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Tsunami update (of hurt)

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#121
Total short losses 26oct12 - 03sep13 (10am):


Trading: $3,311 million
Interest paid: $231 million
Total losses from shorting: $3,542 million


Note that these are only the losses in the common. It is fair to assume a lot of shorting has taken place by means of options as well, in particular during the time when there were no shares available to short. So the Tsunamometer probably underestimates the hurt of the shorts significantly.


PS: For new readers of this thread, the reference is Elon Musk's promise of a "tsunami of hurt" for those shorting TSLA: http://www.siliconbeat.com/2012/09/13/video-elon-musk-tells-fox-business-that-tsunami-of-hurt-coming-for-those-shorting-tesla/
 
#124
Tsunamometer exceeding $4bn in shorting losses in less than 1 year.

Total short losses 26oct12 - 01Oct13 (close):


Trading: $3,765 million
Interest paid: $239 million
Total losses from shorting: $4,004 million




Note that these are only the losses in the common. It is fair to assume a lot of shorting has taken place by means of options as well, in particular during the time when there were no shares available to short. So the Tsunamometer probably underestimates the hurt of the shorts significantly.
 
#125
After a temporary (and partial) reprieve, Tesla shorts are almost back to the horrible place they were at in October.

Total short losses 26oct12 - 17Jan14 (close):


Trading: $3,584 million
Interest paid: $261 million
Total losses from shorting: $3,845 million






Note that these are only the losses in the common. It is fair to assume a lot of shorting has taken place by means of options as well, in particular during the time when there were no shares available to short. So the Tsunamometer probably underestimates the hurt of the shorts significantly.
 
#131
Time for new Tsunamometer© update!

Total short losses 26oct12 - 14feb14 (close):

Trading: $4,421 million
Interest paid: $270 million
Total losses from shorting: $4,691 million



Note that these are only the losses in the common. It is fair to assume a lot of shorting has taken place by means of options as well, in particular during the time when there were no shares available to short. So the Tsunamometer© probably underestimates the hurt of the shorts significantly.
 
#132
Wow! And perfect timing. I was just surmising with a couple of friends, we need an update on the DonPedro Tsunamometer I threw out a guess that wasn't this high as there remains a very large short position. Thanks much for this update. Makes for a great weekend!
 
#133
Me too! Tonight at dinner my wife asked if TSLA shorts are "making any money?" When we got home, I just happened to see the new Tsunamometer update, and read it to her. $$$. :cool: Thanks again DonPedro. ML
 
#134
Oh, how quickly time came again for new Tsunamometer© update! :)


Total short losses 26oct12 - 24feb14 (close):


Trading: $5,042 million
Interest paid: $271 million
Total losses from shorting: $5,312 million




Note that these are only the losses in the common. It is fair to assume a lot of shorting has taken place by means of options as well, in particular during the time when there were no shares available to short. So the Tsunamometer© probably underestimates the hurt of the shorts significantly.
 
#137
Mario, I am using a very simplified methodology. The short interest is updated every 14 days. I take the stock price at the start of that period and subtract the stock price at the end, and multiply with the average of the starting and the ending short interest for that interval. That is trading profit/loss.

This spring, the interest rate for the short positions was tracked daily on this forum, and at that time I used the day-to-day figures. Since the interest rate normalized, I am just assuming a 1% p.a. rate.

Now short interest has not been released since Jan 31, so I assume that it is constant. I then retrospectively adjust it when figures have been released.

So these numbers are just for fun. However, I think they give a reasonable estimate of the real outcomes. To be significantly different, one would have to assume that shorts are much better or worse than longs in timing the market day-to-day. I just don't believe that.

By the way, the Tsunamometer ignores the commissions paid, as well as any shorting profits/losses incurred in the derivatives market. There was a time when shorting TSLA stock was very difficult, and at that time short positions in the options market where actually priced at a premium (i.e. you could buy a synthetic long position at a discount). So there is reason to believe that there are also significant shorting losses in options.
 
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