[UK] used value of their Tesla cars plummeting?

[WKUK]

I traded into a MY with pretty much zero cost of change. Sale of old car in silly ICE used market bubble settled all outstanding finance and paid MY deposit

Monthly MY PCP + charging is essentially the same as previous ICE PCP + fuel (albeit the PCP element is higher on MY)

Given those numbers I know what I'd rather hold as an "asset" in 4 years time, it's a no-brainer

...but anyone buying a daily use car as any kind of investment is crazy IMO

 

[Kenners]

Tesla's stock price is heavily predicated on the continued perception of Musk as a disruptive genius. In pure numbers terms it doesn't add up as it eclipses all of the other manufacturers, whose stock price is largely based on actual results.

With his antics at Twitter there is a strong argument to be made - reflected in the deteriorating share price - that perhaps his previous successes were more fortuitous (or more down to others) than his acolytes would have you believe.

There is also the very real prospect that he will have to continually liquidate his Tesla stock to prop Twitter up. The only way I can see the share price rising is if a) he hands off control wholesale to someone else - which I can't see his ego doing or b) he sells it at whatever loss he currently faces. Twitter has a massive debt burden to service, he has to somehow do what the company has been unable to do in 16 years. Based on his recent behaviour this looks less and less likely by the day.

When the conquering Generals returned to Rome they used to hire people to stand next to them on the parade and keep whispering in their ear “you are only a man”.

 

[HCassidy]

This may not be the question a lot of current owners want to be asked, but what is the consensus on what used prices will fall to?

With the fact there are lots of brand new Model 3 RWD available for delivery before the end of the year, this surely will have an impact on the used price.

As someone looking to buy a 1-2 year old used RWD, I am waiting until they are down to the £33,000 mark.

 

[Durzel]

I think £33k is unrealistic for a 1-2 year old car, unless it's in pretty poor condition.

Beyond that I'd assume the cars will follow a broadly typical depreciation curve. Earlier in the year was an anomaly that some people erroneously took to mean that Teslas were depreciation proof, when they aren't. Tesla are cranking them out as fast as they can make them.

What does work in a Tesla's favour over other EVs is that the software is continually upgraded, and there aren't a suite of options owners can pick, so there isn't a huge amount between the cars, although there is the occasional "big thing" that may or may not be important to people (e.g. heat pump, Ryzen, etc).

 

[Jason71]

I think £33k is unrealistic for a 1-2 year old car, unless it's in pretty poor condition.

Beyond that I'd assume the cars will follow a broadly typical depreciation curve. Earlier in the year was an anomaly that some people erroneously took to mean that Teslas were depreciation proof, when they aren't. Tesla are cranking them out as fast as they can make them.

What does work in a Tesla's favour over other EVs is that the software is continually upgraded, and there aren't a suite of options owners can pick, so there isn't a huge amount between the cars, although there is the occasional "big thing" that may or may not be important to people (e.g. heat pump, Ryzen, etc).

I don't know actual numbers but would like to think EV's of all types will outperform ICE for the foreseeable future.
Since the number of EV's in the market is in single digit % (less than 4% of used cars on Autotrader are BEV) and new sales are at about 17% the number of used EV's is going to be a very small % of used cars for years to come. e.g. if the number of new EV's = 17% now then in 4 years the number of 4 year old EV's will be 17% of 4 year old used cars.
Assuming EV adoption continues to increase I would assume that in 4 years the % of people buying a 4 year old car who want an EV will probably be >17% which means lower depreciation for EV's than ICE.
The fact that the difference in lease prices between EV's and ICE is less than the purchase price suggests it should be suggests the lease companies also think the same.
I sure as heck would not spend my own money on a new ICE at this point

 

[candida]

I think £33k is unrealistic for a 1-2 year old car, unless it's in pretty poor condition.

Given my recent WBAC quote for a 2020, 20k performance - it’s further up in this thread and it’s about £35k - I’m afraid this is wishful thinking. Teslas have dropped very hard in the last two months, much harder than other models and while some is the correction that was obviously coming I am convinced the market’s not seeing the benefit of EVs with electricity prices skyrocketing.
Don’t take my word for it: get a WBAC quote.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

This may not be the question a lot of current owners want to be asked, but what is the consensus on what used prices will fall to?

With the fact there are lots of brand new Model 3 RWD available for delivery before the end of the year, this surely will have an impact on the used price.

As someone looking to buy a 1-2 year old used RWD, I am waiting until they are down to the £33,000 mark.

I expect lightly used Teslas to fall to a value slightly below that of brand new ones, down around 10% total from the absolutely absurd era where used sold for higher than brand new.

On a typical lightly used Model Y that means a drop of around $6k to $8k from the peak, most of which we've already seen happen.

