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Ukrainian-Russian situation: impact to the market

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AlMc, Feb 27, 2014.

  1. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Does anyone believe the Ukranian/Russia issues will cause general negative/worry impact on market today/tomorrow that along with the GS 'upgrade' will provide problem for Feb28 weeklies?
     
  2. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    Higher oil prices due to what's going on in Venezuela and Ukraine should be a boost for Solar/EV imo. Unless it brings the whole market down.

    Nice Wedbush upgrade. I wonder if the bots will get confused today.
     
  3. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    the german DAX definitely shows weakness in the light of the Ukraine conflict, 29 of the 30 stocks of the DAX are down today.
    Its confirmed that Putin sent 8 Light "Tanks" to Crimea so it looks like they are attacking now.
    Now it depends how the NATO will respond to that, the market clearly shows fear.
     
  4. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    Are you serious? Just because they have troops on the boarder does not mean they are going to attack the country.
     
  5. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    they have troops inside the country already, so this can is already considered as an attack.

    - - - Updated - - -

    OMFG
    from the BoA report

    "In fact, Flow, NaS and lead-acid batteries seem like reasonably attractive alternatives."

    Are those guys serious? Its like making an analysis about Intel and saying that tube transistors are a viable alternative to silicon microprocessors.
     
  6. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    Their fleet is stationed there. If you consider it an attack, then we already have WW3.
    I am not saying it an develop to something but nothing has happened yet.
    Please do some research before you make statements like that.
     
  7. TD1

    TD1 Member

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    Its getting off topic here but:
    Im aware of their fleet in Crimea, what Im talking ist this
    Ukrainian Road Police stops Russian Armored Vehicles near Simferopol in Crimea - YouTube
    Russia has a huge military port in Crimea and the lease ends in 3 years, so they could lose this port if Ukraine is under a government that doesn't want to sign a new deal with Putinland.

    Also the fact that Putin doesn't recognize the new government in Kiev and is backing the old president Yanukovych makes it all just worse.

    And just to show how serious every politician is perceiving this situation:

    Angelika Merkel was talking infront of the british parliament today.
    And her words were that "Europe had a world war 100 years ago and one 75 years ago, we can not risk this again"
    this was regarding the Ukraine situation.
    I don`t want to spread FUD, but we should acknowledge that the market is nervous about that topic.
     
  8. Theshadows

    Theshadows Active Member

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    If Russia invades Ukraine: impact to the market

    With tensions heating up in the Ukraine what does everyone think this will mean for the stock market.

    Hopefully things will be peaceful but we would be foolish to assume there will be a peaceful resolution and not consider the less desirable outcomes. How do you think this will impact the global markets and how do you think other countries will react?
     
  9. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    I am afraid we will let Russia get away with it. I can't see anyone going to war over it.
     
  10. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    In the unlikely event that open warfare breaks out, I think there will be a surge of interest in renewable energy companies.

    Fewer countries will want to be tied to Russian oil and gas supplies if Russia behaves recklessly. Russia can also affect the price of these commodities worldwide, giving more reason for countries to develop water, wind, and solar energy in order to escape market swings.
     
  11. Norse

    Norse Active Member

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    +1. Even tho this is right the entire market might tank. But I bet SCTY would get more customers from doomsday prepping :)
     
  12. Cameron

    Cameron Member

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    I see the market having one or two "oh no the sky is falling!' type days, then recover by the end of the week. Tesla seems to either overreact or be relatively unfazed with these types of events. I think in this case the latter would be true, but maybe due to the recent run up it would be more prone to a larger pull back. Could provide a decent buying opportunity either way.
     
  13. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    My news feed is saying that the Russian parliament just authorized Vladimir Putin to use military force against Ukraine.

    I don't know whether this will be limited to securing Russian Navy interests on Crimea, or if the Russian government plans a wider war to restore a pro-Moscow government in Kiev.
     
  14. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    It's happened before, such "liberations" led to most of eastern europe to be enslaved by Russia for decades. Don't know how big the endeavor is this time and how many will interfere, but it's not pretty. And living next to Russia is no joke no matter what people think as right now the Russia today is closer to the Soviet Union than before. But let's hope for a strong US response, that helped with Georgia a few years ago.
     
