under 10,000 per year

[tonybelding]

As reported here → Tesla Roadster Production Likely Under 10,000: Will Beat All Hypercars

To put that in perspective, Tesla produced somewhere around 2,500 first-generation Roadsters, total. (If I recall right, about 1,500 were sold in the USA.)

Given that the new Roadster is a far more advanced car with incredible specifications, and Tesla is a much more established and known entity now, 10,000 per year seems just about on point to me.

Over on Reddit this did spark a bit of conversation about who the likely buyers will be. My theory is that interest from the usual supercar crowd will be tepid. To them it's something out of left field. I expect it to draw in a lot of people from outside those circles, from people who never would have bought a Ferrari or a Lambo.

 

[Haxster]

If you order one, just make sure that you select the Full Self-Driving option so that you don't have to bother actually driving it.

Actually, for a car like this, it's hard to make a case for even offering this feature. I'm sure that there are some situations:
1. Yes officer, I'm drunk. But I'm not actually driving
2. A long drive to the next coffee stop... and I keep dozing off.
3. Yes officer, I'm only 12, but my dad said that I could use the car.

 

[Brando]

Consider how many +$200,000 vehicles are offered world wide.
quick search reveals 35 models offered in 2019 $200,000 to $300,000:
New Cars from $200k to $300k to Buy in 2019

Obviously rich people buy whatever they like. Looks and performance we mere mortals might think we understand. Other reasons? Only the buyer could tell us.

Production may well, again, be the limit for Tesla. Batteries or the Bodies? Or simply number of deposits as Tesla builds mostly to order and few for demo/test drives/display. <10,000/year limit claimed by Elon seems reasonable. Elon would have a better idea than I would.

example:
Ferrari limits to ~7,000 and sometimes considers going to 10,000.

 

[Sporty]

They need to sell enough of those ICE hotrods so that I can at least beat one of them on takeoff! I’m not a track person, but I just might have to go assuming I can find someone willing to come in second…

My son was driving my P3 and a Porsche (Panamera) pulled up to cut us off at the light. I so wanted to tell my son to punch it.. but I held back.. and the Porsche cut us off. Which is fine… drivers of nice cars aren’t normally the problem on the road.

Back to the topic.. I’d probably not get the 200K version if there was a 100K version. I was looking at the Mission-E when it was announced. Cheaper than the roadster, looked good, lots of Tesla’s out here … But now that it’s closer I can’t do it. IMO, the P3 beats it. So I'm (still !) waiting for the 2020 roadster to come out. (I got the P3 cause I'm suspecting the wait is going to be a while)

 

[Retaw]

If you order one, just make sure that you select the Full Self-Driving option so that you don't have to bother actually driving it.

Actually, for a car like this, it's hard to make a case for even offering this feature. I'm sure that there are some situations:
1. Yes officer, I'm drunk. But I'm not actually driving
2. A long drive to the next coffee stop... and I keep dozing off.
3. Yes officer, I'm only 12, but my dad said that I could use the car.

Why not? AP makes perfect sense. On highway with heavy traffic, I don't want to drive in any car. The fun can begin after the traffic.

 

[Haxster]

Why not? AP makes perfect sense. On highway with heavy traffic, I don't want to drive in any car. The fun can begin after the traffic.

Agree about AP.
FSD?...not so much.

 

[repoanything]

FSD sure would be nice for those days you have to catch a plane and just want your Roadster to go home and pick you up when you get back.

 

[tstafford]

Over on Reddit this did spark a bit of conversation about who the likely buyers will be. My theory is that interest from the usual supercar crowd will be tepid. To them it's something out of left field. I expect it to draw in a lot of people from outside those circles, from people who never would have bought a Ferrari or a Lambo.

Haven’t see the Reddit, but I agree with your comments. I talk to guys at the track all the time (Porsche, Lamborghini, Ferrari guys) and basically none of them show interest in Tesla or the Roadster. The read I get is they think the whole thing is nonsense. The best I ever get about Tesla from that crowd is “I think I understand, but it’s not for me.”

I’m not sure who the customer base will be for the Roadster. Guessing tech nerds who love cars. I’m kind of that but also a track guy (Radical). Seems like a pretty niche audience if they can’t eat away at the Ferrari/Lambo buyers.

 

[felixtb]

...,,..,
I’m not sure who the customer base will be for the Roadster. Guessing tech nerds who love cars. I’m kind of that but also a track guy (Radical). Seems like a pretty niche audience if they can’t eat away at the Ferrari/Lambo buyers.

Love the Radical. Also a niche market.

I think there is a large enough crowd that will be intrigued and wanting to go the Roadster way. Probably not the track crowed straightaway or at lest until it’s proven or disproven itself on and off the track. Seems the Model 3 is proving itself quite well on the track and the Taycan protos seem to be devouring the Nordschleife with delight so the verdict is out on when the track crowd will move towards electrification as well.... The VW ID R just set a new EV lap record of 6.05 which is pretty damed fast not as quick as the 919 but certainly very fast indeed.......

 

[tonybelding]

Haven’t see the Reddit, but I agree with your comments. I talk to guys at the track all the time (Porsche, Lamborghini, Ferrari guys) and basically none of them show interest in Tesla or the Roadster. The read I get is they think the whole thing is nonsense. The best I ever get about Tesla from that crowd is “I think I understand, but it’s not for me.”

