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TSLA Trading Strategies

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Dec 31, 2014.

  1. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    This thread replaces the "Social Chat" thread. Please use this to discuss strategies for profiting from TSLA equities and options.
     
  2. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Well, I have gone from 'neutral' to cautiously optomoistic in the short term heading into NAIAS. I was sitting on stock/J17 LEAPS only but the Jan23 240 calls at .60-.70 cents were too tempting. I guess I am just hoping for another NAIAS surprise.
     
  3. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    Beta version of MX? :cool:
     
  4. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    I always like your optimism!! But, no X or model3. I suspect the 'D' and hopefully some good tid bits that might move the stock a bit.
     
  5. eepic

    eepic Member

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    It's funny cuz we were almost sure beta X would be shown at NAIAS 2014 :crying: lol.

    On the other hand, v6.1 started rolling out and it has ACC! Thread for those interested Firmware 6.1
     
  6. maxwell

    maxwell Member

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  7. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I'm really not sure that NAIAS is going to being any surprises; in particular, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical that Tesla will roll out the Model X then. I do think there's good news ahead with a Model X unveiling sometime in Jan/Feb, along with a good earnings call, so I'm continuing to hold the March calls I bought on the last dip. I'm not ballsy enough to buy weeklies without more confidence in the news stream.
     
  8. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    Hope to re-enter within the technical borders of the stock (200-DMA).
     
  9. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    Well, I don't know which thread this fit in. I'll just let the moderator decide.

    I have executed a straddle strategy for targeting 1 month after the predicted conference call. Using stock as the call and put options as the downside. I feel that 200 is a good technical level due to the round number effect. The other half in stock helps reduce the premium cost. In exchange for less upside. This is also done for tax purposes related to my current situation

    This is the first step in several step to come. Going forward, a second strategy will be executed with the expectation of a W forming. However temporarily that might be.
     
  10. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    You make a good point about short-term calls. This is indeed a volatile time. On the other hand, if you weigh the downside potential for the stock to the upside potential of the coming year, it's a great time to buy shares and long-term calls. The release of Model X and the inevitable ramping up of production numbers will surely boost tsla price. I suspect strong guidance at the 4Q ER will have a similar effect. Analysts, for the most part, are maintaining their very bullish price targets for TSLA. For this reason, we find buyers for TSLA even on days like today when the broader markets are down, oil prices are down, and a competitor makes an important announcement.
     
  11. Maknyuzz

    Maknyuzz Member

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    I think ~195-200 is a good point to nibble. There is a possibility we re-test 192. why? because it's the last low that we encountered. I am nibbling around that area too. Next low that we encountered is 178 back in May. I will be more aggressive at 178-180. I will be very aggressive if no fundamental change and we drop to 160, which I would not rule out, it's still possible.

    I know many of you will get butthurt reading this unconvinient post. but please stop labelling people a psycho FUD for posting something negative. In the past many people has disagreed with me, and I never had any issue, just when people labelled me FUDster, I don't know why I became a sensitive angry degenerates..
     
  12. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    I agree 100%. Don't play the short term game. That's gambling, not investing.
     
  13. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Hopefully I am not labeled a FUDster as I have a good amount of money in TSLA and J17 LEAPS that will take a hit with your scenarios....but I agree with much of this particular post of yours. Short term we are in what I referred to in another post as 'insane mode' where we could see sub $200. Long term buying in now versus my next big buy in PT in the 180s will yield some very nice returns.

    Another note: Short interest is out after market close today.
     
  14. Maknyuzz

    Maknyuzz Member

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    Yeah, I think $180 would be yummy, even more $160, if no fundamental change. Now that I have calmed down, I am not going to post much like these past few days. Not that you guys will miss me anyway. We need DaveT/FluxCap to post their long rational megathread again.

    Also the reason I posted things like: "we are from 260 to 200 in 2 weeks, or $30/week", simply because I wanted to tell this forum that I thought the selloff might be overdone, and a bounce was about to happen, because otherwise, if we were to continue at that rate of $30/week, we would be $7 in 7 weeks. Is $7 in 7 weeks rational? No of course! so my point really was that it was oversold. $7 in 7 weeks were unlikely to happen, so at $200 I would nibble a bit.
     
  15. sub

    sub Member

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    Ive be tried to play TSLA short term over the last 18+ months with little to no success. Did well with all the shares I bought under $100 though!

    i have one ITM J16 leap and everything else is shares including some I bought at 200 this morning. I have zero concerns long term, I sleep better at night ignoring the weekly ups and downs. I do enjoy the discussion in this thread however because it does matter for long term also. My vote was one thread so we can discuss it all in one place.
     
  16. eepic

    eepic Member

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    Nah, I think we should all be receptive to positive and negative views, keep 'em coming. So long as it's not making far-fetched claims not backed up by anything concrete.

    I agree that short term we could break below $200 by something like 10%, but I personally see so much more upside that could happen at any time given the catalysts we know coming this year. I just bit and threw another slug into shares - worse case it goes down before going back up, meh.
     
  17. v12 to 12v

    v12 to 12v Active Member

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    That is where my head (and money) it at right now.

    - - - Updated - - -



    When I heard that in the announcement I didn't get the impression at all that it would be specifically for the Model X.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Not sure how the info got lost in the quote, but you can go to vgrinshpun's OP.
     
  18. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Yes. I am buying J23 220s. Gambling (yep that is what it is) that EM will deliver some good news in the QandA tonight and that while maybe not the info/jump we got last year that we will get a small pop.
     
  19. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Anyone thinking it's time to convert shares to LEAPs? I understand that this is how Teslanaires are made. I've been doing it slowly over the last couple months and so far it's been pretty ugly and I obviously wish I had waited. But sub-$200 with a bright future on the horizon is really tempting.
     
  20. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    I have considered that strategy for a while. When converting, tax considerations come into effect and how much tax liability I want to introduce in a year. There may be some advantages to conversion at this low sp due to incurring lower tax liability on lower capital gain than if selling later, assuming sp rise in the future.

    I am on a learning curve regarding leaps, making me hesitant to convert until I get a better grip on leaps. Instead of converting my shares, I have been buying (and selling) leaps with new money.
     

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