TSLA Technical Analysis

[Artful Dodger]

I expect a boost from Technicals tomorrow. The 50-day Moving Average should open at about $254.00 forming a "Golden Cross" with the 200-day Moving Average. Technical or Momentum traders could both be drawn in with this setup:

 

[MABMAB]

Flag, Pennant [ChartSchool]

 

[MABMAB]

Pennants

 

[jeewee3000]

Pennants

This would imply a move to around $387 within the next six weeks. NOT an advice as we are only in week two of the possible flag/pennant.

 

[UncaNed]

Flag, Pennant [ChartSchool]

is this more or less reliable as yesterday's Golden Cross?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Flag, Pennant [ChartSchool]

On the daily chart there is an uptrend from 2019-06-03 $177 till 2019-07-24 $266 resulting in a flag pole of about $89.
The break above the flag's upper trend line on 2019-10-24 at about $266 on heavy volume (earnings) is resulting in a target of about $355.
High trading volume after ER is supporting a flag breakout.This could be a positive sign for the bullish uptrend to continue before the next down trend.

What is your take?

is this more or less reliable as yesterday's Golden Cross?

Just for the record, golden cross completed.
Still some room to run till upper BB at about $370.

 

[Paracelsus]

We didn't break 360 and hold on the first attempt, but it is starting to appear that we have simply fallen back down to the lower trendline. If this is true then TSLA will have to test 360 once again before the end of the day:

 

[Curt Renz]

A technical Gap was created between the TSLA low during the trading session preceding the Cybertruck unveiling, and the high of the following session. If a Gap can be filled and exceeded within a few weeks, that can be a bullish technical signal. During the last couple of sessions TSLA has been in the process of filling the Gap. Pushing above could confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

 

[Curt Renz]

A technical Gap was created between the TSLA low during the trading session preceding the Cybertruck unveiling, and the high of the following session. If a Gap can be filled and exceeded within a few weeks, that can be a bullish technical signal. During the last couple of sessions TSLA has been in the process of filling the Gap. Pushing above could confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

View attachment 486920

The TSLA low on Nov 21 was $354.00, and the high on Nov 22 was $341.00. Hence the Gap.The high today was $357.19, thus closing the Gap. However, the close today of $352.70 fell back within the Gap. We'll need a close tomorrow (or fairly soon) above $354.00 to confirm that the Gap has definitely been filled, and signalling that the uptrend has resumed in full force.

 

[Curt Renz]

The TSLA low on Nov 21 was $354.00, and the high on Nov 22 was $341.00. Hence the Gap.The high today was $357.19, thus closing the Gap. However, the close today of $352.70 fell back within the Gap. We'll need a close tomorrow (or fairly soon) above $354.00 to confirm that the Gap has definitely been filled, and signalling that the uptrend has resumed in full force.

OK, today's close of $359.68 more than filled the Gap. Check. And it was above the 2019 high close of $359.52 set on Nov 19. Check. The ultimate target is the all-time intraday high of $389.61 set on 2017 Sep 18. Let's see if that can be surpassed this month or next. If so, 2020 could be quite interesting.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

OK, today's close of $359.68 more than filled the Gap. Check. And it was above the 2019 high close of $359.52 set on Nov 19. Check. The ultimate target is the all-time intraday high of $389.61 set on 2017 Sep 18. Let's see if that can be surpassed this month or next. If so, 2020 could be quite interesting.

Could not believe the all-time intraday high of $389.61 was set on 2017 Sep 18, that is quite a long time ago!
After five green traiding days in a row and Max Pain sitting a lot lower I hope for a lower closing price today and want to buy some trading shares for the next weeks / months.

 

[Cherry Wine]

TSLA - TESLA

So based on the above analysis, today's closing price did not close below the level that would confirm the "bearish three gap ups" pattern that has been flagged. By my estimation, TSLA would've needed to close below $357.30 to confirm the pattern.

 

[Curt Renz]

Technical analyst Tim Ord was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. Below is what he wrote today regarding his latest opinion change for the S&P 500 ETF (SPX).

For monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 12/13/19 at 3168.80.

It looked like earlier last week that a pull back was in the cards. With Friday's readings the uptrend may continue. Option expiration December's are up 78% of the time. The Index Put/Call ratio closed at 1.79 on Friday (higher 89% within 5 days). Friday's trading was a narrow range. Narrow ranges with tick>+150 and trin>1.5 (current readings Tick +173; Trin 1.48) have lead to short term bounces. If there is a pull back this coming week it should be shallow and Friday's should be higher than Monday's close.

All the Best,
Tim Ord
Ord Oracle - Home

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Could not believe the all-time intraday high of $389.61 was set on 2017 Sep 18, that is quite a long time ago!
After five green traiding days in a row and Max Pain sitting a lot lower I hope for a lower closing price today and want to buy some trading shares for the next weeks / months.

Got my chunk Friday at close. Holding breath.
Are there any technical reasons for the SP moving in a staircase like pattern each day climbing out of the gate and stabilizing during the rest of the day?

 

[Curt Renz]

The TSLA share price all-time high is $389.61, and the record close is $385.00. Both occurred on 2017 SEP 18. Re-attaining these levels could be a strong technical signal for continuation of the uptrend. It would be especially reassuring to institutional investors. It’s not quite there yet, but this week could continue to be quite interesting.

 

[jeewee3000]

The TSLA share price all-time high is $389.61, and the record close is $385.00. Both occurred on 2017 SEP 18. Re-attaining these levels could be a strong technical signal for continuation of the uptrend. It would be especially reassuring to institutional investors. It’s not quite there yet, but this week could continue to be quite interesting.

Some consolidation back to the upper BB would be healthy though. We'll see what happens.

 

[EV Promoter]

Nobody into Elliot wave Tesla analysis?

 

[anthonyj]

Wow TSLA chart looks just like Enron

Tesla The Next Enron? Here Are A Few Striking Parallels - ValueWalk

 

[Curt Renz]

Opricot has calculated TSLA MaxPain for options expiring December 27th to be $380. This is the supposed share price at which the greatest number of option owners would be shut out, and option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) would be able to keep the largest amount of their premiums. Option writers sometimes appear to attempt to manipulate the share price on Fridays to the MaxPain level.

Opricot: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

The MaxPain calculation is based on option open interest at the most recent market closing. It actually varies throughout a trading session.

However, there is a potential flaw in the methodology for calculating MaxPain. The posted MaxPain has been ridiculously low during the recent TSLA price run-up. This is undoubtedly because of all the put options still held for strikes far below the current share price. This would likely lead to an unusually large number of puts expiring worthless. That could skew the calculated MaxPain much lower than what would realistically be a target for the option writers.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

[..]
However, there is a potential flaw in the methodology for calculating MaxPain. The posted MaxPain has been ridiculously low during the recent TSLA price run-up. This is undoubtedly because of all the put options still held for strikes far below the current share price. This would likely lead to an unusually large number of puts expiring worthless. That could skew the calculated MaxPain much lower than what would realistically be a target for the option writers.

Curt, thanks for sharing your knowledge on TMC, and as always thanks for your eloquent explanation!