Yes, that's very similar to some observations that come up in the Reddit thread.

I've always found that most "car guys" (with a few exceptions, of course) are massively indifferent towards my 2010 Roadster. They don't dislike, but it seems like it can't even get onto their mental radar. Yet, when I park in town or at a charging station, I have ordinary passerby coming up to question me about it, take a photo of it, or even just to tell me how cool it is. The general public seem more engaged than the gearheads.

It's a relative measure, though. Even among the "general public" there's a large majority of people who would walk right past the Batmobile without noticing it. The Oscar Mayer Weinermobile they might notice, if they happen to not be looking at their phone at that moment.

 

[inconel]

I would love to have FSD act as an instructor for me on the track. Drive and show me the ideal path once then monitor how much I deviate from it when it's my turn to drive.

 

[Brando]

Yes, that's very similar to some observations that come up in the Reddit thread.

I've always found that most "car guys" (with a few exceptions, of course) are massively indifferent towards my 2010 Roadster. They don't dislike, but it seems like it can't even get onto their mental radar. Yet, when I park in town or at a charging station, I have ordinary passerby coming up to question me about it, take a photo of it, or even just to tell me how cool it is. The general public seem more engaged than the gearheads.

It's a relative measure, though. Even among the "general public" there's a large majority of people who would walk right past the Batmobile without noticing it. The Oscar Mayer Weinermobile they might notice, if they happen to not be looking at their phone at that moment.

Gear heads just think it is a Lotus - or just another tiny sports car.

 

[FlatSix911]

Haven’t see the Reddit, but I agree with your comments. I talk to guys at the track all the time (Porsche, Lamborghini, Ferrari guys) and basically, none of them show interest in Tesla or the Roadster. The read I get is they think the whole thing is nonsense. The best I ever get about Tesla from that crowd is “I think I understand, but it’s not for me.”

I’m not sure who the customer base will be for the Roadster. Guessing tech nerds who love cars. I’m kind of that but also a track guy (Radical). Seems like a pretty niche audience if they can’t eat away at the Ferrari/Lambo buyers.

As a long term PCA member, I see a lot of interest at the track regarding the new Roadster.

To quote Musk... “We’re going to do things with the new Roadster that are kind of unfair to other cars."

He adds that the Roadster is "crushingly good relative to the next best gasoline sports car.”

 

[Brando]

Endurance Racing? Hybrids are current leaders, right?
At Le Mans do they race diesel vs petrol vs hybrids ? in the same race?
Racing way to regulated now days - efforts to keep all the cars very similar, right? Got so boring I stopped watching.
So crowded that passing became rare.

 

[Uncle Paul]

I had similar issue when I would take my 96 Viper to a track day. Vett, Porsche and Mustang drivers looked at it with distain. They knew it was an ill handling, funny sounding and little provenance car on the track.

At the end of the day, when I was able to pass many of them, the car ran flawlessly, and required little maintenance on the track it began to gain some respect, and some of those other Marques would amble over to my pits to learn more about the Viper. I was not that great a driver in the beginning, but as I learned more about the capabilities of the Viper I got better and more able to put down some impressive times.

Will be the same with EVs. In the beginning they will be smug and aloof. As you begin to lay down some good lap times they will begin to show interest.

It will take some time to earn the respect of the racing community....but respect will come.

 

[HankMoody]

I hope it will be 10k total. And not per year.

 

[Quibbs]

I think the roadster is a great looking vehicle and if Tesla achieves it's stated specs, the car will sell.
We have friends who never really looked into Tesla as they felt it was a niche market or fad. Some said they didn't feel Tesla vehicles could measured up to the cars they currently dive, in terms of luxury. Many are currently driving S class and the like. A few did not want to be bothered with the inconvenience of finding a charging station.
When I started discussing the Roadster with its performance specs and range it generated strong interest among our crowd. These are conservative, big money types who are older (55+). Beautiful and sleek, with crazy speed, room inside and a 620 mile range (imho, - 20-30% of whatever is stated for range for real world driving). Once you start getting up past 450 miles of true* range, it opens up another type of possible client.
Again, if the roadster comes out as shown, within a year of release, you'll see them on all the youtube channels and it could* become the type of car young people have on their screen savers, phones and walls as the dream car.

 

[CarlK]

I hope it will be 10k total. And not per year.

I was also wondering if Elon meant per year or total. To put it in perspective no car company sells 10,000 >$200K cars total a year. That includes Lambo, Ferrari, Porsche and whoever, I don't mind if Tesla sells that many a year though. Tesla should make it a better car for the money not just a more exclusive car like others are doing.

 

[tstafford]

I listened to the podcast - I think Elon's comment was very off the cuff and I for one wouldn't read too much in to it. Would blow me away if Tesla made 10K Roadsters in the first 12 months of production. Even by today's standards $200K is a very high entry point for a car and the market will be limited for the Roadster for that and other obvious reasons.

 

[Brando]

BMW i8 production in ~ 50 markets.
BMW i8 - Wikipedia
I think the Roadster can easily do 10,000
(Ferrari almost does 10,000 and Roadster is just better, right?)
Carbon Fiber body probably the limiting function.