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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The scenario I thought we were discussing was one where Putin isn’t shooting guns, and the Ukrainians aren’t either. In this scenario Putin tries to get parts of Ukraine to vote for joining Russia through democratic elections.
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Putin does after all still pretend that Russia is a democracy, even though he and his henchmen, as I understand it, rigged their last election (haven’t read up on the previous ones).
If Putin doesn't start shooting at Ukrainians, then there are a vast array of diplomatic options available to restabilize the region, and this crisis is essentially already over. I'm speaking to the subject of the title of this thread -- the extent of Russian invasion and its effect on the market. I'm currently trading on the possibility that guns will in fact be fired because too often in history when a tyrant feels powerful, righteous and yet threatened, they tend to attack. I am however praying my defensive trades lose money and this is resolved peacefully.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Chickenlittle
Banned
I don't have any fuzzy feelings toward Putin but as if he wanted to really take Ukraine his best strategy would not be giving the west and Ukraine time to organize anything and tanks would be there already. Longer no shooting obviously better. Suspect he wants nonviolent end or with element of surprise there would already be violence
apvbguy
Banned
all of y'all are looking in the wrong direction, what is going on in VZ can have a lot more impact on the US markets than the ukraine situation
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Maybe I’ve missed something, but I haven’t heard that someone has invaded Venezuela. Nor have I heard about any more violence.
That's a plausible theory. I'm trying to logically wargame Putin's moves as well as that of Ukrainians, and wondering what happens if shots are fired (isolated incidents? Rapid escalation?). Last estimates I read showed 45,000+ Russian troop strength in the area and full Russian operational control of Crimea. 45k Russian men with rifles would appear to be fully 1/4 the strength of all Ukrainian active military personnel and more Russian troops are moving in every hour.
Edit: this is not good:
Reuters said:
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
As I understand it, the Ukrainian military is in seriously bad shape. The haven’t practiced anything but peace keeping for a really long time. So I’m guessing Russia would easily do to the Ukrainian military what the U.S. did to the Iraqis for instance…
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well as I mentioned I planned to take a protective stake in UVXY. I bought $80, $95 March calls after the open when it dropped. Half around $73 and half at the bottom. The portion is now nicely in green. With the Tesla rally (added some $400 '15 LEAPs when they were around $7 this morning) added to it my portfolio is in fact about 1% up today even though Solar is down.
I did almost the opposite and I fail today
. Bought VXX a little high and sold my LEAPS too low. Ugh.Holding VXX calls overnight, bought some deep OTM LEAPS back along with some April 280's. Strangely it seems TSLA is a safety stock today...we may have graduated to a new level...
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Moderator's Note:
A diversion about the independence of various press sources has been moved to Politics - Quarantine Thread . Your attempts to stay on topic are greatly appreciated.
A diversion about the independence of various press sources has been moved to Politics - Quarantine Thread . Your attempts to stay on topic are greatly appreciated.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
General market down slightly, but TSLA seems to be unaffected by the news.
TSLA a "safe haven" in a world where major oil producers are sometimes hostile?
TSLA a "safe haven" in a world where major oil producers are sometimes hostile?
US suspends trade talks, military engagements with Russia over Ukraine
OK, I realize most of us here are not geo-political analysts, but let's chat about the short- and long-term implications of Putin's actions...
Energy to Eastern Europe?
Implications to the supply and demand for natural gas?
NATO action? (intentionally omitted, anything U.S. political)
None of the above?
Value of electrical infrastructure and transport? (Meaning TSLA, solar, and others not yet identified)
OK, I realize most of us here are not geo-political analysts, but let's chat about the short- and long-term implications of Putin's actions...
Energy to Eastern Europe?
Implications to the supply and demand for natural gas?
NATO action? (intentionally omitted, anything U.S. political)
None of the above?
Value of electrical infrastructure and transport? (Meaning TSLA, solar, and others not yet identified)
chickensevil
Active Member
They are perfectly fine if you use them correctly. But you have to remember with a VERY volatile stock like TSLA you would HAVE to put in a wide stop loss. Like on the order of 10% in order to work with an around the weekly fluctuations of the stock. The purpose of it would be to avoid another Q3 situation from hurting so bad. So you would have dumped out at say, 170-165, waited for it to bottom out, and then bought back in. But smart money would have seen that the first fire was going to hurt the stock and either shorted, sold, or just re-inforced your position with more longs as the stock went down. The stop loss is there for people who can't watch the stock every day. Chances are, if you are posting here, you are likely watching the stock every day... so you would be better at timing the swings manually.
The confilicts are bad for the whole world economy in general.
But Tesla can profit form the higher Oil prices that will occure if the NATO will impose trade sanctions on Russia.
At the same time a new debate about the energy and Oil dependency to Russia, especially in EUs case will start new conversations and efforts to get of Oil, therefore it is more likely that we see much better subsidies in Europe for EVs as a result of the Russia Conflict.
Im not certain about the role of China in this conflict, China seems to stand on Russians side in this conflict. I would like to get an idea of how far China will take this partnership.
Worstcase would be if the conflict escalades and China and Russia form an Trading Union that excludes the West, but by that time we would be in the middle of WW3.
What worries me is that Putin seems to be in the "I dont give a ****" mode, and has the powers of a Dictator in Russia.
One would think they would be perfectly fine. But when I had a 10%+ stop loss on AAPL at ~260, and it decided to drop to ~230 over the course of 5 minutes back in the flash crash, my AAPL shares got sold at 203 and it recovered to 260 in a matter of minutes. And of course, since AAPL wasn't an "affected stock" (that only applied to stocks which lost 40% of their value, or some nonsense like that), the trades didn't get cancelled, as they did for many other stocks.
Still pretty pissed about that.
As for short-term movements: Frankfurt opened and we're up to $257. Only 3k shares traded of course, but this is making the 260 calls I wrote yesterday look pretty bad. Pennies in front of a steamroller indeed. Does anyone know if most brokerages provide a way to designate which shares to get called away, if it comes down to that?
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Early reports of Putin commanding forces to withdraw. Rumors of a press conference soon to happen. We'll see, but this may have been one of the shortest conflicts if this indeed works out now. Though I'm not too optimistic. The market futures do point towards green though.
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