Ultra-Economy EV

[PaulRocket]

There is a ton of cars out there with this type of range and size. "The body should look like a VW Golf" - why wold anyone buy this car instead of the e-Golf?

An new BEV with less then 200 miles EPA range today is in my opinion not worth making, no matter in what size or form. Yes, there is a marked for short-range BEV's, but this marked is well supplied already.

Why? Well, because the e-Golf starts $30,000... Of course in the long term no BEV should have less then 200 miles of range, but IMO if the car costs $18,000, then under 200 miles is alright. You can't expect everyone to buy a car for $35,000. You shouldn't make this assumptions.

 

[PaulRocket]

Not really. The nice thing about software is that once it has been developed for use by one model, adapting it to another costs almost nothing. So, having a "simpler" car will save nothing in terms of software.

Fine, i get that. Still I would think it saves time and money to just use iPads.

 

[Model 3]

Why? Well, because the e-Golf starts $30,000... Of course in the long term no BEV should have less then 200 miles of range, but IMO if the car costs $18,000, then under 200 miles is alright.

Ok, you forgot to mention that a GigaFactory was a part of your plan all along Without something like that you are not able to produce it at lower cost then VW. And yes, there is a room for very low cost short range BEV's. Here this marked is covered by "the triplets": i-Miev, iOn and C-Zero.

 

[PaulRocket]

Ok, you forgot to mention that a GigaFactory was a part of your plan all along Without something like that you are not able to produce it at lower cost then VW. And yes, there is a room for very low cost short range BEV's. Here this marked is covered by "the triplets": i-Miev, iOn and C-Zero.
View attachment 168933

I didn't forget to mention anything, I was just sharing a thought, a concept. Of course this car is possible. The key is 18650. VW uses expensive pouch cells. This car would use low cost 18650. So assuming a 2018 launch date I think something like $220 per kW/h or about $6,600 for the entire pack is very doable. You could offer a car for $18,000.

Another option would be buying cells from Tesla.



Regarding the triplet, have you seen those cars? The styling, the interior, the space, the infotainment etc? Ridiculous...

 

[qqstormus2]

Maybe at some point they'll look at selling the Model 3 platform itself, and other companies can build whatever they want on top of it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think an ultra-economy "skateboard" platform is the logical move into places like India where government sources are talking 100% EV by 2030.

Wouldn't be hard to build out drive train and battery gigafactories in India starting a couple years from now. Basically just outsource the business model and an ultra-cheap ultra-simple platform design.

 

[Red Sage]

I also think there's a huge opportunity to build a very compelling low cost electric car. The body should look like a VW Golf, a nice simple and clean design.The cost should be around $18,000. Base battery size should be 30 kW/h for around 120 miles of range. 0-60 in 6 seconds and top speed of 100mph. That would really get a lot of people interested IMO. Also to save money the only interior gimmicks would be an AC as well as an iPad with LTE for navigation etc. That saves the company a lot of R&D money on a OS.

Anybody want to join and help me start this car company

30 kWh is not enough to get you to 120 miles of range. Unless you are speaking of a two-seater that weighs well under 2,700 lbs. Maybe.

Why? Well, because the e-Golf starts $30,000... Of course in the long term no BEV should have less then 200 miles of range, but IMO if the car costs $18,000, then under 200 miles is alright. You can't expect everyone to buy a car for $35,000. You shouldn't make this assumptions.

Many traditional automobile manufacturers have already abandoned the sub-$15,000 market. It is very likely that within a few years, the rest will abandon the sub-$20,000 market. Quite a few 'cheap' cars are greatly outsold by desirable cars that cost a lot more.

I didn't forget to mention anything, I was just sharing a thought, a concept. Of course this car is possible. The key is 18650. VW uses expensive pouch cells. This car would use low cost 18650. So assuming a 2018 launch date I think something like $220 per kW/h or about $6,600 for the entire pack is very doable. You could offer a car for $18,000.

Another option would be buying cells from Tesla.

Regarding the triplet, have you seen those cars? The styling, the interior, the space, the infotainment etc? Ridiculous...

