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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
But very little difference between 312.50 and 317.50.....interesting day
This morning TSLA has punched above both its 50-day Simple Moving Average of $317.48 and its 200-day SMA of $332.04. If those are still supportive at the close, that could bode quite well for the future of the share price.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Shorts saved by the bell. On the 5 minute chart TSLA had just successfully bounced off the top of the Ichimoku cloud, out of the channel it had formed since lunch time today, and was testing the upper Bollinger Band.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
That's what the chart says, at least. With that said, it's only the 5 minute chart so not as powerful as a greater timeframe. Whatever forces were playing out this afternoon may or may not be present tomorrow. I could see a big short collusion try to push us down at open down to the 200 day SMA or something but things were looking great into the close. We had a nice consolidation this afternoon followed by a strong close instead of profit taking/new shorts hopping in.
bdy0627
Active Member
I would actually love an attempt at a morning dip right away that fails and acts as a springboard.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Yeah, I would too! After the announcement last week I thought "this will be a great chance to roll my 401K over to an IRA so I can load up TSLA cheap." Well, I'm still waiting for the money to transfer...
I think there are a lot of bulls who wanted more but were being cautious and many traders who were flat TSLA waiting for a catalyst. There are also a lot of shorts who got trapped at at low prices. It's possible we have a gap and go or gap up, retest, then go tomorrow. Even if we do gap and go it doesn't mean we won't have a December repeat where we ran up fast and then came back down. No one should over leverage or chase at this point. I would think adding long term positions should still turn out fine, however.
Quote from yesterday morning followed by updated comments this morning.
It appears as though short selling hedge funds this morning tried to depress the TSLA price under the current 200-day SMA of $332.40. Recent buying interest has now pushed the price back above that level. Again if the price remains above at the close, that should bode well.
It appears as though short selling hedge funds this morning tried to depress the TSLA price under the current 200-day SMA of $332.40. Recent buying interest has now pushed the price back above that level. Again if the price remains above at the close, that should bode well.
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Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
5 minute cloud support for a little bit this morning but we all know how it went after that...The shorter time frames are unacceptable to that. Hopefully people were able to buy the dip today!
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
So good news is we are still above the 200 day SMA. Bad news is we failed to break out of the cloud on the Daily again, just like in December. It also looks like we are technically still in a downtrend that started back in September. If we can break out of the cloud and the downtrend then things could get awesome quick considering the even higher short interest. There shouldn't be too much resistance to ATHs if we breakout which would mean a good chance of breaking ATHs too (already had a double top). On the other hand, I don't know if the current Model 3 production supports such a breakout so we may have to retrace some of the big move we had Monday. I'm also not sure we can make ATHs before earnings gets out of the way and removes some uncertainty. Let's see if we can consolidate here above the 200 day SMA and that will help our chances breaking out this week or next.
bdy0627
Active Member
Do you have a good book or reference to understanding the “cloud”? [and I ain’t talking ‘bout the Amazonian Cloud]
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
To be honest I've just started using it myself recently so I am not the best person to provide advice in this area. All I did was google "Ichimoku Cloud" and read some of the stuff I found. Before I used to only use moving averages and Bollinger Bands but I've found using the cloud added an extra layer to my analysis that wasn't there before. I want to start using Fib levels on a regular basis next as I've seen that to be very useful to traders I've followed but might work on my knowledge of the cloud first.
Thanks! I have been looking at a similar sequence of stuff to learn, but hadn’t begun to research the Cloud and/or Fib levels. Saw some books on Amazon that looked interesting, but didn’t buy them because I’ve got other texts I’m trying to get through right now (specifically “Valuation” by McKinsey, et al.—of course a bear to read, but tryin’).
Ichimoku and Fibs don't seem reliable on TSLA, for whatever reason; BBs do. Dunno why. Papafox really has become a specialist on short-term analysis of this stock.
bdy0627
Active Member
What do we need to hit to break through the upper line of the down channel?
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Funny you should mention that because OS mentioned today that the cloud on the daily that I mentioned yesterday shouldn't be as much as a hindrance as it was in December because the SMAs are more supportive this time on the weekly chart.
Notice last time how the 5 week SMA was below the 10 during the big up move and the 10 week SMA still had a negative slope. Since then the 5 week SMA has crossed the 10 and both SMAs now have a positive slope. I think that is what OS meant by better situation this time. I was a bit concerned yesterday of a December repeat but not as much now. Other comparisons I've noticed are there is more room on the daily BBs this time, Mid-BB on the daily is more supportive, MACD is more supportive, and weekly MACD is more indicative of a turnaround SOON. We also held above the 200 Day SMA today again so we are getting some good consolidation right where we need to. Anyway, who knows what will happen next.
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