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TSLA Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Dec 31, 2014.

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  1. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

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    Here's another way to look at price volume (I eyeballed 20M as average daily volume). Its pretty much all aligned except for, notably, one small volume candle on May 1, where the daily chart is just a big red on 5/1 followed by a big green on 5/4. As a retail trading hack that tells me that someone(s) smarter than me closed out Friday May 1 with a bunch of accumulation around $700, and that suggests to me that $700 is going to be reasonably strong support. It also better aligns the two pre-corona peaks at $900, which I'd read as pretty strong resistance.

    upload_2020-5-20_9-41-10.png
     
  2. La_crolle

    La_crolle New Member

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  3. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    Piper Sandler technical strategist Craig Johnson was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. He still sends me his newsletters. In early 2013 he recommended TSLA, which inspired me to buy my first shares at $38.

    Today he did not comment on TSLA, although he had recommended it last month a couple of times. I subsequently doubled my position. His colleague Alexander Potter has it rated as a BUY.

    However, this morning Craig did write this regarding the overall market:

    In conclusion, U.S. equities have pulled back from overbought levels. Concerns over a second wave outbreak of COVID-19 and the Federal Reserve’s gloomy assessment of the road to recovery have thrown some cold water on the rally. Given the record-setting pace of the advance, and building economic uncertainty, pullbacks and volatility should be expected. However, we believe weakness should be bought as the technical and fundamental backdrop implies the lows have been set for stocks and the economy. We reiterate our year-end price objective on the SPX of 3,600.
     
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  4. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    Craig Johnson is a managing director and technical strategist at Piper Sandler (formerly Piper Jaffray). He was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show, and still sends me his newsletters. In early 2013 he recommended TSLA, which led to my first purchase at $38. His auto analyst colleague Alexander Potter has a BUY rating on TSLA.

    This morning Craig included TSLA in his list of technically positive stocks, and noted that there may be an opportunity for investors to benefit from its recent pullback. :cool:
     
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  5. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    The above quote was from Monday. Here's what Craig wrote this morning, Wednesday:

    • Tesla Inc (TSLA - $982.13); Shares have climbed to record-highs after surpassing resistance off the February ‘20 highs; above the rising 10-/30-week WMAs; constructive/confirming RS trend and notable TechniGrade ranking; add to positions, as we suspect shares have more room to run.
     
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  6. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    Technical analyst Tim Ord was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show. Below is what he wrote shortly after the close today regarding his latest opinion change for the S&P 500 ETF (SPX).

    For monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 6/18/20 at 3115.34.

    All the Best,
    Tim Ord
    Ord Oracle - Home
     
  7. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    #1887 Curt Renz, Jun 24, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2020
    Craig Johnson is a managing director and technical strategist at Piper Sandler (formerly Piper Jaffray). He was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show, and still sends me his newsletters. In early 2013 he recommended TSLA, which led to my first purchase at $38. His auto analyst colleague Alexander Potter has a BUY rating on TSLA.

    This morning in his monthly "Informed Investor" booklet, Craig noted that TSLA is his top choice among major auto manufacturers, and reiterated his Tesla comment from last week:

    TSLA—Shares are trading in record-high territory after surpassing resistance off the February ’20 highs; above the rising 10-/30-week WMAs; constructive/confirming RS trend and impressive TechniGrade ranking; add to positions, as we suspect the stock has more room to run.
     
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  8. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger Supportive Mentor

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    #1888 Artful Dodger, Jun 27, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2020
    Why did you single me out for a reply in Main, instead of including the OP? What's wrong, is the "TA is BS" comment polite by your standards, but calling for reason isn't?

    I expect little actual, fact-based discussion of the merits of TA since there have been only 7 posts here in this thread in 5 wks, only 2 of which were NOT by @Curt Renz and only 27 posts total in this Forum in all of Q2.

    Yet you had to sneak in a side comment in Main comparing TA to Astrology? That's not impolite, that's borderline trolling. Bad judgement, IMO.

    Astrology isn't a swear word like "BS", but it is disrespectful to compare obvious psuedo-science to T/A, which is a statistical and numerical methodolgy (albeit misunderstood or misused by some).

    FYI, I will not reply to further emotion-based arguments. If people present actual evidence in support of their postions instead of inflammatory rhetoric, we can discuss this topic further. Otherwise, don't expect a reply from me.

