TSLA Technical Analysis

[kenliles]

No offense but drawing a one year trend that does nothing with anything happened in the past 9 months does not make sense.

for my purpose it helps place a relative perspective of market assignment to TSLA value for it's longer term prospective- regardless of local events. I only use it (along with many macro data points) to influence my adjustment of Core holding leverage.
It barely even belongs here in TA (to your point) -
and I'm completely offended if it makes no cents, but not at all if it makes no sense

 

[zdriver]

Cody Freeman‏ @ZenTrends
$TSLA pattern to watch

 

[TMSE]

Cody Freeman‏ @ZenTrends
$TSLA pattern to watch

View attachment 255703

Just watch? What is the expectation?

 

[zdriver]

Just watch? What is the expectation?

Expectation would be to stay in the triangle, and bounce off this lower support. What actually happens probably depends more on macro conditions tomorrow, at this point.

 

[D-egg-O]

Maybe we test the 330 support level we've bounced off of twice since August.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Damn bearish price action the last several days. Now we are below the lower 2SD and bouncing off the the lower 3SD. Implies that we will have additional 1-3 days in the dumps. This is basing it on past history (see to the left of the chart) and Bollinger’s statement that SP above or Below the 2SD bands are continuation patterns. So if SP continues to go down to lower 3&4SD we’re looking at 320 and 313. IIRC @MitchJi’s wife’s prediction was 315 toward end of October... “spooky!”

FWIW, I’m getting Max Pain of 345 for Friday.... so that’s hopeful.

Edit: Oddly, just noticed the time I took the pic of the chart: 3:16...”6”!!!

 

[D-egg-O]

I'll update and post potential SP (up and down) later tonight for tomorrow. Including BB(20,2), BB(20,3) and BB(30,3). Been tracking BB(30,3), but haven't posted since I first started tracking.

 

[bdy0627]

View attachment 256165

Damn bearish price action the last several days. Now we are below the lower 2SD and bouncing off the the lower 3SD. Implies that we will have additional 1-3 days in the dumps. This is basing it on past history (see to the left of the chart) and Bollinger’s statement that SP above or Below the 2SD bands are continuation patterns. So if SP continues to go down to lower 3&4SD we’re looking at 320 and 313. IIRC @MitchJi’s wife’s prediction was 315 toward end of October... “spooky!”

FWIW, I’m getting Max Pain of 345 for Friday.... so that’s hopeful.

Edit: Oddly, just noticed the time I took the pic of the chart: 3:16...”6”!!!

I have not seen these different BB divisions analyzed before. Interesting info to mull over. Hard to imagine max pain at that price point being much of a tractor beam given where we are now. Thanks

 

[GoTslaGo]

I have not seen these different BB divisions analyzed before. Interesting info to mull over. Hard to imagine max pain at that price point being much of a tractor beam given where we are now. Thanks

Yes, it was a little side project @D-egg-O and I were working on earlier in the tech analysis thread. Back then the sp was hitting the upper 3sd and we were trying to see if there was a predictive power to the 3rd SD. Answer—kind of.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I have not seen these different BB divisions analyzed before. Interesting info to mull over. Hard to imagine max pain at that price point being much of a tractor beam given where we are now. Thanks

Sorry my previous reply was brief, had to go somewhere.

Our conjecture was whether the 3rd Standard Dev of the Bollinger Bands (standard Bands are 2SD around the 20MA), would serve as an upper or lower limit, if the 2nd SD was breached. Bollinger in his book on his Bands, indicates that when the SP is above or below the 2SD, it tends to act as a continuation signal. So the SP will ride the Bands for a while (we determined that TSLA seems to ride the upper bands for 2-3 days before dropping back down—lower bands historically tended to be a bit shorter).

When the SP hit the 3SD on the upside, it seem to act as a hard ceiling/resistance. Now we have an opposite example of the lower bands/support to see how it works. We already have an example where it continued down to the 4th SD (see July on the chart above). So we know that the support can be weak, but even then, the SP came back up into the 2SD range within 2 days.