JB Straubel said about two years ago that Tesla Motors' internal cost for a battery pack was on the order of 1/4 the whole car. So, a battery pack at $6,600 would be either: 1) a $26,400 build cost; or 2) a $26,400 selling price, dependent upon your point of view. Either way, you would definitely be losing money at an $18,000 MSRP. If you want to reach that amount as a selling point, even your tiny 30 kWh battery pack would have to come down a lot more in cost. That would make it $4,500 or less.

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If someone must buy an inexpensive new car, they probably don't live very close to work. The longer their commute, the greater the roundtrip, the more likely they will need more range. Those who experience 'range anxiety' typically would prefer that they can take care of the majority of their driving by using only 70% of the car's maximum stated range.

Most people drive less than 40 miles per day. Some people rarely drive less than 80 miles per day. A very few people must drive in excess of 200 miles per day.

Looking at the least of these, 40 miles per day, at five days per week, comes to 200 miles. I believe that is why the minimum range for Tesla Motors vehicles will be 200 miles from now on. It allows someone who doesn't have a regular parking space to make it through a work week without daily charging. They can plug in at a public charger on Friday evening, and again on Sunday evening, then start anew for the next week.

 

[voyager]

I agree. There's still a long and very interesting / promising way to go.... before taking off to space.

 

[PaulRocket]

30 kWh is not enough to get you to 120 miles of range. Unless you are speaking of a two-seater that weighs well under 2,700 lbs. Maybe.


Many traditional automobile manufacturers have already abandoned the sub-$15,000 market. It is very likely that within a few years, the rest will abandon the sub-$20,000 market. Quite a few 'cheap' cars are greatly outsold by desirable cars that cost a lot more.


JB Straubel said about two years ago that Tesla Motors' internal cost for a battery pack was on the order of 1/4 the whole car. So, a battery pack at $6,600 would be either: 1) a $26,400 build cost; or 2) a $26,400 selling price, dependent upon your point of view. Either way, you would definitely be losing money at an $18,000 MSRP. If you want to reach that amount as a selling point, even your tiny 30 kWh battery pack would have to come down a lot more in cost. That would make it $4,500 or less.

--------

If someone must buy an inexpensive new car, they probably don't live very close to work. The longer their commute, the greater the roundtrip, the more likely they will need more range. Those who experience 'range anxiety' typically would prefer that they can take care of the majority of their driving by using only 70% of the car's maximum stated range.

Most people drive less than 40 miles per day. Some people rarely drive less than 80 miles per day. A very few people must drive in excess of 200 miles per day.

Looking at the least of these, 40 miles per day, at five days per week, comes to 200 miles. I believe that is why the minimum range for Tesla Motors vehicles will be 200 miles from now on. It allows someone who doesn't have a regular parking space to make it through a work week without daily charging. They can plug in at a public charger on Friday evening, and again on Sunday evening, then start anew for the next week.

Looking at my statements and having thought about it a lot in the last few weeks I agree with you on some points.

Regarding 120 miles with 30 kWh, I was talking european standards, so I guess with US standards it would be 100 miles.

Regarding battery cost, I think this car would be very doable by purchasing the battery pack from Tesla. Teslas battery cost right now is around 220$ per kWh. This is an educated guess, it was estimated at around 250$ a few years ago and battery costs are dropping quickly. By building the cells themselves, they eliminate the maybe 5% profit that Panasonic prices in, which makes the current battery cost 209$ per kWh. GF will cut this by 30%, Elon said they're aiming for more but lets say 30%. The battery cost would drop to around 145$ per kWh. Now you're purchasing the pack from Tesla and add a 15% profit margin, you get to around 165$ per kWh. Your whole pack costs $4,950. Now you can achieve the under $20,000 price target, let's say $19,500. Even if the cost was 190$ per kWh, your pack would cost $5,700 and your car $22,800. Not too far off. Don't forget after incentives the price could be as low as $12,500 or $15,300.
At this price I think its a non brainer. Besides the battery, I think by really simplifying the interior you can really lower costs.
I remain confident but can't wait for the next round of arguments

 

[Model 3]

Regarding battery cost, I think this car would be very doable by purchasing the battery pack from Tesla. Teslas battery cost right now is around 220$ per kWh. This is an educated guess, it was estimated at around 250$ a few years ago and battery costs are dropping quickly. By building the cells themselves, they eliminate the maybe 5% profit that Panasonic prices in, which makes the current battery cost 209$ per kWh. GF will cut this by 30%, Elon said they're aiming for more but lets say 30%. The battery cost would drop to around 145$ per kWh. Now you're purchasing the pack from Tesla and add a 15% profit margin, you get to around 165$ per kWh. Your whole pack costs $4,950.

