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Uber AP ahead of Tesla

Discussion in 'Model S' started by whitex, Sep 20, 2016.

  1. whitex

    whitex Member

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  2. ShotgunF15E

    ShotgunF15E Member

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    Seriously? I'm not buying anything with bug eyes on the top of my car. It's a science project PR gimmick. If that's what it takes to turn a corner, I DON'T WANT IT. Tesla, please don't make my beautiful car ugly with a bunch of AP crap.
     
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  3. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Yup. Uber introduced self driving cars - with not one, but actually two drivers onboard at all times. Great improvement. :p
     
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  4. nagypite

    nagypite Member

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    One Uber AP is 100.000$
     
  5. Panu

    Panu Member

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    Google cars have driven without a driver for a long time. When comparing to Tesla we need to compare cars that anyone can buy from car dealer (or from Tesla) today.
     
  6. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    The Uber self driving cars are essentially a beta test of the technology. The units are very expensive and hardly fit for a production car.

    Tesla has the best tech in production and factory installed in a car. There are several technologies in various developmental/experimental stages that are more sophisticated.

    That's always the way with tech. If you buy the most sophisticated cell phone available in a store, there are several more sophisticated in testing stages out there.

    When Ford starts rolling cars off the production line with the kind of tech on those Uber cars that is:
    1) An affordable upgrade (say $5000 or less)
    2) Will work most places in the world and not just Pittsburgh
    3) And is compact enough that you don't have a huge unit on the roof of your car

    Then they will be ahead of Tesla in autonomous driving. Until then, it's just a real world test of some new tech.
     
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  7. Cattledog

    Cattledog Active Member

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    Yes, sort of a clown's hat on those cars. OK for Google and Uber to make these things and do research, they don't have to sell cars. If the Model S had one of those on top, I'm pretty sure we'd have that dreaded 'demand' problem everyone is concerned about. Carry on Tesla.
     
  8. whitex

    whitex Member

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    It sounds like you'd rather have lane keeping over antonymous driving as long as it looks better to you - nothing wrong with having a preference of esthetics over function.

    True, however google cars were driven by google personnel only, and not offering rides for profit to the general public. Uber is first there.

    As I see it, the edge this gives Uber is as follows:
    1. They get miles driving in real city traffic in autonymous mode, dealing with real situations. Tesla gets miles, but not in city traffic and nowhere near the available data (Tesla has less sensors but very limited on how much data each car can upload every day).
    2. They perfect their "ugly" cars until they can actually drive people around autonymously
    3. They deploy more ugly cars for actual profit, but even at break even or a small loss the value is in the data (TB's of data per day per car requiring daily data dumps, orders of magnitude more data than Tesla can possibly collect via wifi or modem)
    4. They use the data from the ugly cars to feed into deep learning systems, then see what is the minimum set of sensors that is needed to sustain autonomy. Once they have a system that can actually taxi people around with all the ugly sensors, that is priceless data to train a deep learning system. Think if you had to learn how to drive with just one eye while deaf - much better to learn with 2 eyes and sound and then teach yourself how to still drive with just 1 eye and with no hearing.
    5. Then they deploy an actual antonymous taxi service, with possible remote human override (when the car detects it has issues, control can be transferred to a remote operator)
    6. They license the system to car manufacturers

    This model is different than Tesla's. Which one is better remains to be seen.

    PS> I am not crazy about Uber as a company, but that doesn't stop me from recognizing if they are doing something interesting.
     
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  9. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    In some ways I kind of like the direction Uber and Lyft are taking in regards to autonomous driving.

    They can shuttle people between Point A and Point B where all they have to do is to make sure the car can autonomously drive between those two points.

    Then they can slowly start expanding it to more areas.

    They don't have to get it working for every area. Uber already has the mechanism for how to do this within their business model. It will just be a different type of Uber service.

    I expect to see true autonomous driving through Uber well before I see it from Tesla.
     