It’s relevant for me, because I like to try to buy on the dips (IIRC you had said the same). Seeing how the SP is pushing the lower 3SD, it’s giving me confidence that the SP will likely flatten and move back into the 2SD band range within the next 2-3 trading days. So I’ve made more capital available to accumulate some more stock. Just debating whether I should get LEAPS as well.

Obviously this is because I have supreme confidence in the company. This is a tactic/strategy that no “trader” would ever endorse or follow. For other companies I would probably never use this tactic/strategy to accumulate shares...I would rather that the SP is back in the lower 2SD range to buy, ONLY IF I am confident about their movements based on their Elliot Wave cycle.

 

[D-egg-O]

For tomorrow (10/26)
upper bound = price at which SP is equal to applicable upper Bollinger band price
lower bound = price at which SP is equal to applicable lower Bollinger band price

Using BB(20,2) below is the potential upper bound to the SP. I'm not including a potential lower bound because we are already below it.

Using BB(20,3) here are the upper and lower bounds to the to the SP.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Now here is the result for BB(30,3). Reason I am tracking this is because when doing capability analysis the rule of thumb is to use 30 data points to get enough confidence in the results. You can see how consistent the standard deviation is compared to the 20 day data set. My theory is SP only trades outside of the BB(30,3) range when there is a clear catalyst (e.g. earnings surprise). I don't see any evidence for a clear catalyst right now, so if the SP is outside said bounds, I would take it as a strong buy signal (below the range) or strong sell signal (above the range).

 

[GoTslaGo]

For tomorrow (10/26)
upper bound = price at which SP is equal to applicable upper Bollinger band price
lower bound = price at which SP is equal to applicable lower Bollinger band price

Using BB(20,2) below is the potential upper bound to the SP. I'm not including a potential lower bound because we are already below it.
View attachment 256217

Using BB(20,3) here are the upper and lower bounds to the to the SP.
View attachment 256219 View attachment 256218
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Now here is the result for BB(30,3). Reason I am tracking this is because when doing capability analysis the rule of thumb is to use 30 data points to get enough confidence is the results. You can see how consistent the standard deviation is compared to the 20 day data set. My theory is SP only trades outside of the BB(30,3) range when there is a clear catalyst (e.g. earnings surprise). I don't see any evidence for a clear catalyst right now, so if the SP is outside said bounds, I would take it as a strong buy signal (below the range) or strong sell signal (above the range).

View attachment 256220 View attachment 256221

Wow! Those are quite an expansion in price differentials. Looks like we’re seeing the expansion phase of the BBs in spades!

Thanks!

 

[bdy0627]

Sorry my previous reply was brief, had to go somewhere.

Our conjecture was whether the 3rd Standard Dev of the Bollinger Bands (standard Bands are 2SD around the 20MA), would serve as an upper or lower limit, if the 2nd SD was breached. Bollinger in his book on his Bands, indicates that when the SP is above or below the 2SD, it tends to act as a continuation signal. So the SP will ride the Bands for a while (we determined that TSLA seems to ride the upper bands for 2-3 days before dropping back down—lower bands historically tended to be a bit shorter).

When the SP hit the 3SD on the upside, it seem to act as a hard ceiling/resistance. Now we have an opposite example of the lower bands/support to see how it works. We already have an example where it continued down to the 4th SD (see July on the chart above). So we know that the support can be weak, but even then, the SP came back up into the 2SD range within 2 days.

It’s relevant for me, because I like to try to buy on the dips (IIRC you had said the same). Seeing how the SP is pushing the lower 3SD, it’s giving me confidence that the SP will likely flatten and move back into the 2SD band range within the next 2-3 trading days. So I’ve made more capital available to accumulate some more stock. Just debating whether I should get LEAPS as well.