    Regards,
    Lodger
     
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  9. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

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    Eh, I wouldn't take it too personally. Honestly, its nice to know who's opinion/analysis is worth considering.

    If there's one thing most folks can agree on it is that any kind of trading/investing should be consistent, objective, and data driven, and explicitly not emotional...and any advice/opinion/analysis we consider should come from a trusted source rooted by the same logic. The corollary: Anyone lacking ability to objectively accept there are merits and drawbacks of both Technical and Fundamental strategies (to say nothing of tossing bonus insults in the mix) is obviously not objective enough to offer consistently worthwhile trading/investing advice, and thus all of their advice is worthless.

    I often find that inconsistency is rooted in novice experience, insufficient market understanding, or even just a lost shirt or three, but the cause of the inconsistency is all but irrelevant since the bottom line to you is still the same.
     
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  10. Bet TSLA

    Bet TSLA Active Member

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    I'll note that you provide nothing to support your dismissal of astrology as perfectly legitimate. So where do you get off righteously demanding a "fact-based discussion of the merits of TA"? If anybody is being disrespectful it's you. I didn't condemn anything. I just asked that discussion be confined to its proper place.

    I have no problem with you believing whatever you like. It's of no concern to me whether it's nonsense or otherwise.
     
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  11. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger Supportive Mentor

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    Thank you for your sage words. Personally, I'm closing in on the mystical 10,000 hr mark in investing which many sources designate as the threshold for 'expertise'. Lol, I think for TSLA investing at least, I'm closing in on 'competence'. When I began this journey, I granted myself 10 years to get good at investing.

    It has been a long slog with many dark days on the road to journeyman status, but I am now reaping the benefits of a reasoned and methodical investment strategy. Bonus, it's one I developed on my own from 1st principles, and thus is ideally suited to my experience, values, and goals.

    It's been a good quarter, surprisingly enough. Forward!

    Cheers!
    Lodger
     
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  12. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    It could be that TA doesn’t work, it could be that it does. Fact is that thousands of investors base their decisions on TA patterns, making them a self-fulfilling prophecy. So even if TA doesn’t work (I think it does), the fact that so many act on it makes it very valuable.

    I regularly study charts, especially candlesticks, and and often see that TA patterns have a predictive value. The strongest ones imho are:

    - Trend lines that get broken (especially downwards), resulting in a substantial move.

    - Trading ranges that are broken, resulting in a big move. Good example: TSLA breaking above the 380 range.

    - Retesting of an outbreak. Good example: TSLA bouncing of the top of the old trading range in March.

    - A ‘flag’ halfway through a move, indicating (when broken) that there’s another 50% move to go. This is one of the best predictive patterns I know.

    - Shoulder-head-shoulder pattern. This can also be inverse. Possible example of this one: TSLA completed an inverse shs-pattern when it broke upwards through 850 in the second bull run. Price target is 1350 (based on the height of the head (850-350). Let’s see if that works out.
     
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  13. MABMAB

    MABMAB Member

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  14. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    I thought about writing this down before, but I wanted to wait until the pattern was completed. It was yesterday.

    After the meteoric rise of 490 points from 930 to 1420 the SP was starting to build what looked like a flag over the last few days. Such a pause pattern is usually formed half way through a move. Yesterday we broke out upwards, completing the flag. The goal has now become 1800 (bottom of the flag at 1310 + 490 points).
     
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  15. MABMAB

    MABMAB Member

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    Friday closing action bullish AF.
     
  16. vwman111

    vwman111 Member

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    Does the flag provide a timeframe?
     
  17. Robertj

    Robertj Supporting Member

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    History may give an appreciation of what might happen
    In 1980 the market dropped 25 % , this year Covid 33%
    In 1980 it bottomed April and rose by July to hit its prior peak
    and did not have a major correction until, small in September , bigger in October, and November
    Is this where we are headed
     

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  18. winfield100

    winfield100 Supporting Member

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    for a bit of nostalgia..............
    upload_2020-7-13_10-39-34.png
     
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  19. Cherry Wine

    Cherry Wine Supporting Member

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    If price sticks at these ~$1680 levels, we'll end with a shooting star candle on the daily chart.
     
  20. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Seems like that formation should have an exception for when there is a $100 gap up on open.
     

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