TSLA Technical Analysis

[Curt Renz]

Craig Johnson of Piper-Sandler - Today:
• TSLA—Shares are trading near the midpoint of a rising price channel.
• Currently retesting the 10-/30-week WMAs.
• RS has inflected higher off the midline.
• Use the current pullback as a buying opportunity.

 

[MABMAB]

What does it do now? Nothing much, for a long time. This will take a long time to sort out. There will be fits and starts and failures.

All bullish price projections get pushed back by what I judge to be six months.

I was hoping to be proven wrong...

 

[Curt Renz]

Today TSLA plunged beneath both its 50 and 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages). Not good. My weekly TSLA covered calls collapsed to nearly worthless today (meaning I'll likely keep the full premium), so I wrote more calls expiring next week a little early. Capital gains tax rules dissuade me from selling any more shares this year than the few I already have. In any event, I still expect Tesla to continue proving its profitability and industry dominance, then for my shares to move significantly higher once the macro worries dissipate.

 

[bkp_duke]

Today TSLA plunged beneath both its 50 and 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages). Not good. My weekly TSLA covered calls collapsed to nearly worthless today (meaning I'll likely keep the full premium), so I wrote more calls expiring next week a little early. Capital gains tax rules dissuade me from selling any more shares this year than the few I already have. In any event, I still expect Tesla to continue proving its profitability and industry dominance, then for my shares to move significantly higher once the macro worries dissipate.

So in the short term . . . it's anyone's guess where the bottom is.

 

[bxr140]

So in the short term . . . it's anyone's guess where the bottom is.

I mean, technical trading is all about informed guessing--we can't predict the future, we can only aggregate "the signs" in a probabilistic analysis environment.

--Right now 200ma is trying to provide support. I don't read it as an entry point if it holds, but its still something to watch.
--If we drop below yesterday's low...that's probably a reasonable short entry if one is willing to set a tight stop loss. (I wouldn't take a large position in that)
--I like the march bottom at 760-780 as a reversal entry. If we drop below 780 and make a strong reversal back up, that's a pretty good entry for me.
--There's also pretty strong price volume around 680-700 and the late feb bottom at 700, and while that's not as consolidated an indicator set as I'd like, I'll still be watching for a long entry.

 

[MABMAB]

TA/ seasonality commentary.
Perhaps self fulfilling prophecy because everyone knows.
Sell in May and stay away. Vacay, like WS does.
Time for back and forth a lot, return to regular schedule programming sometime in the fall.
World events still not helping.
Political cycles- US, perhaps now is not the best time? Maybe post election and 3rd yr of presidency.

Aint no cure... except time

 

[bxr140]

Buddy pointed out this uptrend to me--look for a sizable drop if we make a strong break below the TL.

 

[Criscmt]

I mean, technical trading is all about informed guessing--we can't predict the future, we can only aggregate "the signs" in a probabilistic analysis environment.

--Right now 200ma is trying to provide support. I don't read it as an entry point if it holds, but its still something to watch.
--If we drop below yesterday's low...that's probably a reasonable short entry if one is willing to set a tight stop loss. (I wouldn't take a large position in that)
--I like the march bottom at 760-780 as a reversal entry. If we drop below 780 and make a strong reversal back up, that's a pretty good entry for me.
--There's also pretty strong price volume around 680-700 and the late feb bottom at 700, and while that's not as consolidated an indicator set as I'd like, I'll still be watching for a long entry.

Do you mind sharing the thought process, knowledge behind arriving at these points/views?
Would appreciate pointers to the learning resources to gain the knowledge.

 

[willow_hiller]

Never tried my hand at TA before, but this seems too obvious not to mention. Looks like we're bouncing off of the 50 day SMA (in light blue) at around 936. Good things lie beyond if we can cross?

 

[MABMAB]

Do you Zanger?

https://twitter.com/RandyOpper

Above is a link to the chat moderator and likely operator of long time chart pattern report. I used to follow and pay for newsletter/chat. Those that follow/trade/invest in TSLA might find it interesting to follow along what he thinks over time. He'd recently been short. if he is talking online about being short tesla, or covering tesla, I bet there is a LOT of money piggy backing along. They like many seem to favor a top down approach to the market and find the market unhealthy right now,

I don't follow or pay them any longer but they can help accelerate ones trading education (beyond the bimbo jimbo offered up here)

 

[bxr140]

Do you mind sharing the thought process, knowledge behind arriving at these points/views?
Would appreciate pointers to the learning resources to gain the knowledge.

