

Wednesday:

View attachment 247814

Today:

View attachment 247815

So it implies that we are coming out of "The Squeeze" and the SP is headed into an expansive period of the price movement.

I have so much to learn. It's not even funny. Stock charts seems to be a decent website. Would you or anyone else recommend subscribing to their service?

 

[GoTslaGo]

I have so much to learn. It's not even funny. Stock charts seems to be a decent website. Would you or anyone else recommend subscribing to their service?

I am too cheap to do that (yes I'll admit it). I try to use whatever I can for "free", meaning I am willing to tolerate any and all ads (and every once in a while I will click a link! Usually be accident). I think @TrendTrader007 may have a subscription, and maybe @austinEV.

Mostly I try to read a lot. When I find a book written by the guy or gal who created the indicator (that I use) I will buy it and read it. "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands" happen to pop into my Amazon feed one day... so intrigued, I bought it! Lot's in there-- that I have to constantly re-read it.

 

[austinEV]

I am too cheap to do that (yes I'll admit it). I try to use whatever I can for "free", meaning I am willing to tolerate any and all ads (and every once in a while I will click a link! Usually be accident). I think @TrendTrader007 may have a subscription, and maybe @austinEV.

Mostly I try to read a lot. When I find a book written by the guy or gal who created the indicator (that I use) I will buy it and read it. "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands" happen to pop into my Amazon feed one day... so intrigued, I bought it! Lot's in there-- that I have to constantly re-read it.

Yeah I have the $25/month service and I like it a lot. TT has the deluxe version which allows quarterly charts which he seems to like a lot.

Today with 2S and 3S:

 

[D-egg-O]

To keep up with my theory of the BB(30,3) being a hard stop to daily SP movement, below is the upper limit of the SP (if it were to maintain it's current momentum) for Monday (9/18).

Also, updated austin's chart to reflect updated BB(20,2) & BB(20,3) data with closing price.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Some observations on the 2SD-3SD indicator we're following:

TSLA:

NVDA:

So we see TSLA staying within the expanding Bollinger Bands (above 2SD, below 3SD). Whereas NVDA has exceeded the 3SD. Our current working hypothesis is that once the SP hits or exceeds the 3SD it should stay put or bounce back. If this is correct, tomorrow NVDA's gains should be more muted as the 3SD bollinger band's expansion catches up to the SP. I expect it to stay above the 2SD, probably for another 3 days or so--if history is any guide.

TSLA staying in the mid range of 2SD-3SD is hopeful to me. Keeping above the 2SD follows the continuation pattern, and keeping below the 3SD hopefully allows the SP to continue up.... gracefully. I'm optimistic.

Notice both stocks are in the "expansion" phase of their Bollinger cycle (squeeze--expansion--contraction--squeeze, repeat).

FWIW, spent a good amount of the weekend looking at Elliot Waves of TSLA. Getting a SP range between 400-556. Higher SP if this Wave 5 forms an extension, lowest number is most conservative (I did get one more lower value, but it has been passed already, so that Fibonacci ratio has been passed).

One number I kept running across with my calculations is 427.

 

[bdy0627]

Some observations on the 2SD-3SD indicator we're following:

TSLA:

View attachment 248385

NVDA:

View attachment 248386

So we see TSLA staying within the expanding Bollinger Bands (above 2SD, below 3SD). Whereas NVDA has exceeded the 3SD. Our current working hypothesis is that once the SP hits or exceeds the 3SD it should stay put or bounce back. If this is correct, tomorrow NVDA's gains should be more muted as the 3SD bollinger band's expansion catches up to the SP. I expect it to stay above the 2SD, probably for another 3 days or so--if history is any guide.

TSLA staying in the mid range of 2SD-3SD is hopeful to me. Keeping above the 2SD follows the continuation pattern, and keeping below the 3SD hopefully allows the SP to continue up.... gracefully. I'm optimistic.

Notice both stocks are in the "expansion" phase of their Bollinger cycle (squeeze--expansion--contraction--squeeze, repeat).

FWIW, spent a good amount of the weekend looking at Elliot Waves of TSLA. Getting a SP range between 400-556. Higher SP if this Wave 5 forms an extension, lowest number is most conservative (I did get one more lower value, but it has been passed already, so that Fibonacci ratio has been passed).

One number I kept running across with my calculations is 427.

What's the timeframe on the Elliot Waves? Is there a time window for the SP range of $400-556? Thanks for the efforts.

 

[GoTslaGo]

What's the timeframe on the Elliot Waves? Is there a time window for the SP range of $400-556? Thanks for the efforts.

If it's an extended Wave 5 it's supposed to be the same length as Wave 1 + Wave 3, which would end around late Dec 17/early Jan 18. If it's not extended, I'm less certain... but guessing around Late Oct-early Nov. Historically though, Nov-Dec is usually good for stocks, so favor a late/prolonged run this year (i.e.-- I'm optimistic for a Wave 5 extension and the higher SP).

As @vgrinshpun notes, remember this is the ranting of the lower insane asylum... "Not advice"

PS--I suspect 400 will be within the next month or so. More short term calculations are probably best with regular TAs (trendlines, etc...)

 

[vgrinshpun]

If it's an extended Wave 5 it's supposed to be the same length as Wave 1 + Wave 3, which would end around late Dec 17/early Jan 18. If it's not extended, I'm less certain... but guessing around Late Oct-early Nov. Historically though, Nov-Dec is usually good for stocks, so favor a late/prolonged run this year (i.e.-- I'm optimistic for a Wave 5 extension and the higher SP).

As @vgrinshpun notes, remember this is the ranting of the lower insane asylum... "Not advice"

PS--I suspect 400 will be within the next month or so. More short term calculations are probably best with regular TAs (trendlines, etc...)

OK, do not put words in my mouth! It is not *insane*. It is *delusional*. I do not remember seeing any insane people over there. Got that?