  10. Mike K

    Mike K Member

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    It must feel terrible working for Uber. Constant rate cuts, encouraging customers not to tip and then rolling out technology that not so subtly conveys that they intend to completely eliminate the human driver. "Come work for us! We'll pay you pennies and we intend to fire you the moment technology allows us to do so."
     
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  11. Drivin

    Drivin Member

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    Why? Isn't it about the state of the art rather than sales?

    Besides not "anyone " can buy a car from Tesla. You need serious money or credit to afford a $70k car.
     
  12. John Stuckey

    John Stuckey Member

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    Exciting times. I'm happy about electric vehicles, AP and moving humankind forward. All good news.
     
  13. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    And that leads to the quadrillion dollar question: how much will it cost? At $100k, it's a cheaper driver. At $25k the new car market and day rental are hit with massive demand destruction, and taxis, mass road transit and short-term rental become one.
     
  14. GuyHall

    GuyHall Member

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    You're missing the big picture here. This is potentially a huge revolution in transportation. The combination of electric vehicles with their low cost of ownership and low maintenance, and dispatchable transportation like uber and Lyft, and the autonomous driving will trigger a very disruptive transformation. The future looks more like using an app and requesting a car be brought to you and then deliver you where you need, at a very low cost. It changes everything. How about a sleeper car? How about a party car? How about a quiet work space or reading car? How about shuttling your kid to soccer? How about delivering a package?

    The two pilot programs in Singapore and Pittsburgh are very controlled test programs with drivers in the car monitoring activity and willing to take it over at any time. Of course the goal is no steering wheel foot petals.

    To those that will never want to give up their own Driving Experience I understand. Of course it sounds a lot like the folks today that are saying they don't want to give up the noise, the shifting and the rumble of those powerful gas cars.

    The expected time line for this is 5 to 10 years.

    My personal hope is that this will take place before I'm old enough to have my kids take my kids away.
     
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  15. Beryl

    Beryl Member

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    True. The "ahead of Tesla" portion in the thread title makes effective click-bait, IMO.

    Totally agree. There are advantages over using a car service in lieu of purchasing a vehicle no matter how it is being driven. Even with a Tesla in my garage, there are times I will call Uber so this is great news.
     
  16. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Active Member

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  17. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    Julian Cox has a great lecture out there where he outlines how fully autonomous EVs will collapse the existing car market and there will be a shift towards ride sharing rather than car ownership, but I don't think it will be as universal as some think.

    Initially autonomous ride sharing will be a rarity only available in some urban areas and it will carry a premium. It will become more widespread, and if it gets cheaper than owning a beater car, it will become very popular among the poorer segments of society as well as among those who don't want to be bothered to have a car.

    There are some downsides that will be counter trends though. I think most people who can afford to own a car will continue to do so unless they live somewhere like NYC where it's a lot of trouble to own a car vs other means of transport. Elon has talked about people buying M3s and then having them driving autonomously on Uber or some similar service when they aren't using it. For people who can just barely afford the car, that will happen, but most people who can afford the car won't put it into those services because they won't want the car to get funky.

    Most people are considerate, but some people become a bit less considerate when they feel nobody is looking. If they are in a car with no driver, they are more likely to do things they would never do if there was a driver, even if there is a camera. A car with a driver can also more quickly gauge that a passenger is about to vomit from too much drinking than an AI. And a physical driver can help get a drunk person out of the car before they vomit where an AI can, at best, just stop and open the doors.

    For people renting out their cars to these services, cleaning will become more of a chore. I also think there will be a number of deep pocketed players who will jump in and pretty much monopolize the market and force the individuals out. An Amazon cab company is going to have a better rep than some anonymous guy's car. Amazon cabs can advertise daily cleaning of the cars and a standard for cleanliness individuals can exceed, but it will be a crap shoot for the public whether they get a clan Uber or not. People aren't going to be too happy if their car arrives and the person before puked their guts out and didn't report it.