I've got a bunch of long emails in this thread and also the options thread (back before I had to stop reading for sake of my sanity...) that are probably worth finding...but in general, technical analysis is all about statistically relevant pattern recognition and that's all I'm doing. There's a zillion indicators out there and I'm sure all of them work at some point for someone--there's really no wrong way to TA as long as it works--but my preference is to generally focus on the classic indicators. Everything really all comes back to various methods of support or resistance, and I'm a fan of entering on confirmation rather than speculation (so, don't enter when price retraces to a moving average, enter when price makes a strong reversal on that moving average. I also like tight stop losses for when I'm wrong (though at times my discipline may take umbrage with that preference...), and early reduction/exit of positions, especially on quick wins. Put another way, I try to enter on confirmation and exit on speculation.

Generally I use:
--50 and 200MA
--Classic/obvious trendlines (people can get crazy with obscure trendlines)
--Price-volume (this is largely an indicator of institutional trading)
--Strong highs and lows

There's plenty of content out there on these (and way more), for me its mostly understanding an indicator and using it in backtest and real-time environments, rather than hyper studying.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Carnage in the market as I type. I'll be happy if the SP bottoms out at 750 or above because at least that will be a higher low which to me is an important, positive technical indicator.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Carnage in the market as I type. I'll be happy if the SP bottoms out at 750 or above because at least that will be a higher low which to me is an important, positive technical indicator.

Looks like you timed the MMD bottom to the minute. I’ll be happy if that was it, 800 TSLA, 300 QQQ, 400, SPY. Nice round numbers to make the OCD traders happy.

 

[Curt Renz]

The lower Bollinger Band line for TSLA has proven supportive since early December. Today it stands around $636 and may have checked the drop.

 

[Curt Renz]

The lower Bollinger Band line for TSLA has proven supportive since early December. Today it stands around $636 and may have checked the drop.

Too late to edit. Should have written $633.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

It took until 11,493 to break TSLA below the breakout. Market is showing the bears are not quite done yet.

Vix is going to try to break 28 and go lower. If it does, we can get to the lowest Vix ignoring expiry day since May 4th. A close below 27 would be very bullish.

Breaking above 679-680 and holding, can allow a test of 700. The hammer down on 680 was bigger than the 670, so this might need a Nasdaq breakout to 11,580. A Nasdaq bleed below 11,520 likely will have a re-test of 670

Could you please elaborate on this 680 barrier? Doesn’t look significant to me, but I know nothing. Pulled those posts from the general investor round table for discussion here where it belongs.

 

[bballshinobi]

$680 was the previous low before we had a bounce, so I guess that's naturally what people looked for:

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Thanks @bballshinobi . So, in my book, that means not closing above $680 today (or maybe soon, like tomorrow), is a bad sign, and we will continue down on the trend line from $880 since early May. Ouch, not looking very promising, especially since today is a Monday and the macros are up. Am I reading that correctly?

 

[bballshinobi]

Thanks @bballshinobi . So, in my book, that means not closing above $680 today (or maybe soon, like tomorrow), is a bad sign, and we will continue down on the trend line from $880 since early May. Ouch, not looking very promising, especially since today is a Monday and the macros are up. Am I reading that correctly?

I think it's just neutral that we came down from $680. If you are a trader, that's just a sensible spot to take profit if you bought the current bottom of $632 (a 7% profit, and much more if you traded options). It looks like we are just going to consolidate around $670 since it's conveniently the 23% fib level between the previous resistance at $786 and the current bottom of $632. I think TSLA and AAPL were late to the crash party. For awhile they were holding up much better compared to to QQQ and other tech stocks. Since we were late to the crash party, maybe we are just running late to the rally party as well.

Personally, I am getting cautiously bullish here. The downside from here is perhaps $550? One final flush to get all the paperhands out?

 

[DarkandStormy]

TSLA has entered the "death cross" this morning (200 day SMA above the 50 day). In the past for TSLA this has meant...precisely nothing. Carry on.