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Tsunami update (of hurt)

ShortSlaver

Member
Apr 19, 2013
565
0
United States
Can a short squeeze happen in the after hours? In other words, is it possible for the spike and drop to both happen between now and tomorrow morning?

It can begin but this one isn't ending right away. There will be a lot of people waking up with margin calls from their broker tomorrow. With the big spike the other day and the collapse yesterday, we likely saw even more short activity occur.

Expect very steady bullish activity looking forward, especially tomorrow.
 

rolosrevenge

Dr. EVS
Feb 7, 2009
1,864
120
And this is why I haven't sold any shares since Model S started shipping, playing the volatility game is fun, but if you miss a move like this, you're out so much more.
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,488
83,868
USA
No, volume is not high enough. They need several weeks worth of volume to get out, and after hours only provides a fraction of a day's worth.

Indeed, listen for rolling thunder for the next few days, perhaps weeks. However, for this to truly become a massive short squeeze, shareholders must stand pat and not sell to shorts hoping to cover. If everyone remains patient, the sky's the limit. TSLA is a once in a generation shooting star that trips up range traders and squashes short sellers. Don't be surprised if before Elon sells out, Tesla Motors becomes the world's largest automobile manufacturer.
 
Indeed, listen for rolling thunder for the next few days, perhaps weeks. However, for this to truly become a massive short squeeze, shareholders must stand pat and not sell to shorts hoping to cover. If everyone remains patient, the sky's the limit. TSLA is a once in a generation shooting star that trips up range traders and squashes short sellers. Don't be surprised if before Elon sells out, Tesla Motors becomes the world's largest automobile manufacturer.


Lets see what happens tomorrow.
 

JRod0802

Member
Dec 15, 2010
675
22
Boston, MA
Don't be surprised if before Elon sells out, Tesla Motors becomes the world's largest automobile manufacturer.

I thought Tesla wasn't targeting that. I thought they were targeting being a luxury car maker like BMW, Audi, or Mercedes. Wouldn't Elon rather be at the forefront of technology, developing the hard technology needed to make the EV revolution happen, and then allowing the other OEMs (like Toyota, GM, etc.) to sell the cheap EVs?

Personally, I believe they're going to have a market cap somewhere between Porsche and BWM by the early 2020s. And by 2030, be bigger than BWM. After that I feel like they'll just maintain. I'm guessing that Elon will be out by the early to mid 2020s to focus on SpaceX.

Am I completely off here?
 
Jun 20, 2012
90
354
New Jersey, USA
I thought Tesla wasn't targeting that. I thought they were targeting being a luxury car maker like BMW, Audi, or Mercedes. Wouldn't Elon rather be at the forefront of technology, developing the hard technology needed to make the EV revolution happen, and then allowing the other OEMs (like Toyota, GM, etc.) to sell the cheap EVs?

Personally, I believe they're going to have a market cap somewhere between Porsche and BWM by the early 2020s. And by 2030, be bigger than BWM. After that I feel like they'll just maintain. I'm guessing that Elon will be out by the early to mid 2020s to focus on SpaceX.

Am I completely off here?

No, I think you have basically the right model. Elon never has said it directly, but for whatever reason I've always imagined that it's BMW he is modeling. They sell in enough volume to matter, and unlike Mercedes, Lexus, Audi, etc. they are not part of a larger car group, but remain independent. They sell, what, about a million cars a year, have a market cap in $50B range, and yet they retain a premium brand image. So, for me at least, it's not difficult to picture Tesla becoming a BMW.

What I find intriguing is that we see some anecdotal evidence that Tesla has the ability to broaden the premium/luxury market. I am not the first to point this out, but it seems there is a segment of the population that is spending more to buy a Tesla than they previously considered appropriate for past automobile purchases. Don't want to overplay the Apple analogy but it is not unlike people willing to pay more for a mac/iphone than a PC/whatever. I attribute this, BTW, to a sense that it is money well-spent for the quality bump, and the fact that they use it enough that they want that part of their day to be a high quality experience. I think a similar phenomenon may apply with a Tesla purchase. Someone is saying, "I don't consider myself wealthy, but for this particular segment of my life, I can afford and want to have a premium experience. I want to own a little piece of the future." Hence, I think there is the prospect of that cachet allowing them to function in the BMW market segment, but be a bigger company.
 

ShortSlaver

Member
Apr 19, 2013
565
0
United States
Indeed, listen for rolling thunder for the next few days, perhaps weeks. However, for this to truly become a massive short squeeze, shareholders must stand pat and not sell to shorts hoping to cover. If everyone remains patient, the sky's the limit. TSLA is a once in a generation shooting star that trips up range traders and squashes short sellers. Don't be surprised if before Elon sells out, Tesla Motors becomes the world's largest automobile manufacturer.

Exactly, and everything missing up to now has been an eagerness to sell. I hope the last day climb and fall has introduces enough buyers that are OK to make shorts pay right now as that has been the intention and this is the time everyone planned they could do if if they could. I was happy with AH's as the price was driven to a good place and volume wasn't completely crazy. In fact, it stagnated nicely showing that plenty of sellers hadn't hit their point yet. Lets hope it continues.
 

kenliles

Active Member
Jun 7, 2012
3,060
8,356
As a long term investor I think we will be better served without the massive short squeeze. I'd rather the shorts provide solid price support than clear to a massive squeeze. An investor that never sells, such as Curt is describing will just ride the squeeze up and back down, with less benefit. In addition, many who purchase at those massively squeezed prices will be hurt and likely disqualify otherwise longer term investors.
 

DonPedro

Member
Mar 28, 2013
688
1
Oslo, Norway
Nice day to update the Tsunamometer:

Total short losses since 26oct12 (based on avg. short interest of 29.48 million and 40% short interest rate):

Trading: $1,239 million
Interest paid: $200 million
Total losses from shorting: $1,439 million
 

joefee

Active Member
May 29, 2011
1,291
675
CA
I think the short squeeze (this go around) will be over next week and could approach 90-100 per share … hold on to your shorts!
 

ppl

Member
Nov 29, 2012
243
1
great falls, va
I think the short squeeze (this go around) will be over next week and could approach 90-100 per share … hold on to your shorts!
I like the way you said this go around. People don't learn from mistakes and rather than admit one we will see more short selling the higher this goes. The large sell off two days before report (10 million shares) were new short sellers who believed it would drop post report. The future short sellers will only believe the shorted at the wrong price, not that this company will thrive.

having said that, I have come to appreciate short sellers. They can certainly help drive a price down but also catalyze the upswing when they are wrong
 

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