Turn Model 3 + Cash into Model X

[ed94582]

I'm the SF Bay Area and got the Model 3 configuration email yesterday -- with delivery in 4 weeks Just pondering a few things:

1: Buy and configure the Model 3 and receive the last of the Tax Credits. Drive the Model 3 for say 1 year and use as a commuter car to offset miles on my 2016 P90D. The way I would configure it if I were driving it -- would be $55K plus tax = $60K (I need Autopilot). Sell it after a year for perhaps (say with 10K miles) for $50K? Take that $50K and add say $25K and buy someone's 2 year old Model X 90D or 100D with Autopilot with say 30K miles for $75K? Curious on thoughts if that is reasonable to folks? On both price expectations on selling the Model 3 and buying the Model X. After a year will have a Model S P 90D (current car ) and a Model X 90/100D)

2. Sell my 2016 Model S P90D pre facelift -- $127K MSRP -- fully loaded -- just Insane mode. Currently 23K miles. From what I gather I might be able to get $80K - $85K at the high end -- so would be taking a massive depreciation hit. Get the Model 3 and keep it. Take the $30K left over and add $60K now and get the Model X 100D with Autopilot and say 15K miles? Would have a Model 3 and Model X 100D in a month.

3. Somehow figure out a way to swap/transfer my Model 3 reservation with someone who owns a Model X (from most discussions -- seems very difficult if not impossible outside of buying the Model 3 and holding on to it for a year? Such as in scenario 1 above?

Or open to some other suggestions above?

Or maybe as other manufacturers EVs hit the market next year -- just hold out for something else.

Other notes: Currently I have a brutally long commute -- 40 miles each way in SF Bay Area traffic -- so EV HOV sticker and Autopilot are critically features for me. The Model X would be a replacement car for my wife who drives an ICE SUV now.

Many thanks.

 

[TampaRich]

You're going to eat $15k or so, in depreciation on a brand new car after the first year. Does not make economic sense to buy and sell in the first year. Put that money towards a Model X now, if that is your long term goal.

 

[HankLloydRight]

and receive the last of the Tax Credits.

There are at least two more quarters (probably three) where people can claim the full tax credit, so we're far from "the last" tax credits.

 

[JPUConn]

1. Production will be at or close to full ramp with newer/better features in one year. Resale in a year will be lucky to depreciate less than 30%.

2. To your advantage the used X prices will likely continue to come down as improved now battery tech rolls out.

Why not sell your S now, get the 3 to rack up the miles and invest the side $ in something you believe in and then in a year hop back into a used X?

Only 2 ways I see getting a return on a 3: Either buy and resell right away hoping to pocket the tax credit on your own and price higher due to short term supply/demand or keep for 5+ years and hope fsd + Tesla ride share becomes real/available and monetize then.

 

[ed94582]

There are at least two more quarters (probably three) where people can claim the full tax credit, so we're far from "the last" tax credits.

Yes you are right -- I probably should have said the "last" tax credits I will be able to qualify for... for me it's probably use it or lose it so to speak...

 

[ed94582]

1. Production will be at or close to full ramp with newer/better features in one year. Resale in a year will be lucky to depreciate less than 30%.

2. To your advantage the used X prices will likely continue to come down as improved now battery tech rolls out.

Why not sell your S now, get the 3 to rack up the miles and invest the side $ in something you believe in and then in a year hop back into a used X?

Only 2 ways I see getting a return on a 3: Either buy and resell right away hoping to pocket the tax credit on your own and price higher due to short term supply/demand or keep for 5+ years and hope fsd + Tesla ride share becomes real/available and monetize then.

I'm not sure if I will be able to sell buy and resell the Model 3 right away and still pocket the tax credit. That was the path I was thinking but I think I need to hold on to the car for awhile to qualify?

Let's say the Model 3 -- depreciates from $55K to $40K in one year. The net of the $7500 tax credit and the $4500 I need to pay in taxes is $3K. So $12K depreciation in 12 months. $1,000 per month. Yeah -- not that great.

Maybe my scenario 2 may make the most sense:

2. Sell my 2016 Model S P90D pre facelift -- $127K MSRP -- fully loaded -- just Insane mode. Currently 23K miles. From what I gather I might be able to get $80K - $85K at the high end -- so would be taking a massive depreciation hit. Get the Model 3 and keep it. Take the $30K left over and add $60K now and get the Model X 100D with Autopilot and say 15K miles? Would have a Model 3 and Model X 100D in a month.

I just have to get over the mental pain point of a $55K depreciation hit on my Model S P90D after 21 months and 23K miles of ownership...

 

[Iluvpcs]

Give 3 Order to a friend, drive the crap out of the p90d and not stress about depreciation because the worst part of the depreciation is done, plus you know it’s twice as fun as a 3 launching. Even at 100k-125k miles / 4-5 years old it’ll go for $50-60k as long as you have a year/two left on the 8 year warranty - miles aren’t the worst on these cars. Then find a nice X that meets your needs then.

 

[ed94582]

Give 3 Order to a friend, drive the crap out of the p90d and not stress about depreciation because the worst part of the depreciation is done, plus you know it’s twice as fun as a 3 launching. Even at 100k-125k miles / 4-5 years old it’ll go for $50-60k as long as you have a year/two left on the 8 year warranty - miles aren’t the worst on these cars. Then find a nice X that meets your needs then.

Thanks and good reminders. Let's say in 3 more years the P90D will have 75K miles and be worth $60K -- so ~$25K depreciation after 36 months or about $695 per month for the next 3 years. Not that bad for a 2 year old P90D.