[UK] used value of their Tesla cars plummeting?

[Ricecooker]

I'm currently waiting for my MY rwd, with delivery date keep pushing forward now November 06, and seeing recent happenings and arrival of MG4 (to challenge that a value EV can also be good) leaves me with an uneasy feeling. China's delivery time for the MY rwd is now 1-4 weeks, and I can't imagine what will happen as demand lowers, with Giga Shanghai alone set to produce 3000 cars per day. Tesla has huge margins and they can reduce prices in the thousands, and still make a healthy profit. Plus tough competitions, fighting for the same pie, BYD, NIO, and many startups may force Tesla to lower their price soon?

I will be trading in my M3 SR+ (as much as I love the car, it's just too hard to get in/out for my family), I just have a thought of getting something like the MG4 and ride it out till everything settles.

What are your thoughts regarding this? Or am I thinking too much?

 

[debrooker]

Why would they drop the price when they can sell every car they make. The only time i see them dropping the price is in the states to capitalise on state ev incentives.

If your worried about residuals then yes maybe we will see a drop from the crazy residuals we are seeing at the moment.

Pre covid this was just accepted when purchasing a new car.

 

[pgkevet]

The enthusiasts will tell you how prices have been holding etc..with no regard for past v future. Those of us bitten in the past by Tesla might give warnings but reality is no-one knows.
I can easily see Tesla going down the pan a po art from the Fanboys as the rivals get their acts together and alternatives to the supercharger network become practical.
Another reality check is that electricity will remain at a premium until either Ukraine gets sorted or real alternatives get built. Until then I'd forecast that petrol may look the easier practical alternative.
I'm hanging on to my s because of free charging but cost of repair out of warranty is frightening.

 

[Sparky750]

A car is a depreciating asset regardless of what you buy so just buy what works best for you. Recently because of supply shortages there has been a blip where some have actually profited from owning a car, our volvo xc90 only cost me around £900 to run for 3 years due to high prices sold back to volvo. This is starting to flatten out now and the status quo is returning so whatever you buy you're losing money on hence the attraction to many for leasing. There will never be a perfect time to buy so buy whatever suits best and enjoy it worry about residuals if/when it's time to change again. We've planed to keep the Y for 5 years and up to now are very pleased with it when it starts needing repairs or becomes unreliable it's gone.

 

[ACarneiro]

What worries me is the possibility of the battery pack dying after the warranty expires and me being left with a worthless lump of metal in a couple of years time.
I suspect the price of Teslas will only go down in the future, that’s the way cars work. The current situation is an anomaly that will go away soon enough…

 

[Sparky750]

What worries me is the possibility of the battery pack dying after the warranty expires and me being left with a worthless lump of metal in a couple of years time.
I suspect the price of Teslas will only go down in the future, that’s the way cars work. The current situation is an anomaly that will go away soon enough…

8 years warranty for the battery so the sweet spot for me to sell would be around 6ish years with some warranty remaining dependant of course on how they've been fairing a friends model S is still going strong with 130k 7 years of superchargeing and until his plaid is delivered which is God knows when in the UK he has no worries or plans to change. His experience gave me the confidence as a confirmed petrol head to buy the Y. It could be worse you could have a rangerover which has the best fuel economy of any car I ever owned purely down to the fact it went everywhere on a tow truck

 

[ACarneiro]

8 years warranty for the battery so the sweet spot for me to sell would be around 6ish years with some warranty remaining dependant of course on how they've been fairing a friends model S is still going strong with 130k 7 years of superchargeing and until his plaid is delivered which is God knows when in the UK he has no worries or plans to change. His experience gave me the confidence as a confirmed petrol head to buy the Y. It could be worse you could have a rangerover which has the best fuel economy of any car I ever owned purely down to the fact it went everywhere on a tow truck

Bearing in mind I put 65.000 miles on my car in just over 3 years, I don’t think the warranty will get to 8

 

[Sparky750]

