EVNow
Well-Known Member
Like a much beaten up dog, we can't believe there isn't another beating around the corner. 50% down in 6 months is a bit too much to take for anyone.
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Well, let me be a party pooper and list all the gaps below (the price listed is the price at which the gap completely fills). Some of these are only partial gaps (though it may be useful, I don't really distinguish between full and partial gaps). But see: Gap Trading Strategies [ChartSchool]
238.60
230.06
224.55
204.50
196.59
178.97
I note these gaps because there are many, more so than usual. Even more interesting is that SPY, QQQ, and other index ETFs also have similar numerous gaps around this most recent timeframe. There is no rule that says any or all gaps have to be filled, but when there are a lot of gaps, one should be cautious in my experience. Still, I'm not willing to bet which way a stock moves based on gaps alone. But it is one tool in a larger toolkit of both technical and fundamental analysis.
There are also some gaps between 140-170, but that obviously didn't occur on this recent leg down, but years ago (2016 I think). I would only worry about these if (God forbid) 180 support breaks.
And obviously there are several gaps above us still to be filled.
238.60
230.06
224.55
204.50
196.59
178.97
I note these gaps because there are many, more so than usual. Even more interesting is that SPY, QQQ, and other index ETFs also have similar numerous gaps around this most recent timeframe. There is no rule that says any or all gaps have to be filled, but when there are a lot of gaps, one should be cautious in my experience. Still, I'm not willing to bet which way a stock moves based on gaps alone. But it is one tool in a larger toolkit of both technical and fundamental analysis.
There are also some gaps between 140-170, but that obviously didn't occur on this recent leg down, but years ago (2016 I think). I would only worry about these if (God forbid) 180 support breaks.
And obviously there are several gaps above us still to be filled.
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Stars aligned
Member
That's just fine. Everyone should do what he is comfortable with and what the result of his own dd, analysis, risk assessment is. Holding long term shares seems to be a good idea if one believes the classic investment legends, and after all, they have been successful with the approach. But they also did have a steady inflow of capital which helped them to average down during weak periods.
I'm also in for the long term since mid 2018. But also I am happy that I lightened up my position during the downtrend after initially buying more, although it did hurt in this moment, to have some more cash. Coincidentally, this was when most here talked about staying long and strong under all circumstances. Started to buy again when the big volume bottom was reached, although it felt counterintuitive, and bought in pieces again more whenever a new June / July high was reached. Had to wait sometimes some days at the pullbacks. And I would have probably sold again if the pullback would be too strong and/or fundamental data would have shown things go unexpectedly south.
Imo the chart is helpful to position itfself in the bigger picture and not loose orientation in the fog, i.e. daily noise of all sorts. Helps to do counterintuitive decisions. And of course the interpretation of the chart can be more or less aggressive, more or less conclusive. Talk about seeing an upwards outbreak in a lin chart earlier vs in a log chart. Or see the outbreak in the log chart only at 245 vs. 236 as of yesterday. Talk about seeing a downward wedge vs. a downward channel. Talk about seeing an exhaustion breakdown in the final steep decline with high volume vs. seeing just manipulation and a disaster.
Now I'm well invested again for a longer term uptrend. But right, there's absolutely no guarantee that this uptrend holds... AMZN, AAPL multi year / decade long charts might be a good indication of what expects us, including sharp rallies and steep declines. As Elon said, the one who is afraid of volatility should better not invest in Tesla. And credit margins and calls / puts can easily lead to a total or near total loss.
What can we say? Well, it's a hard decision, to buy and hold vs. a more adaptive approach..... but yet again, I see a broad hesitating / cautious feeling as bullish. Once the majority here is super bullish and the stock shoots to the moon it's me who has to get cautious, again
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anthonyj
Stonks
When I saw Apple tank to $140, I didn’t think it would see $200 again so soon. When AMD tanked to $9, I didn’t think it would hit $33 months later. When Facebook got cut in half, who could’ve imagined almost 100% gains in less than a year? There is nothing unbelievable about this run up. We’re just getting started. Distribution phase ended around $230 a couple months ago. There has been accumulation since then. Lots of retail got margin called and lots of retail shorts got trapped under $230. Big banks bought em all up. I’ve called out institution distribution back in January and February, got tons of disagrees, people called me a bear/short. This thing is primed to see ATHs this year. Watch! Save this post.
