[UK centred discussion] The cat is out of the bag. True FSD will never happen for cars below HW4

[WllXM]

Sorry for the semi clickbait, but I'll explain how this looks like an admission to me.
During the latest earnings calls two days ago, Elon fully excluded a possible retrofit / upgrade from HW3 to HW4, either paid or free !
"The cost of retrofitting is quite significant so won't be economically feasible".

To me, this clearly means that everybody who purchased FSD with a reasonable expectation to use it in their current cars is set for disappointment. Elon quickly eludes by saying that after HW4 there will be HW5 and so forth, but let's not kid ourselves: There is a new set of hardware 4.0 because TV has somewhat failed using the current HW. Bringing true level 3 FSD in Europe also means a liability shift, which Tesla is not ready to accept yet. Hence the upgrade to high definition radars hinted in HW4 - which is somewhat an admission that pure TV will never bring true-FSD.

Now that this retrofit is out of the question, and after the dramatic price cuts of this month, it will also mean that the current vehicles will depreciate again tremendously once HW4 will be released in a year or so.

Listen in on the call from 29min here :

Thoughts?

 

[GRiLLA]

So you believe this despite Elon saying HW3 FSD will be 200-300% safer than a human, and all the FSD cars that are operating in the US today?

It's inevitable that hardware will become upgraded over time, ridiculous to think otherwise.

 

[UrbanSplash]

It’s always ‘catch up’ with Tesla though. Always something new about to come. Current purchases should be based on what the car can do now, not what might come in the future. Would be waiting forever.

I do think FSD should not be on sale in the UK currently.

 

[GRiLLA]

It’s always ‘catch up’ with Tesla though. Always something new about to come. Current purchases should be based on what the car can do now, not what might come in the future. Would be waiting forever.

I do think FSD should not be on sale in the UK currently.

Surely that's why EAP is sold in the UK and not the US ? I totally agree that people should buy based on what's available today, you can't logically value an unpredictable future feature.

 

[Adopado]

Now that this retrofit is out of the question, and after the dramatic price cuts of this month, it will also mean that the current vehicles will depreciate again tremendously once HW4 will be released in a year or so.

I doubt it. Nobody has a genuinely self driving car of any make so expectations are low to non-existent. Anyone buying a second hand car will be hoping to buy a car that can perform as closely as possible to what it could do when new ... nobody buys second hand cars with the expectation that it will become something else. (IMHO)

 

[Durzel]

EAP being available over here is a tacit admission from Tesla that FSD (the option) is almost completely useless and definitely not worth the asking price. It's possible (probable in my opinion) that they weren't seeing a good uptake of the option either.

They can offer EAP with 99% of the functionality at half the price without actually discounting the FSD option (and discrediting their own "FSD will always get more expensive with time" argument, or risking the ire of existing customers).

Now that this retrofit is out of the question, and after the dramatic price cuts of this month, it will also mean that the current vehicles will depreciate again tremendously once HW4 will be released in a year or so.

HW4 cars will be along sooner than you think, I would say. The FCC filing that requested confidentiality on the HD Radar expires on 07/02/2023, and it's expected that this will be part of the HW4 suite, along with the 5MP cameras that people kept saying were on recently delivered cars. There's also the Chinese docs showing the B-pillar heated cameras, etc. I would not be surprised to see HW4 on cars belng delivered at end of Q1 or latest Q2.

 

[WannabeOwner]

HW4 cars will be along sooner than you think, I would say

I agree. I don't think Tesla / Musk would want to mention it (nor any other company in similar situation) until it was already in / close to production, as such announcements are a sales-killer for current models.

 

[WllXM]

So you believe this despite Elon saying HW3 FSD will be 200-300% safer than a human, and all the FSD cars that are operating in the US today?

So you believe Elon claims...

Let's pause for a minute and remind ourselves that FSD means "Full Self Driving". This is what was sold to consumers. Here. In Europe. I'm not a lawyer but this is misleading.

If FSD was indeed ready or safer, Tesla would put their money where their mouth is and file FSD as truly autonomous Level 3, with the liability that ensues.
The fact that they are still years away from this, while other manufacturers such as Mercedes & Volvo will release models in 2023, beating Tesla to it, says it all.