Bearing in mind I put 65.000 miles on my car in just over 3 years, I don’t think the warranty will get to 8

In that case 4-5 years is your exit point if overly concerned. I've changed jobs now so super miles of 30-40k a year are a thing of the past thank god. The reading I've done and conversations with long term tesla owners seem to say the reliability should be good it's more the initial niggles when first buying. Like any car things do go wrong I'm sure but hopefully less so due to less components

 

[Js1977]

Bearing in mind I put 65.000 miles on my car in just over 3 years, I don’t think the warranty will get to 8

With things the way they were and are over the past couple of years, Im surprised you have not bailed out and renewed like most have (in case you haven't noticed) . From your stand point, Im afraid you are only holding on to a ticking bomb because you wish to do so. IMHO, If you do loads of mileage, you should bail out sooner.

 

[EVMeister]

I can easily see Tesla going down the pan a po art from the Fanboys as the rivals get their acts together and alternatives to the supercharger network become practical.

"The Competition Is Coming" is nothing more than a meme at this point. The EV market is not a zero sum game and as others gain traction that will not be detrimental to Tesla. There is a massive ICE market to displace and nobody is shifting as much of that ICE as Tesla. Nor do they have the resources or plans in place to actually do so. I agree with your other points, but that one is incredibly misguided. I have seen this kind of rhetoric parroted for many years - fortunately I ignored it, deeply researched the company and became a very happy investor in it. I'll continue to be, I have no doubt.

 

[Ricecooker]

"The Competition Is Coming" is nothing more than a meme at this point. The EV market is not a zero sum game and as others gain traction that will not be detrimental to Tesla. There is a massive ICE market to displace and nobody is shifting as much of that ICE as Tesla. Nor do they have the resources or plans in place to actually do so. I agree with your other points, but that one is incredibly misguided. I have seen this kind of rhetoric parroted for many years - fortunately I ignored it, deeply researched the company and became a very happy investor in it. I'll continue to be, I have no doubt.

Yes there is a massive ICE market to displace, but I would imagine the majority would not be with £50k+ cars. So what do you think of BYD, NIO, up coming Huawei's car, and so much more companies around the world not just legacy makers, are they not worthy competition? And with the arrival of MG4 here in the UK, isn't the start of value for money EV is upon us?

 

[Ricecooker]

Although I would be happy to pay £52k for the MY rwd back when I placed the order, it is all the events that happened and/or finding out after (mentioned on original post) that put me into unease. Not to mention, a price cut has technically happened in China, car buyers are offered incentives when purchased with insurance they were offered I think something like £900 towards it. Previous buyers not long before this are already complaining, understandably.

I normally would agree there will never be a perfect time to buy, but I can't help but to wonder if there is any good strategy to take here.

 

[Limey]

I will be trading in my M3 SR+ (as much as I love the car, it's just too hard to get in/out for my family), I just have a thought of getting something like the MG4 and ride it out till everything settles.

What are your thoughts regarding this? Or am I thinking too much?

An M3 is too small for you, so you're gonna get a smaller car. This makes no sense.

Inflation going up, cars are not getting cheaper and petrol is only "cheap" now, it'll likely go above £2/l in the winter.

 

[candida]

They’ve kept their value ridiculously the last two years. But it’s not about intrinsic value. If anyone going into buying a car for cash is worried about the value of their car plummeting, they haven’t understood how this market has traditionally (and will again) operate.

 

[gangzoom]

I'm hanging on to my s because of free charging but cost of repair out of warranty is frightening.

Is it? Our X has had a few out of warranty repairs, the costs are actually pretty reasonable. What bits are 'frightening' bare in mind these were/are near £100k new these days.

 

[gangzoom]

What are your thoughts regarding this? Or am I thinking too much?

Life is honestly too short to go into this kind of rabbit hole. What's going to happen to the £ over the next few months. What's the international ramifications when Putin starts dropping 'tactical' nucs in a country a couple hours flight from the UK.

