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Yes. I am buying J23 220s. Gambling (yep that is what it is) that EM will deliver some good news in the QandA tonight and that while maybe not the info/jump we got last year that we will get a small pop.

Well, last year this worked great.............this year, not so much..........:confused:
 
Well, last year this worked great.............this year, not so much..........:confused:

Ouch.

Put some of this on:
BurnGelSachet.jpg
 
Just wondering - is there a detectable pattern that when Elon speaks the stock price generally drops, but when he tweets it generally rises? Attached maybe to hyperbolic expectations when he is an announced speaker vs. surprise nature of tweets?
 
Ouch.

Put some of this on: View attachment 69210

Thanks. I need that!:wink:. Good news, as we have discussed before...bet the out house on that (and boy it stinks!) but not the farm. I do have some protective puts Jan 23 180s.....but not enough to buy the 'burn aid'. I will be shopping today once I get the nerve to open the TDAmeritrade account and put colored glasses on so I don't see the red.
 
It seems to me that Elon, who does so much good and right in his job, sometimes can not do right by the media. No matter what he says gets twisted, blown out, misinterpreted, etc.

Perhaps the problem is the media and people's expectations.

I agree, he can just be himself and that's all anyone can really do. I'm in for the long haul and even though I bought in at 203 and is down, I feel it will be worth more than Google someday!
 
I agree, he can just be himself and that's all anyone can really do. I'm in for the long haul and even though I bought in at 203 and is down, I feel it will be worth more than Google someday!

Ditto on being in for the long haul, but tracking this forum to understand if price movements are significant or FUD- induced buying opportunities. So, any advice/predictions on when to catch this falling knife?
 
Ditto on being in for the long haul, but tracking this forum to understand if price movements are significant or FUD- induced buying opportunities. So, any advice/predictions on when to catch this falling knife?

Not worth trying. I know this is the short-term thread but if you are in for the long haul just keep buying on these large drops and cost average down.
 
Ditto on being in for the long haul, but tracking this forum to understand if price movements are significant or FUD- induced buying opportunities. So, any advice/predictions on when to catch this falling knife?

whatever you have in mind to buy, I'd do half to two-thirds here. I think largest point Elon made Tuesday that could be spun was the no GAAP profit until 2020 comment. Now we have this piece saying that Tesla is putting word out that media misinterpreted Musk, and there's no reason for analysts, investors to revise models (in contrast to media suggestions that analyst eps in out years, i.e. $8 eps in 2018, are to be gutted). If Tesla gets a convincing message out on this, I think low 180s about the worst of it. we may or may not see that again before buyers move back in. catalysts picking up in early February. of course, a sharp broad market selloff could bring lower lows, but $190 is a bit over a 25% discount to fair value as I see it, and you said you're in it for the long haul, so I wouldn't be too concerned trying to figure out next general market move.
 
So, any advice/predictions on when to catch this falling knife?

Not worth trying. I know this is the short-term thread but if you are in for the long haul just keep buying on these large drops and cost average down.

Hockeythug and SteveG3 both have the right idea. Nobody knows for sure if more FUD and macro/oil events will allow a creep lower or if this stock will bound upward tomorrow on important news from Tesla. Hedge your bet by buying some now and some later (whether it is going up or down). When we're pushing $300 a share, your buy-in at 185 or at 195 won't make much difference. You will, however, likely regret sitting out an opportunity to buy TSLA for less than $200 a share.
 
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For what it's worth, around $185 is the bottom of the channel. I'd be tempted to buy calls, since Tesla's implied volatility is at an all time low, but the VIX is relatively high. Anyone more familiar with options and volatility know how to interpret this type of situation?
 
For what it's worth, around $185 is the bottom of the channel. I'd be tempted to buy calls, since Tesla's implied volatility is at an all time low, but the VIX is relatively high. Anyone more familiar with options and volatility know how to interpret this type of situation?
I'm not smart enough to interpret for anyone, however I will share this is exactly what I've done the last several days - Feb, Mar, Jun, Jan16. Near term ones are expecting good news at earnings call on meeting '14 production goals, '15 guidance, concrete Model X dates, Gigafactory Progress (since the weather has been good in the west, they might just say 'ahead of schedule'), Model 3 progress, Supercharger Network, Stores/Service Center Growth, etc. Mid-Term Jun15 is expecting a Model X reveal by mid-year, Jan16 is expecting Model X to be spectacular.

Your MPGe may vary.
 
I'm not smart enough to interpret for anyone, however I will share this is exactly what I've done the last several days - Feb, Mar, Jun, Jan16. Near term ones are expecting good news at earnings call on meeting '14 production goals, '15 guidance, concrete Model X dates, Gigafactory Progress (since the weather has been good in the west, they might just say 'ahead of schedule'), Model 3 progress, Supercharger Network, Stores/Service Center Growth, etc. Mid-Term Jun15 is expecting a Model X reveal by mid-year, Jan16 is expecting Model X to be spectacular.

Your MPGe may vary.
Similarly, my portfolio has Mar15 and Jan16 calls, plus a lot of TSLA. I'm not comfortable putting any money on the table for shorter-term calls because I don't see any news that is likely to drive up the price until the next earnings call. My Mar15 calls are a bet on the earnings call, and my Jan16 calls are a bet on the Model X.
 
This is so amazing. Today I closed all my Jan 15 position. I went back to my trade history and saw that the positions were created Jan 14. Basically all call strikes ended up losing money. If I had bought pure calls, my loss would've been catastrophic. It confirmed that the recent stock price is completely manipulated for the option writer's benefit.

The only reason I made money is from the complex strategy I used. Newbies to options should not be playing with options and should just stick with stocks. Unlike in the beginning, major funds are now paying attention to this stock and they are a lot smarter and well funded than you or me.
 
This is so amazing. Today I closed all my Jan 15 position. I went back to my trade history and saw that the positions were created Jan 14. Basically all call strikes ended up losing money. If I had bought pure calls, my loss would've been catastrophic. It confirmed that the recent stock price is completely manipulated for the option writer's benefit.

The only reason I made money is from the complex strategy I used. Newbies to options should not be playing with options and should just stick with stocks. Unlike in the beginning, major funds are now paying attention to this stock and they are a lot smarter and well funded than you or me.
I'd be curious to learn more about that strategy. Would be grateful if you can share (on the Trading Strategies thread, I suppose.)
 
This is so amazing. Today I closed all my Jan 15 position. I went back to my trade history and saw that the positions were created Jan 14. Basically all call strikes ended up losing money. If I had bought pure calls, my loss would've been catastrophic. It confirmed that the recent stock price is completely manipulated for the option writer's benefit.

The only reason I made money is from the complex strategy I used. Newbies to options should not be playing with options and should just stick with stocks. Unlike in the beginning, major funds are now paying attention to this stock and they are a lot smarter and well funded than you or me.

Sorry to hear that, man. The 8-ball will prove resurgent.

Can confirm that making investment returns is, in fact, hard.
 
So tempted to buy weeklies for next week. I feel it is being held down right now and will pop next week. Still picked up some March calls today feeling like I have a bit of a better safety margin. If it does pop $20 or so next week I'll sell the calls I bought today.