Personally, I think the price action leading up to Q2 ER is more relevant. We are basically back to that trading range. Which also means we could go down to the ~310 area before earnings. Remember when price action was garbage for most of Q2 earnings day but spiked towards the end of the day? I will be watching sp action like a hawk on Wednesday.
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Ultimately I think for investing and trading one needs to use all the information you can get your hands on. Thanks @D-egg-O for that chart, confirmed what I had suspected last year. Luckily we sold a house last year around early October and piled most of that into TSLA. In retrospect should have put it all into TSLA, but we were noobs, and wife got nervous after we accumulated a certain amount of shares.
The one thing I do like about TAs is more of entry/exit points. The other thing is understanding what people are talking about with TA. Still remember when I stumbled on this forum, and everyone was slinging TA terminology. I was totally lost. So I took it upon myself to learn TA, and to understand it. So now when people talk about TA, I can understand what they are saying and have my own opinion on whether it is accurate or not. Still don’t understand things, but know where to find information now.
I’m still mixed about TA. I think some of the classic TA patterns is less reliable, and have been burned by using classic TA patterns to trade. I like the candles for daily action, entry/exit opportunities. But am moving more toward longer term TA—Elliot Waves. I really feel that EW gives me a better sense of where a stock is, bull or bear. The hard part is figuring out the correct pattern, and where the SP is in the pattern. Then calculating the Fibonacci’s gets tricky. The thing about EW is they can be subjective, and that’s what makes them hard, IMHO. Also they often take a while to play out.
Just my thoughts on TA, which of course, is still evolving and still learning.
bdy0627
Active Member
Thanks for the analysis here. I pretty much did the same, learning TA over the last year via several books, the internet, and TMC posts. I'm becoming less naive about it over time, meaning that I have learned you can't rely on it but it can be helpful. I think the most helpful points for me are the strong support and resistance levels as well as trend lines. Without TA, you wouldn't expect the stock to get stuck at certain levels, and it might catch you by surprise. With TA, you can anticipate the stock to move a certain way at certain levels, even though it isn't completely reliable. Bear in mind, I am not a day trader by any stretch. I do enjoy doing some trading though. I also like to shift my leverage around depending upon the stock movement. I have found with TSLA, the contrarian approach works best for me. It often isn't trending clearly and reverses hard on a dime, making it very difficult to chase the trend.
Market sentiment for a particular stock is also incredibly important.
Remember during the run up earlier this year when TSLA would leap out of the gate every Monday morning... easy money.
But that pattern isn't happening right now.
Remember during the run up earlier this year when TSLA would leap out of the gate every Monday morning... easy money.
But that pattern isn't happening right now.
there are, at least to me, quite nice contrarian indicators.
it helps to be a bit of a sociopath and "poke the bears unmercifully", driving them into weeping frenzies, screaming incoherent gibberish, where they lose their cool and do "poker table reveals". while rolling on the floor.
These incautious reveals, disclose closet bears, chiming in finally so you know whom to discount or ignore and add to the indicator.
I have not made a _lot_ of money, per' se', but I'm nicely positive and have used profits to diversify, have a subsidized Kaua'i vacation, pay for 1/2 a PHEV, bought a second house to retire in, partially, looking at a 3rd one (love subsidized traveling.)
basically, just goad the bears, unmercifully, with simple truths about how you _love_ their money subsidizing your nice life, with the knowledge they prowl these forums to dox you with, keep a mental monitor of your contrarian indicator.
It's seems to be somewhat a sentiment indicator, somewhat, that the frequency and number of posts and posters self reveal and easily discerned.
Go to SA, find your favorite bears, copy paste 10-20 articles of theirs, into a program, use that identify bears/closet bears, note # of posts.
This is the part im having trouble with.
Set up an automated system to scan future articles and look at # of posts by known bears and count increase, which is automatically revealed.
(you see odd patterns of "virtual people" popping into and out of existance and "groups" like multiple avatars of smaller virtual groups)
I shall work on this when i'm back in Florida for the winter, as montana is too cold and snowy a potemkin village
happy investing
Aloha
Mahalo
The 200-day SMA now at $317.67 appears to have been successfully tested for a second day. This time the day's low was 42¢ under the SMA, again resulting in a rebound of a few dollars.