If you can afford the Y, and want one, why woudlnt you get one? If you are so financially stretched a change in the value of Y will give you sleepless night than you probably shouldn't waste money on one.

We are living in some crazy times at present, if you have good health and family, everything else is a bonuse right now. So enjoy the thought of owning a new Y, rather than stress about something that really isn't worth stressing over.

 

[Rooster6655]

I'm currently waiting for my MY rwd, with delivery date keep pushing forward now November 06, and seeing recent happenings and arrival of MG4 (to challenge that a value EV can also be good) leaves me with an uneasy feeling. China's delivery time for the MY rwd is now 1-4 weeks, and I can't imagine what will happen as demand lowers, with Giga Shanghai alone set to produce 3000 cars per day. Tesla has huge margins and they can reduce prices in the thousands, and still make a healthy profit. Plus tough competitions, fighting for the same pie, BYD, NIO, and many startups may force Tesla to lower their price soon?

I will be trading in my M3 SR+ (as much as I love the car, it's just too hard to get in/out for my family), I just have a thought of getting something like the MG4 and ride it out till everything settles.

What are your thoughts regarding this? Or am I thinking too much?

I think worse case you would end up with the standard depreciation as seen in the past for ICE cars. I don’t think that will actually happen in the next 3 years, and for at least Tesla it should be better than other brands.

Tesla doesn’t have dealers who act as middle men that offer large discounts, so in most cases people pay the RRP. This has an affect on resale value compared to other brands.

Tesla could reduce the price if they wanted to and they use it as one way to increase and decrease sales.

The cars aren’t cheap so it’s down to individual circumstances as to whether they think it’s worth it, a 20% reduction over 3 years at £52k is £10.4K but on £25 it’s £5k so worth thinking about

 

[ElectricIAC]

Not worried. What we just went through is a bubble and values will settle where the market will bare it.

 

[pgkevet]

Is it? Our X has had a few out of warranty repairs, the costs are actually pretty reasonable. What bits are 'frightening' bare in mind these were/are near £100k new these days.

Headlights, door handles, driver binnacle display, seat, I’ve had 2 episodes of rodent damage which obviously isn't covered under warranty and it's cost £2K per time. 2 new headlights under warranty, the MCU replaced, new steering wheel, the half shaft fix wth concerns that the replaced units may well not last long either.
I have nearly £100K invested in a car that after 4 years is worth about £55K.
Take away the supercharger network and marketing of acceleration and rival EV’s are popping up with better driver ergonomics, customer relations, lower initial costs...

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

We can only speculate. Tesla have dropped some prices big time, I bought a MS P90D just after Tesla dropped the P100D by 35-40k over night, the used car I bought changed by 20k the week before I bought it, I got lucky.

I sold it though as it approached 4years old because at the time the MCU1 was a real problem with few options, headlights were failing at £1k a time, the heater matrix the same. The MCU now has options but it’s far from unheard of to get a £1k bill.

Teslas depreciation is currently low partly because they keep putting prices up. The cost to change, like for like, isn’t pretty. Even gangzoom quoting 100k cars if he ever gave a balanced view will say his MX has been the most unreliable car he’s ever owned and only cost about £65k to buy. If you could drive away in a new MX today it would be nearly double that price, albeit a car with more range and performance.

Most manufacturers are resource constrained, if those constraints lift we’ve no idea how the market will shake down, add in the closing of the gap between petrol and electricity prices, tax benefits will be looked into I imagine and the financial benefits of running an EV aren’t going to get better, I can only see them being eroded.

We’ve also got the risk that Tesla/Musk will do a Ratner and the sentiment just turns against the brand. Musk keels over with a heart attack might do that without him opening his mouth and saying something stupid.

But I also look at it from the perspective that in the last 18 months I’ve lost nothing on the cars, if anything I’m in profit, and I historically I’d have assumed it would have cost me maybe 8-9k over that time, so if I do get a shock change, I’m unlikely to be worse off than I expected. Of course that doesn’t help new buyers, but I expect things to continue like they are for a while