    Because autonomous trip cars are going to get thrashed, many people who can afford their own car will continue to own a car. Despite being a more expensive transportation option, most Americans own one or more passenger vehicle. When they get in the car, they know what to expect. They don't need to interact with people who can be of a dubious nature (I've run into a few on buses and the light rail). And they can go where ever they want with no delays.

    Autonomous cars makes that a little less of an advantage, it eliminates most of the dubious people problems, but you can't be guaranteed the state of the ride, nor can you just jump in and go this minute.

    Another thing is autonomous cars will extend mass transit into lower density areas better than any other form of mass transit today, but for those living in rural areas, autonomous ride sharing is still going to be uncommon. If you do order a car, it can take an hour or more to get there. It will be much easier to take your own car.
     
  18. Tazman

    Tazman Member

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    I live in Mountain view, ca, encounter Google self driving cars multiple times daily and own a tesla with ap. I've taken to doing slightly erratic things to the Google cars to test them including as a pedestrian. Honestly, I think they are playing it a little close to the vest but are way ahead. Also don't forget that they have Google maps on millions of smartphones and it can gather data. Hundreds of thousands of cars using AP is a big advantage, but don't confuse speed for excellence. This is a very long high stakes game. Fire away.
     
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  19. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    It'd grow very fast, because autonomy fundamentally affects taxis, mass transit, and rental and it'd grow through offering a lower cost and greater convenience than current mass transit.

    Maybe _a_ car, but why own multiple cars, when alternatives are not just cheaper, but also pretty convenient and relaxing? Autonomy means traveling driveway to parking lot without having to drive. If you own your own car, unless you can afford an autonomous system, you're going to be spending a lot of time driving instead of doing something else.

    That would be true of some buyers. However, the aim of it would be to sell a premium car _with an autonomous system_ to buyers who couldn't otherwise afford one.

    Cameras.

    Cameras, and surcharges.
    Also note that you could very quickly build up a system of trust. And there's some safer rental. Would you worry about renting your car out to a shift worker for their commute?

    Autonomous cars won't get thrashed hard, because they'll drive themselves and they'll not drive like idiots. Prius taxis show that electrification allows for durability at high mileage.

    Autonomous shared cars won't have a driver so they'll have plenty of cameras instead. Expect a hefty surcharge if you mess up the car.

    Of course, the large majority of people live in urban and suburban areas. If those people stop buying cars, there could be an interesting effect on rural areas.

    But to me the biggest reason for people having a car is something you haven't mentioned: dealing with car seats for children.
     
  20. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    You probably would see fewer multiple car households. With autonomous cars, one car could be shared among the adults in a household if the timing works right. If their needs are staggered properly, someone could go to work, then the car returns home on it's own for the spouse to use during the day and then go back to work to pick up the first person at the end of the day.

    Those would be the people trying to rent out their cars.

    I'm talking about the interior. Even if people are considerate, the seats, carpets, doors, etc. are going to wear faster than a normal family car. And I think they are going to find that if there is no human they know is watching, at least some people will be less considerate.

    People who aren't considerate will eventually get banned, but there will be people who get their cars messed up in the meantime.

    The US is already seeing a big rift growing between urban and rural dwellers. It shows up in US politics. This could widen the gap further.

    Not having kids, I didn't think of that, but yes you're right. I've seen some of the drama parents of young children go through strapping the kid in before driving. You'd think they were shooting the kid into orbit. I find the whole thing kind of mystifying. We didn't have those things when I was a small child (car seats existed, but they were pretty simple compared to modern apparatus) and somehow we all survived.

    My father bought a new car when I was 6 months old and seat belts were optional equipment. He's always been big on safety, so he's always bought the most advanced safety equipment in his cars, but a lot of cars back then didn't have them. His focus on safety is really the only reason he can live alone at 96.
     

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