 

[Jason71]

everybody who purchased FSD with a reasonable expectation to use it in their current cars

There may be people who had that expectation but in my opinion it was NEVER a reasonable one.
I would not worry too much about it though is since I predict it won't happen in for people on HW4 either. Certainly not in the UK.

 

[Artiste]

So you believe this despite Elon saying HW3 FSD will be 200-300% safer than a human, and all the FSD cars that are operating in the US today?

It's inevitable that hardware will become upgraded over time, ridiculous to think otherwise.

I don’t believe a word Musk says after all the crap he’s spouted about FSD and robo taxis over the last few years. The FSD cars operating in the US are still only Level 2 autonomy, and what works in the States doesn’t necessarily work here.

Still plenty of gullible people who hang on to his every word though.

 

[Hurricane]

So you believe this despite Elon saying HW3 FSD will be 200-300% safer than a human

The only way I can interpret that is Musk stating that HW3 FSD cars will still have a heck of a lot of accidents, just not as many as cars driven by humans. Not very reassuring.

But then I don’t believe anything Musk says anyway.

 

[Type2]

I doubt it. Nobody has a genuinely self driving car of any make so expectations are low to non-existent.

Expectation has certainly decreased over the years, no doubt helped by the realisation that Musk is a fantasist who constantly over promises and under delivers. But if you go back to mid 2019 there was lots of hype about FSD on this forum, with people truly believing it would become a reality quite quickly. The truth is that FSD has progressed very little in the UK since then.

 

[Zilla91]

Surely that's why EAP is sold in the UK and not the US ?

I believe EAP is now available in the US

 

[LiamPope]

So you believe this despite Elon saying HW3 FSD will be 200-300% safer than a human, and all the FSD cars that are operating in the US today?

It's inevitable that hardware will become upgraded over time, ridiculous to think otherwise.

'Safer' doesn't actually mean it can get the job done, let alone at hands off level 3. A car that encounters, say, a busy roundabout, and just says 'nuh-uh, can't deal with that' and gives up and stops is 'safe' - no collision occurred, nobody was hurt. Safer doesn't necessarily mean better or even as good as a human driver. Could be 100% safe and still utterly useless!

 

[pgkevet]

True FSD..yeah, really? I can see a level that allows proper motorway journeys without sudden freakish panička. I can see a version that allows a taxi service along main city streets. But comin to your door via double parked streets with a single carriageway and making decisions on when to pull into a gap to allow a head-on car to pass, or when to give way and reverse to a passing option...nah, not gonna happen with hw4 or HW5. And as for finding it's way from say rural Wales to rural Norfolk with singla track roads, potholes, straight sections with unsighted dips....

 

[Jejunjm]

Yeah....duh. Elon is a marketer scam artist.

Ford’s BlueCruise Remains CR’s Top-Rated Active Driving Assistance System - Consumer Reports

Consumer Reports reviews and ranks active driving assistance systems, including Ford BlueCruise, General Motors Super Cruise, and Tesla Autopilot.

www.consumerreports.org

 

[qwickshot]

Who actually cares?

We will be on hardware 6 by the time it’s allowed to be used on U.K. roads so a big shoulder shrug from me.

 

[Durzel]

Who actually cares?

We will be on hardware 6 by the time it’s allowed to be used on U.K. roads so a big shoulder shrug from me.

You're probably right. I wish I'd known that back in 2020.

 

[Jason71]

You're probably right. I wish I'd known that back in 2020.

I guess it wasn't just the car that couldn't read the signs back in 2020 then

 

[yessuz]

True FSD..yeah, really? I can see a level that allows proper motorway journeys without sudden freakish panička. I can see a version that allows a taxi service along main city streets. But comin to your door via double parked streets with a single carriageway and making decisions on when to pull into a gap to allow a head-on car to pass, or when to give way and reverse to a passing option...nah, not gonna happen with hw4 or HW5. And as for finding it's way from say rural Wales to rural Norfolk with singla track roads, potholes, straight sections with unsighted dips....

I would just love to see how FSD would act on the city streets in UK when it sees the double roundabout or when you have 2 lanes of traffic with the good and clear marking, but one lane is 60% parked with cars and you have to step over the line into upcoming traffic lane...

should be hilarious