ShortSlaver
Member
It can begin but this one isn't ending right away. There will be a lot of people waking up with margin calls from their broker tomorrow. With the big spike the other day and the collapse yesterday, we likely saw even more short activity occur.
Expect very steady bullish activity looking forward, especially tomorrow.
ShortSlaver
Member
Lloyd
Well-Known Member
ShortSlaver
Member
The amazing thing is this is low volume considering the short interest. Expect big things the next week.
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
- Feb 7, 2009
- 1,864
- 120
And this is why I haven't sold any shares since Model S started shipping, playing the volatility game is fun, but if you miss a move like this, you're out so much more.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Indeed, listen for rolling thunder for the next few days, perhaps weeks. However, for this to truly become a massive short squeeze, shareholders must stand pat and not sell to shorts hoping to cover. If everyone remains patient, the sky's the limit. TSLA is a once in a generation shooting star that trips up range traders and squashes short sellers. Don't be surprised if before Elon sells out, Tesla Motors becomes the world's largest automobile manufacturer.
I thought Tesla wasn't targeting that. I thought they were targeting being a luxury car maker like BMW, Audi, or Mercedes. Wouldn't Elon rather be at the forefront of technology, developing the hard technology needed to make the EV revolution happen, and then allowing the other OEMs (like Toyota, GM, etc.) to sell the cheap EVs?
Personally, I believe they're going to have a market cap somewhere between Porsche and BWM by the early 2020s. And by 2030, be bigger than BWM. After that I feel like they'll just maintain. I'm guessing that Elon will be out by the early to mid 2020s to focus on SpaceX.
Am I completely off here?
strangethingintheland
Member
No, I think you have basically the right model. Elon never has said it directly, but for whatever reason I've always imagined that it's BMW he is modeling. They sell in enough volume to matter, and unlike Mercedes, Lexus, Audi, etc. they are not part of a larger car group, but remain independent. They sell, what, about a million cars a year, have a market cap in $50B range, and yet they retain a premium brand image. So, for me at least, it's not difficult to picture Tesla becoming a BMW.
What I find intriguing is that we see some anecdotal evidence that Tesla has the ability to broaden the premium/luxury market. I am not the first to point this out, but it seems there is a segment of the population that is spending more to buy a Tesla than they previously considered appropriate for past automobile purchases. Don't want to overplay the Apple analogy but it is not unlike people willing to pay more for a mac/iphone than a PC/whatever. I attribute this, BTW, to a sense that it is money well-spent for the quality bump, and the fact that they use it enough that they want that part of their day to be a high quality experience. I think a similar phenomenon may apply with a Tesla purchase. Someone is saying, "I don't consider myself wealthy, but for this particular segment of my life, I can afford and want to have a premium experience. I want to own a little piece of the future." Hence, I think there is the prospect of that cachet allowing them to function in the BMW market segment, but be a bigger company.
ShortSlaver
Member
Exactly, and everything missing up to now has been an eagerness to sell. I hope the last day climb and fall has introduces enough buyers that are OK to make shorts pay right now as that has been the intention and this is the time everyone planned they could do if if they could. I was happy with AH's as the price was driven to a good place and volume wasn't completely crazy. In fact, it stagnated nicely showing that plenty of sellers hadn't hit their point yet. Lets hope it continues.
kenliles
Active Member
- Jun 7, 2012
- 3,060
- 8,356
As a long term investor I think we will be better served without the massive short squeeze. I'd rather the shorts provide solid price support than clear to a massive squeeze. An investor that never sells, such as Curt is describing will just ride the squeeze up and back down, with less benefit. In addition, many who purchase at those massively squeezed prices will be hurt and likely disqualify otherwise longer term investors.
Nice day to update the Tsunamometer:
Total short losses since 26oct12 (based on avg. short interest of 29.48 million and 40% short interest rate):
Trading: $1,239 million
Interest paid: $200 million
Total losses from shorting: $1,439 million
Total short losses since 26oct12 (based on avg. short interest of 29.48 million and 40% short interest rate):
Trading: $1,239 million
Interest paid: $200 million
Total losses from shorting: $1,439 million
kenliles
Active Member
- Jun 7, 2012
- 3,060
- 8,356
holy crap- that's another 50% from when you first figured those; amazing what those guys will do
I like the way you said this go around. People don't learn from mistakes and rather than admit one we will see more short selling the higher this goes. The large sell off two days before report (10 million shares) were new short sellers who believed it would drop post report. The future short sellers will only believe the shorted at the wrong price, not that this company will thrive.
having said that, I have come to appreciate short sellers. They can certainly help drive a price down but also catalyze the upswing when they are wrong
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