Meanwhile, GM is experiencing a much tougher day following a Goldman Sachs downgrade to Sell.
well, that was certainly interesting, A user on SA seems to be stalking me here, copying my posts verbatim and posting on SA with questionable comments like "I'd suggest you consider the "incoherent gibberish" a tell for what is coming." less than a day later
Should I be worried? should i consider legal counsel? (I seriously am and have done so, and since I am being stalked, doxed, and potentially threatened and my posts here copied and pasted whole cloth to Seeking Alpha) I have reported, both times, the doxing and stalking and questionable comments as I 100% believe if someone threatens me in any way to completely believe them.
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For tomorrow (11/2) here are the some informational SP points as they relate to the BB(20,2) & BB(20,3)
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More interesting, the BB(20,3) is lower than the BB(30,3). Not sure what to make of that other than there's way more variability in the 20day data set vs. 30day data set. If you have protective puts, I would take $283 as a definite sell point.
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More interesting, the BB(20,3) is lower than the BB(30,3). Not sure what to make of that other than there's way more variability in the 20day data set vs. 30day data set. If you have protective puts, I would take $283 as a definite sell point.
So the question becomes, does this represent the bottom? Or has sentiment changed and there is more downward pressure to come?
Thanks for pointing that out!
Edit: I think it may be bumping the bottom.
I have it closing 63 cents below.
Its a great question on bottom versus sentiment change. Tesla has withstood very poor sentiment in the past. Not sure if today is worse than any of that.
I see examples in TSLA history of it sliding down the lower BB30,3 (just inside it) for several days.
I also see examples of hard bounces upwards off the lower BB30.3
I would be ok with a move like this
Its a great question on bottom versus sentiment change. Tesla has withstood very poor sentiment in the past. Not sure if today is worse than any of that.
I see examples in TSLA history of it sliding down the lower BB30,3 (just inside it) for several days.
I also see examples of hard bounces upwards off the lower BB30.3
I would be ok with a move like this
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I was playing around with the Elliot Waves. I think that the recent peak may have been the top of Wave 5–which should have progressed above the previous peak of Wave 3 (June 380’s), but didn’t. This means that Wave 5 is probably a Truncated wave*, and we are now descending (descended?) on a corrective zig-zag pattern.
ZZs are your classic A-B-C pattern down, following the downward trend line. Today (or this week) could be the bottom, but we will have to see. Usually the follow up after a ZZ is back into a new Motive/impulse wave cycle (1-2-3-4-5), so if this is the case that we are following a ZZ down, once it bottoms this could be the beginning of a new up cycle.
Caveat is that you can get multiple corrective cycles following each other... Like TSLA did in the past (I believe they had two large cycles back to back). I’ve seen some companies have 3 back to back corrective cycles before breaking back into motive waves.
I will try to post annotated chart later today.
*Truncated waves are wave 5s that fail to extend beyond wave 3 peaks. They are rare, but happens. In TSLAs case, I’ve always felt that the large short interest predisposes it to unusual wave patterns. If one looks at non-shorted companies they have pretty typical EW patterns (XOM for example).
bdy0627
Active Member
I don't know but my impression is that this gap down will begin a new bear cycle for a bit. I hope I'm wrong, and I'm not confident enough to sell any LEAPs at this point, but I don't think we are done bottoming yet. I do think the semi reveal will help stabilize the stock. That's in 2 weeks. My guess is we have about a week or so to drop a bit further and settle, and then start a tentative climb into the semi reveal. No plans to buy at this point until the stock shows signs of ending this bear cycle.
bdy0627
Active Member
A little.My gloominess has rubbed off on you
Time to continue my work toward being a conservative bull. My days as a wild bull have not been going well!Ok, here’s what I’m seeing with TSLA based on my interpretation of EW. So typically Wave 5 will exceed Wave 3, EXCEPT with a truncated wave 5 (rare, but happens). Assuming that Wave 5 is truncated, then we can start drawing the corrective cycle. The pattern is pretty much straight down, fits a Zigzag pattern, which is a classic 3 wave corrective cycle (A-B-C).
The trough will follow a parallel trendline determined by the points drawn from the peak of wave 5 to the peak of wave B. The bottom line follows from wave A to C. Sorry for the thick lines, but I think everyone gets the picture. The bottom should be determined by the trendline. Whether today is the bottom, I don’t know.
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