Just to get the records on battery prices right:
1. You have to keep track of when it is talked about battery-cell prices and battery-pack prices. Battery-pack price is (battery-cell price pr. kWh * kWh in the pack) + the pack it self + electronic + (price to add one cell to the pack * number of cells). Roughly speaking.
2. There is a lot of estimates on what some prices is in a secret contract. Some are better estimates then others. One of the best educated guesses I have read is that the cell price into Tesla was $180/kWh a few years ago. One of the best guesstimates I have seen is about $220-250/kWh pack price at the same time as the cell price was about $180/kWh. If this is for a 60kWh or a 85kWh pack (witch was the alternatives at that time) is unknown.
3. We do not know what exactly is meant to be reduced by (at least) 30%. from what. Is it cell price? Pack price? From what it was back then? Or what it would be without the GF in 2017? Or in 2020?
4. Tesla will not be building the cells themselves. It will still be produced of Panasonic - in the Tesla owned GF. Panasonic will still have a profit on the production, but it will - in all probability - be reduced.

I was thinking about doing a "worth case scenario" math on this based on the factors above, but thinking about it : it's needless. The worth case scenario would be that Tesla refuses to sell you the packs at all, because they need every single cell that the can put their hand on to produce the Model 3. And later Model Y. And if they get a cell more then the cars need - it is needed for the PowerPacks and PowerWalls. And this is the most likely scenario for many years to come. And you can just forget any prices like this from anyone else....

 

[PaulRocket]

Just to get the records on battery prices right:
1. You have to keep track of when it is talked about battery-cell prices and battery-pack prices. Battery-pack price is (battery-cell price pr. kWh * kWh in the pack) + the pack it self + electronic + (price to add one cell to the pack * number of cells). Roughly speaking.
2. There is a lot of estimates on what some prices is in a secret contract. Some are better estimates then others. One of the best educated guesses I have read is that the cell price into Tesla was $180/kWh a few years ago. One of the best guesstimates I have seen is about $220-250/kWh pack price at the same time as the cell price was about $180/kWh. If this is for a 60kWh or a 85kWh pack (witch was the alternatives at that time) is unknown.
3. We do not know what exactly is meant to be reduced by (at least) 30%. from what. Is it cell price? Pack price? From what it was back then? Or what it would be without the GF in 2017? Or in 2020?
4. Tesla will not be building the cells themselves. It will still be produced of Panasonic - in the Tesla owned GF. Panasonic will still have a profit on the production, but it will - in all probability - be reduced.

I was thinking about doing a "worth case scenario" math on this based on the factors above, but thinking about it : it's needless. The worth case scenario would be that Tesla refuses to sell you the packs at all, because they need every single cell that the can put their hand on to produce the Model 3. And later Model Y. And if they get a cell more then the cars need - it is needed for the PowerPacks and PowerWalls. And this is the most likely scenario for many years to come. And you can just forget any prices like this from anyone else....

I know the difference between cell and pack price. The point is, that the price will go under 200$ per kWh even on the pack level.
If Tesla refuses to sell you the battery pack, you need to build your own and purchase the cells from Panasonic.

 

[JRP3]

I doubt Panasonic will sell you the same cells that Tesla is using, they seem to be slightly different than anything available from Panasonic. Even if you could get them pricing would probably be terrible.

 

[PaulRocket]

I doubt Panasonic will sell you the same cells that Tesla is using, they seem to be slightly different than anything available from Panasonic. Even if you could get them pricing would probably be terrible.

How come? Tesla had to negotiate with Panasonic in 2010/2011 as well and they didn't have the reputation they have today. Sure Toyota and Daimler bought a stake...

 

[Model 3]

How come? Tesla had to negotiate with Panasonic in 2010/2011 as well and they didn't have the reputation they have today. Sure Toyota and Daimler bought a stake...

