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Understanding Tesla VIN Assignment Logic

My order for MYLR red/black, 5 seats, standard wheels, no towing hitch, no FSD, was placed around June 1, 2022. Although my EDD had bounced around a bit, it has stabilized for the last couple of months between 11/26 to 12/31. My nervousness is this. Now just 3 weeks before 11/26, it seems Tesla ought to have a closer EDD than a full month. Reading other posts on other forums it seems some customers who placed their order 2 months BEFORE mine are getting the same EDD range that I have. Some other customers placed their order a month AFTER mine and already have their VIN assigned. December is the end of the quarter, and the end of the year, and it has 3 holidays if you count Thanksgiving. Can anybody explain the odd production schedule? Santa's Elves coming to help?

My home is just about an 8 hour truck trip from Fremont, so I'm assuming that is where my car will most likely be built. Austin is apparently shipping their cars by rail so most likely they would be going to destinations east of the Rockies.
 

Gray Man

∇x E = -∂B(t)/∂t
Oct 27, 2022
118
342
Augusta, GA
I ordered in April, similar build to yours, except Blue, with FSD. Just got my VIN last Friday. I had a similar EDD to yours (just 2 weeks earlier, though) up until I got the VIN on 11/3.

With that EDD, I'd expect a VIN maybe 1-1.5 weeks out from now. You'll get there soon!
 
Thanks for your input, Gray Man. I stopped at my Las Vegas delivery location 11/7/22 and spoke to the agent at the desk. My main question to him was how reliable is my 11/26 to 12/31 EDD? He was fairly confidant that I would get my car sometime in December, but had no better insight into Tesla's production schedule than the general public has. Well, at least he didn't express any negative vibes, but I left not knowing much more than I did when I arrived. While there I also noted that the parking lot was quite empty compared to how it was a couple of weeks ago (late October).

He did note that Tesla builds cars in batches, so they wait until they have enough orders with a similar set of features before taking the time to change over their setup. He also noted that they are receiving cars from both Fremont and Austin here in Vegas. Previously I had assumed that the country was divided down the middle by the Rocky Mountains for purposes of Tesla manufacturing. I do know that Austin ships out their production by rail from nearby Hutto Texas. I think Fremont ships strictly by truck.
 

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