Adjust my crude american dollars to appropriate currency, but I think the percentages will hold up

 

[candida]

I expect lightly used Teslas to fall to a value slightly below that of brand new ones, down around 10% total from the absolutely absurd era where used sold for higher than brand new.

On a typical lightly used Model Y that means a drop of around $6k to $8k from the peak, most of which we've already seen happen.

Adjust my crude american dollars to appropriate currency, but I think the percentages will hold up

The markets not the same as our energy markets not the same. We’re buying your fracked gas to keep electricity generation running. Supercharger rates have tripled in the last six months and domestic rates pretty much the same.
I maintain the UK second hand market (which means traders) have taken fright against Teslas

 

[ACarneiro]

The markets not the same as our energy markets not the same. We’re buying your fracked gas to keep electricity generation running. Supercharger rates have tripled in the last six months and domestic rates pretty much the same.
I maintain the UK second hand market (which means traders) have taken fright against Teslas

…. and yet my mate ordered a Kia EV6 nearly a year ago and his February delivery estimate has been pushed back to July.
It still seems like EV manufacturers can’t make enough of the damned things…

 

[Durzel]

Given my recent WBAC quote for a 2020, 20k performance - it’s further up in this thread and it’s about £35k - I’m afraid this is wishful thinking. Teslas have dropped very hard in the last two months, much harder than other models and while some is the correction that was obviously coming I am convinced the market’s not seeing the benefit of EVs with electricity prices skyrocketing.
Don’t take my word for it: get a WBAC quote.

I said 1-2 year old car though, our cars are nearly 3 years old.

I just did a WBAC quote for mine which came back as £37k - which is obviously a big drop from earlier in the year, so I agree with you there. I have an email from Tesla from back in March of this year where they were offering £55,700.

 

[HCassidy]

I said 1-2 year old car though, our cars are nearly 3 years old.

I just did a WBAC quote for mine which came back as £37k - which is obviously a big drop from earlier in the year, so I agree with you there. I have an email from Tesla from back in March of this year where they were offering £55,700.

So I've been doing a few WBAC quotes after looking at the market.

M3 LR 2020 (70 Plate) Post-Refresh - 70,000 miles - £25,000
M3 SR 2021 (71 Plate) 60kWH LFP - 25,000 miles - £31,000

I am guessing WBAC take mileage into account quite heavily, these prices are definitely in my range if I can find the right seller.

If you look at a few on Telsa-Info some have been on the market for 2+ months and had price reductions of 8-10K.

 

[candida]

So I've been doing a few WBAC quotes after looking at the market.

M3 LR 2020 (70 Plate) Post-Refresh - 70,000 miles - £25,000
M3 SR 2021 (71 Plate) 60kWH LFP - 25,000 miles - £31,000

I am guessing WBAC take mileage into account quite heavily, these prices are definitely in my range if I can find the right seller.

If you look at a few on Telsa-Info some have been on the market for 2+ months and had price reductions of 8-10K.

There's a groundswell here trying to save you from that 100,000-miler!!!

 

[gangzoom]

Just had two new rear tires go our X. Bumped into the owner a local garage who use to work my old ICE cars.

Wipe away the 60k miles of dirt/road grime from the wheel arch, and the suspension/brakes on the X looks 'as new', pretty much the same as the interior.

These cars are built to take big miles with no issues.

 

[WKUK]

Check prices when you want to sell it. There are some years of pain coming and I'm not adding weekly WBAC valuations to my stress levels 😅

 

[Kenners]

I bet all the requests for Tesla quotes on WBAC are causing them to panic!

 

[Bouba]

I have to say that the message from the Chancellor of the Exchequer that the government no longer supports electric vehicles probably has affected long term values

 

[DrJFoster]

Just had two new rear tires go our X. Bumped into the owner a local garage who use to work my old ICE cars.

Wipe away the 60k miles of dirt/road grime from the wheel arch, and the suspension/brakes on the X looks 'as new', pretty much the same as the interior.

These cars are built to take big miles with no issues.

Probably because you've had most of it replaced.

Remind us again of your list of warranty repairs?

 

[Irata]

Probably because you've had most of it replaced.

Remind us again of your list of warranty repairs?

My car is one of those, warranty has kept my car like new.

It's a benefit of owning a Tesla. They can be a second hand car that's just as good as new, or is that a new car that's just as good as second hand.

 

[HCassidy]

There's a groundswell here trying to save you from that 100,000-miler!!!

I have seen sense now and decided against that car. Have fingers in many pies at the moment looking at LFP SRs or LRs with the heat pump.

Going to be checking AutoTrader hourly for new listing I think.

 

[Louis0w]

I’m trading in my 2019 M3P (FSD) with 26k miles for a new M3 LR (EAP); collection in December. Trade in offer in March, when I first stated thinking about it, was £51k. Trade in accepted early November for £40,800. That was higher than Motorway and WBAC.