TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Tsunami update (of hurt)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by DonPedro, Apr 30, 2013.

  1. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    687
    Location:
    Oslo, Norway
    I posted recently that losses by shorts since Nov '12 amount to approx. $1bn. I think this is a fun metric to track. At the time of writing, the share price is gyrating around $57.50 (probably completely different by the time I post). Assuming that the short interest since yesterday is $29 million, that adds $72 million to the shorting bill. Interest adds another $2 million.

    Total short losses:

    Trading: $884 million
    Interest paid: $187 million
    Total losses from shorting: $1071 million
     
  2. avatar

    avatar Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2012
    Messages:
    187
    Location:
    Seattle, Washington, United States

    haha. I agree. This should be fun to track. :)
     
  3. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Model S - Sig. 283 EU

    Joined:
    May 11, 2012
    Messages:
    1,283
    Location:
    Gorinchem, Netherlands
    It's a shame. They could have used the money to buy the best car in the world (13,000 of them actually).
     
  4. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    687
    Location:
    Oslo, Norway
    That money has been redistributed to people who are far more likely to use it to buy that very car!
     
  5. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2013
    Messages:
    3,836
    Location:
    PA
    How very true. Count me as a one of hopefully many who will spend the fortunes wisely. Looks like my gains on positions held on margin will afford me top of the line P85. I am sitting tight for now - people taking profit out now might regret it.
     
  6. TD1

    TD1 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2012
    Messages:
    339
    Location:
    D
    love that thought
     
  7. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2,473
    But I already have one of each! I can't use another one!?
     
  8. Rifleman

    Rifleman Now owns 2 Model S's!!!

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Messages:
    936
    Location:
    Harrison Ohio
    Don't worry, there is always Model X
     
  9. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    687
    Location:
    Oslo, Norway
    So, from now on I will only be posting these updates after market close. :)

    Total short losses:


    Trading: $783 million
    Interest paid: $187 million
    Total losses from shorting: $970 million
     
  10. bacrossman

    bacrossman Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2013
    Messages:
    10
    Location:
    Seattle, Washington
    If you are looking for a reason to buy another, I am sure there are plenty of us who would enjoy a gift :)

    Hey thanks for the info DonPedro. It is a real trick trying to determine how much of the stocks' recent run is a result of a "short squeeze" and how much it is people buying because due to optimism around possible "short squeeze" and the May 8th release of Q1 financials.
     
  11. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2012
    Messages:
    1,822
    thanks Don- it's another great data point and pretty spectacular at that; I have a feeling it's going to get a lot worse by year end
     
  12. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    687
    Location:
    Oslo, Norway
    @bacrossman

    Yes it is. But please don't take this thread as anything else than an expression of joy at being at the right side of the trade (for the time being) and at Elon Musk being proved right yet again. The info here is not really useful investor info. :)

    As for the short interest, we do have a few data point elsewhere in this part of the forum. A few days ago there were no shares to short, which typically has meant 30-31 million short interest. Then yesterday luvb2b reported a lot of shares available for shorting. Over the past three trading days, the total volume has been 12,7 million - ~4 million above average. In lack of a better estimate, let us assume that this 4 million were shorts covering. In that case the short interest should currently be around 26-27 million. So still a healthy amount. I would be surprised if it really has fallen that much yet.
     
  13. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2013
    Messages:
    565
    Location:
    United States
    Not to mention new ones that have been born.
     
  14. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,347
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    With this huge runup in price, just look at what a marvelous shorting opportunity now exists!
     
  15. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2012
    Messages:
    1,868
    Location:
    Stoughton, MA
    Yeah, those who shorted at $30, and then $40 probably had similar thoughts :)
    How high is high, how high is the sky? Betting against Elon has proven to be a bad strategy historically.
     
  16. avatar

    avatar Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2012
    Messages:
    187
    Location:
    Seattle, Washington, United States
    this is exactly right. There is no reason at all to believe $55 is a "high" price for Tesla. My personal feeling is that tesla is undervalued. The fundamentals (if Elon's goals are hit) favor a $80 tesla this year - pessimistically. Go ahead and plug in the numbers yourself for the next 4 quarters at 5000 cars per quarter, ASP of $90K and an average margin of 19% for the entire year. Assume costs for R&D and business ops is the same as 2012. There is a clear fundamental case for a $80/share tesla right now.

    Once Tesla announces *how* they were profitable, the market will HAVE to wake up to this.
     
  17. Soflason

    Soflason Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    544
    Location:
    FL
    +1 :biggrin:
     
  18. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2012
    Messages:
    1,822
    agree with that. It's really a question of how long it will take for other investors to believe in those same projections. By the time they're obvious, the price will be on to a new projection..
     
  19. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2013
    Messages:
    3,836
    Location:
    PA
    I wholeheartedly agree. See my post Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - Page 79 for additional information to back the same point.
     
  20. ppl

    ppl Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2012
    Messages:
    247
    Location:
    great falls, va
    Ok before I have stated not in short squeeze but now it starts. The stock is no longer trading on company fundamentals. If you look at mid day volume dropped dramatically and price stayed constant. Flat line. Covering without raising price. Very few shares shaken loose. Later only way to buy more was dramatic rise in price. No where near enough shares sold to cover. We'd evening must be looking very scary to shorts as price approaches 60. Expect more of same tomorrow perhaps accelerating as report approaches. I like tsunami analogy water approaches slowly but keeps coming
     

Share This Page