  15. FluxCap

    FluxCap Active Member

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    Guys -- just chiming in on a couple fronts here briefly. First, I confess that I am a bit in disbelief over this developing crisis, which looks to be getting worse by the hour. I am honestly sending thoughts and prayers to the decent, mostly powerless people that inevitably get caught in the middle of the schemes of the powerful at times like this.

    For a primer on the mindset of Putin and his Russian power structure, I found this article particularly illuminating (and disturbing).

    For a comparison of the raw numbers of conventional military strength, I found this site interesting (no clue as to accuracy of these numbers).

    Even the most hawkish US politicians do not appear to be moving anywhere near suggesting we should directly intervene. To do so could, at worst, trigger WWIII. Currently plausible scenarios I have read seem to suggest that Putin knows the rest of the West does not want WWIII, and the likely outcome is that he will conquer Crimea and possibly Ukraine, annex them into Russia, kill massive amounts of people, and then stop there, while the US and EU do relatively little to impede him.

    On an economic and financial note, I think we can expect significant market turmoil at the bell on Monday morning. I am considering taking fully defensive postures until this awful crisis appears headed for resolution.
     
  16. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    The ex-SU countries are putting up a consistent front to try to make the world see that this cannot go unanswered. Lithuania is claimed to have asked for Article 4 under NATO treaty and others have also not only condemned the actions, but also requested actual action to prevent this from escalating. If one remembers the start of WW2, then the initial rhetoric was similar with demands to de-escalate and pull back, with guesses that Hitler would only help border area germans and not go further and that it's not worth escalating into a full armed conflict until it was way too late and the whole continent and later the world were pulled in.

    I just hope that the heads of states still remember that you cannot just stand by and send official notes and protests and see a portion of a country annexed and expect that the power hungry superpower will remain calmed by that. From what I've heard there are unconfirmed reports of Polish mobilizing their army and the Baltic states have called for emergency defense meetings. Ukraine is considering closing the border to Russia and has already closed their airspace. If Russia makes real threats against for example the Baltic states, then I seriously hope that NATO does better than the statement that they put out a couple of hours ago. The crap about Ukraine is that it's not a member of EU or NATO and therefore far weaker in position to resist the Russian Bear. Annexation of Crimea is not a small thing and I do hope for a strong reaction from US or others. Last time when Russia harrassed and invaded Georgia it was finally the arrival of US humanitarian aid (that was escorted with a major fleet and air force) that made Russia pull back. I doubt however if Obama is up to the task to play high stakes poker :/
     
  17. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    There is no way that this will be greeted with anything but a negative reaction by the financial markets. I second the views expressed here that I pray for the Ukrainian people who will ultimately have the most negative impact from this situation.

    From a solar investor's perspective, Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday are three big ER days for some of the solars. This situation may blunt any positive earnings news.
     
  18. warfo09

    warfo09 Member

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    Lithuania, seriously? No one in their mind would listen to Lithuanians, as everyone knows they are a bunch of rusophobic lads due to the whole Soviet Union thing.

    My view is that Russians will secure the eastern part and form something similar to Abkhazia - a disputed region with pro-Russian majority living there. But yeah, one thing I can say related to the stock price is that it will not react unless the US intervenes...and when there's war oil prices go up massively
     
  19. SwedishAdvocate

    SwedishAdvocate Active Member

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    #19 SwedishAdvocate, Mar 2, 2014
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2014
    @Flux & Mario

    Is it really that bad?

    Isn’t the majority of the people within Crimea of Russian ethnicity? And has Putin gone further than Crimea at this time? As long as the Ukraine doesn’t start to fire at the Russians, shouldn’t this eventually be possible to resolve by democratic means?
     
  20. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    If you believe anything orchestrated by Russia resembles free elections or democracy, then I've got some prime swampland for sale ;) Having lived in soviet union and live in an ex-SU country (albeit one that has recovered from its dark past best in the region) gives me a bit better insight to the thinkings of the Russian leaders. Putin is not a guy for small things. The whole nice setup of Putin+Medvedev is in effect totalitarian control of the government where they pee on the legislation that forbids consecutive presidency etc.

    And warfo09 I do resent the attitude a bit. You've probably not lived through an occupation. I have even though I'm only 32, but even I remember tanks in Tallinn and the tension that luckily was resolved through politics even though decade later when more details emerged showed how close we were to full scale bloodshed.
     

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