Would be great if it came to UK but I am sceptical in the short term.
The UK/EU already has a 10% tariff on imports from USA, so this is also the current position. Any future UK saving comes either from a zero tariff on imports from GigaBerlin, or a zero tariff from USA after transition.
A UK Giga Factory would cost whole wad of cash to build and run and eat into any 10% saving, so likely only becomes attractive is if there is a No Deal Brexit and the UK GigaFactory costs < shipping & Tariffs from elsewhere. But bare in mind that with a No Deal with EU would likely come a trade deal with the USA, so costs of US imports could get massively reduced making Fremont imports cheaper.
I guess the other variable is if he UK tax payer pays Tesla sufficiently to make the venture worthwhile
Whilst the UK is an important and big market fro Tesla, a GigaFacory in the UK on the scale of GigaBerlin would likely be far too big, unless the UK would also export... which then begs the question to where? Under a No Deal the EU would clearly not be attractive for exports, with a zero EU Tariff a UK Giga does not make much sense (can import from EU for free), and USA is out with their local production... so where? Right hand drive for the small Irish market might make sense.. other than that.. we are looking at long shipping times.. so why build in the UK?, a Giga elsewhere seems more logical first.
The other big issue is political stability in UK, whilst we are now out of EU and heading out of transition soon, it is not impossible that closer EU ties will be reestablished to some degree by future administrations making long term returns hard to predict without (expensive) government guarantees.
Would be great if it came to UK but I am sceptical in the short term.
The UK/EU already has a 10% tariff on imports from USA, so this is also the current position. Any future UK saving comes either from a zero tariff on imports from GigaBerlin, or a zero tariff from USA after transition.
A UK Giga Factory would cost whole wad of cash to build and run and eat into any 10% saving, so likely only becomes attractive is if there is a No Deal Brexit and the UK GigaFactory costs < shipping & Tariffs from elsewhere. But bare in mind that with a No Deal with EU would likely come a trade deal with the USA, so costs of US imports could get massively reduced making Fremont imports cheaper.
I guess the other variable is if he UK tax payer pays Tesla sufficiently to make the venture worthwhile
Whilst the UK is an important and big market fro Tesla, a GigaFacory in the UK on the scale of GigaBerlin would likely be far too big, unless the UK would also export... which then begs the question to where? Under a No Deal the EU would clearly not be attractive for exports, with a zero EU Tariff a UK Giga does not make much sense (can import from EU for free), and USA is out with their local production... so where? Right hand drive for the small Irish market might make sense.. other than that.. we are looking at long shipping times.. so why build in the UK?, a Giga elsewhere seems more logical first.
The other big issue is political stability in UK, whilst we are now out of EU and heading out of transition soon, it is not impossible that closer EU ties will be reestablished to some degree by future administrations making long term returns hard to predict without (expensive) government guarantees.
Well reasoned but let me reply!
There is currently a 10% tariff from USA and there could be a 10% tariff from EU. Giga UK would have zero tariff - that's the future UK saving.
You say on No Deal the EU then comes to a trade deal with USA. Maybe, but they have a hard time reaching a US trade deal thus far and the US won't be bullied. Naturally the EU is offering zero tariff on cars to USA because they are net exporters, but France loves the Common Agricultural Policy as it subsidises their farmers and the USA will want to export more agricultural produce to the EU in return for a deal. That's the sticking point. Chlorinated chicken etc. If the EU does a trade deal with USA, it doesn't stop UK charging 10% tariffs on cars: their deal is irrelevant to us.
I don't see us exporting from Giga UK. Boris has an 80 seat majority and is still 10% ahead in the polls even with Dominic Cummings driving to Specsavers. We have political stability. Plenty don't like it, but an 80 seat majority is a good one. Plus he will do the boundary changes. With the red wall up North falling to the Tories and the Exchequer hosing cash at projects to try and lessen the impending depression I don't see Labour winning for a while. Anyway, Governments change periodically, but companies take longer term views.
The UK buys 2.3m new cars a year. With battery improvements and price reductions Tesla could comfortably take 15-20% of this. That's 300k-400k cars. Along with making batteries that the UK needs for powerwalls and powerstations and Tesla Glass Solar roofs they could fill up a Giga in the UK without export. Let's see what battery day brings. Vehicle to grid could also be highly significant.
I would love a Gigafactory in the UK, even if the latest ones elsewhere will be Terafactories. I don't think the factories have to be massive to make them economic. Jones and Womack in "Lean Thinking" argued the opposite.
I saw Elon give an interview a few years ago (maybe a TED talk?) when he said he thought the World needed 100 Gigafactories for batteries alone. There will be one in the UK - it's just a question of how far away that time is.
I can dream...