Obviously this is because I have supreme confidence in the company. This is a tactic/strategy that no “trader” would ever endorse or follow. For other companies I would probably never use this tactic/strategy to accumulate shares...I would rather that the SP is back in the lower 2SD range to buy, ONLY IF I am confident about their movements based on their Elliot Wave cycle.

Great information. Thanks for the explanation. Yes, I tend to be an aggressive dip buyer due to my long term confidence in Tesla. So, we could get a quick recovery back up into the 2SD range as before but the longer that takes, the less the stock needs to move up to get back to that level. It looks like some consolidation for several days is perhaps all it takes for the 2SD range to descend near to where the stock is. If it follows the 3SD down for a couple more trading days, we will be at the 200 MA. My guess is if that happens, there may be a quite rapid reversal due to these supports. The other consideration is ER on Nov 1, so 5 trading days to go. With the negative sentiment, it's hard to imagine a rally occurring prior to Nov 1. I can easily see the stock dropping in choppy fashion until Tuesday or Wednesday. If it does, it would take some truly bad news to cause further decline since so much gloom and doom is then priced into the stock.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Nice move above $325. Hope SP will hold above during the next couple of days. Converted an other 10% from my trading money to DITM LEAPS today. Might do the same in case we see an other big drop during the next couple of weeks. No buy target for the next 10% yet.

 

[GoTslaGo]

So today’s price action has me cautiously optimistic. The lower 3SD held and the SP went sideways from yesterday. SP almost a “Matching low” pattern, definitely a “Homing pigeon” pattern, both implying reversals.

But as we can see from the previous two day action (identical candle formation) the reversal didn’t happen before, why would it happen this time? Our conjecture is that the lower 3SD is a hard boundary, providing strong support. Now the SP is moving back to the 2SD, looking like the 3SD is doing its job.

Today’s tech ER strength may give TSLA a boost for tomorrow. If not, I suspect TSLA will trend sideways until Nov 1 (ER). Then, who knows....

 

[D-egg-O]

View attachment 256415

So today’s price action has me cautiously optimistic. The lower 3SD held and the SP went sideways from yesterday. SP almost a “Matching low” pattern, definitely a “Homing pigeon” pattern, both implying reversals.

But as we can see from the previous two day action (identical candle formation) the reversal didn’t happen before, why would it happen this time? Our conjecture is that the lower 3SD is a hard boundary, providing strong support. Now the SP is moving back to the 2SD, looking like the 3SD is doing its job.

Today’s tech ER strength may give TSLA a boost for tomorrow. If not, I suspect TSLA will trend sideways until Nov 1 (ER). Then, who knows....

The BB(20,2) range is starting to widen (larger standard deviation). We can actually close down tomorrow (10/27) and be right at the lower BB(20,2).

 

[Curt Renz]

This morning TSLA slipped 59¢ under its 200-day simple moving average of $317.25, then rebounded a few dollars from the day’s low. If this holds, that SMA may have proven to be a significant support level.

Meanwhile, note that GM, F and TSLA are all down by similar percentages at this moment.

 

[3Victoria]

Meanwhile, note that GM, F and TSLA are all down by similar percentages at this moment.

Yes, interesting. Flight of $ to the tech stocks?

 

[zdriver]

Today’s tech ER strength may give TSLA a boost for tomorrow. If not, I suspect TSLA will trend sideways until Nov 1 (ER). Then, who knows....

Option 3: Shorts not expecting tech ER response freak out, have someone issue a downgrade the next morning to smite TSLA before it has a chance to run due to Nasdaq's run

 

[GoTslaGo]

So the SP continued below the 2SD, but stayed above the 3SD. Furthermore it’s pretty close to a Doji. It definitely looks like an abandoned baby (bottom) forming—thanks @zdriver! Which would be good since it’s usually a reversal.

However, if we look back to previous TSLA patterns there is a similar appearing formation just before q3 numbers announced (see arrows). So just before the announcement there were three consecutive small/doji like days. With two more trading days before ER, I suspect we may see something similar. The question is, will we see the same big green engulfing pattern for early November after the ER?