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm definitely playing for a climb into earnings here. If it does, then I will certainly reduce leverage prior to earnings. If there is a selloff before earnings, then I think it becomes much more likely TSLA climbs on the ER. I do expect a significant pullback before long.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Definitely believe ATH is possible in the next couple of years, just not sure if it will be this year. But would not be surprised if it did.
Hell of a play with Jan 400 calls if it did though!
Stars aligned
Member
So, what do the TA crystal balls say for the beginning of the week? I've got two, the bigger says stop around 250 and retest the lower channel line. Channel, resistance and also euphoria, measured e.g. by the number and content of the messages in the main board here, speak for this thesis. In-the-money option holders might use this euphoria to make a quick buck. Exercise and sell.... and then some stories will be told about bad manipulators, of course.
Should it shoot above 250 with volume - well, that would mean that shorts panic. This is the scenario in the second, much smaller ball.
Cheers!
Should it shoot above 250 with volume - well, that would mean that shorts panic. This is the scenario in the second, much smaller ball.
Cheers!
Stars aligned
Member
seems that the less likely scenario happened... short covering and accumulation, probably exercising and keeping the shares....
Short term Opricot Chart shows huge volume on 230 puts... covering? and 250 calls. Open interest still as per last day. Tomorrow we will know what happened... de-/ increasing puts, calls?
Short term Opricot Chart shows huge volume on 230 puts... covering? and 250 calls. Open interest still as per last day. Tomorrow we will know what happened... de-/ increasing puts, calls?
Stars aligned
Member
The big picture is still the same as for the past weeks, but accelerated. Shorts and underinvested longs try to get a lot of shares. As the volume is too low and too few are willing to sell, they take the route via options and exercise them.
Open interest in 250 calls is today lower than 2 days before. Probably exercising, and those who have been exercised may want to refill their portfolio. On the other hand, large volume on 260 call options building up. Volume today 22.84k and counting.
What can be expected? Depends on which rumours materialise. S&P inclusion, materialising of Maxwell technology, surprise of what will be produced in the new Fremont production line.... this could be propellants for an upwards movement in the magnitude of 2013 or 2017, leading to a new ATH. Tesla might then be regarded more broadly as the next big thing.
Such a development is something that certain market players expect (and some fear) to a certain degree and try to hedge. On the other side, missing such important news would at least lead to some consolidation.
Open interest in 250 calls is today lower than 2 days before. Probably exercising, and those who have been exercised may want to refill their portfolio. On the other hand, large volume on 260 call options building up. Volume today 22.84k and counting.
What can be expected? Depends on which rumours materialise. S&P inclusion, materialising of Maxwell technology, surprise of what will be produced in the new Fremont production line.... this could be propellants for an upwards movement in the magnitude of 2013 or 2017, leading to a new ATH. Tesla might then be regarded more broadly as the next big thing.
Such a development is something that certain market players expect (and some fear) to a certain degree and try to hedge. On the other side, missing such important news would at least lead to some consolidation.
Stars aligned
Member
If I look at the RSI, euphoria has taken over. In the main board, the call traders are offering their bait. Time for me to take my trading chips from the table and wait for a better entry point, hopefully closer to the lower end of the channel. Trying to do the counterintuitive thing.
Should it blast through the roof, there's still a core holding.
Should it blast through the roof, there's still a core holding.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Where do you guys think we’ll end up in the next 2 days ? What is likely the low point to bounce off of - esp. considering the likely 10% dip and uptick rule for shorting?
anthonyj
Stonks
Usually I would use the 3 day rule for sell offs but Tesla isn’t in a dire situation like in Q1. I don’t think institutions will sell this off back to sub $200. Shorts might cover too
bdy0627
Active Member
My guess is that we will see the bottom today, near the open, as a result of the 11% gap down with the uptick rule. I think we then see a mild climb from there over the next several trading days. I will be surprised if we see a rapid recovery from this but I just don't see much further downside from this initial gap down.
bdy0627
Active Member
anthonyj
Stonks
Is the uptick rule confirmed to be in effect? This looks like data for yesterday, presuming that's why TSLA is not yet present:
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker
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