The cells that Tesla gets from Panasonic is custom made to Tesla's specification. Probably it is a part of the contract "Do not sell this cell to any other customers!".

Yes, Toyota and Daimler bought battery-packs produced by Tesla with cells Tesla bought from Panasonic. This deals was probably made before Tesla/Tesla investor's was sure it could survive/expand by just producing Model S. This deals was nice to point to as a sure extra income, and a possible future if car sale should fail, by that time.

 

[Snerruc]

The cells that Tesla gets from Panasonic is custom made to Tesla's specification. Probably it is a part of the contract "Do not sell this cell to any other customers!".

Yes, Toyota and Daimler bought battery-packs produced by Tesla with cells Tesla bought from Panasonic. This deals was probably made before Tesla/Tesla investor's was sure it could survive/expand by just producing Model S. This deals was nice to point to as a sure extra income, and a possible future if car sale should fail, by that time.

If you check the epa numbers for the Leaf, you get 30 KWh battery with 107 mi range Tesla 90 d 90 KWh battery 294 mi range . Not a significant difference as you are getting 3X the performance/ car.
Also Leaf battery replacement $ 5,500.00according to the Internet . Battery cost is probably a higher percent of the cost of a Leaf than a higher priced car. If you make a low cost car that passes all safety regs, it will be hard to make a profit. Check registrations, few people buy cars under $20,000.00.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I say let the market decide.

Tesla will make the Model 3, with a lowest price option at 35k. The consumer will look at the model 3 and the competition at that time. Other EV prices will rise and fall accordingly. If an EV, like the Bolt cannot compete against the 3 on it's merits it will not sell. Thus the price will drop (since the price is the "same").

The main issue will be, will there be greater competition out there once the model 3 comes out? I am of the opinion that many of the legacy automakers will wimp out. They have too much invested in ICE vehicles, and likely will not be able to convert to EVs. Look at BMW, sounds like their I-series developers are jumping ship, which implies leadership does not prize those developers and EVs (which is a shame).

Unfortunately what may happen is that the other EVs made by legacy automakers will get "dumped" onto the market in the short term after model 3 comes out. In the short term this may provide the price point that this thread is looking for. However, some may be wound down and discontinued, being unprofitable (as per Fiat CEO). Ultimately decreasing EV availability and options for lower price points.

If this happens, hopefully other EV makers will come into the market (FF?) and be able to fill the sub 30k market niche. Alternatively, this may push more ICE vehicles of previous "premium" caliber into a lower price point. Which can lead to an interesting dichotomy of social class distinctions based on ICE vs. EV ownership (which I believe we kind of are already seeing)...but that's another thread and discussion.

I do not believe it is in Tesla's interest to pursue the lower price market at this time. But instead to become the standard from which future EVs will be judged and priced accordingly.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well if we take Elon's comment literally and the Gen 4 will be "for everyone", then it needs to be at least on par with the Civic for affordability. I would call that "ultra-economy".

 

[GoTslaGo]

TheTalkingMule, after watching EMs talk in Norway, you are right. Sub 30k gen 4, civic level will be goal. But I suspect there will also be a rentable autonomous component like uber/lyft which will provide even greater accessibility. Then again, there is a strong push into EVs by Chinese automakers who may pursue the bottom up strategy (?byd, etc...). Interesting to see how this works out.

 

[James Anders]

In the big scheme of things - considering that it might take 20 more years to fully make the transition to all electric - it makes sense to focus on the largest and least efficient vehicles first. This is where you're going to see the most bang for the buck.

Honda Civics and other small cars already get fairly good mileage and are reasonably efficient.

Working the way down the food chain from larger vehicles to smaller makes sense. You're also going to need crazy battery capacity before tackling the Honda Civic market. Several more Gigafactories.

They should address pickups, large SUVs like Suburbans before any small econoboxes.

 

[SageBrush]

Most major manufacturers have completely abandoned the sub-$15,000 price point for new cars, and it is likely that by 2020 even more would have abandoned the sub-$20,000 market as well. You want a cheap car, buy a used one.

In 2014 I bought a new Honda Fit for $15,500.

Unlike the mentioned Hyundai POS, the Fit is an excellent car.