Unhappy with FSD sales and pricing

[S4WRXTTCS]

you massively overestimate how big the market is you are going on about.

This is why companies do market research.

Even if I'm totally, and completely convinced that a market exist for some contraption it's still important to prove it before investing a lot of time and effort into it.

As to $100K cars.

For myself I dropped $100K for 2015 Model S because I wanted to despite it being much higher than I usually spent. On TMC I came across a lot of other people who also did. Where they were coming from even cheaper vehicles like a Prius.

I wouldn't hesitate in doing the same thing again if there was something especially interesting about the vehicle.

 

[BeeGood]

you massively overestimate how big the market is you are going on about.

Key word here....”is”.

As in, you’re looking at the market for $100K cars that you can buy today.

That is not going to be the same market for cars that you might be able to buy if true, Level 5 autonomous driving at $100K becomes a reality.

The value proposition is radically different. As @mhan00 pointed out, the quality of life improvements are huge. It changes where you might be able to go for work, when you can commute, what you can do with that commute time, on and on. And as I said, the car has the potential to be an income earning asset.

Just to put the price in perspective, the median US home price is around $280K. But people at the median often stretch to get into houses that cost more. Why? More space, better neighborhood, closer to work, closer to good schools for kids. And nobody scoffs at people who make those decisions.

A level-5-capable car that can drive me to the office with zero input from me, then leave the parking lot and go earn money for me would be just like that.

 

[Microterf]

y u stop there? I clearly said and enough wealth to spend 100k on a car

pay attention. Hell, you even quoted the post but you still couldn’t make it out. No wonder you think people will pay 40K for fsd. LOL....


Edit: I figured it out. “Very niche” means small, big funny words.... I’m assuming you know what and means!?!

I did quote that part of it. The part I put under that was when you said blind people with a history of DUIs. If someone is blind and they cant see, that currently puts them at a bigger disadvantage than someone drunk, I would hope you could agree with that. That being said, forget having 100k, I bet the blind people with a history of DUIs is zero or near zero. You combined separate use cases together to make a ridiculous argument.

Blind people with 40k who value independence they haven't had before. THAT is a target demographic, and it might not be a huge group, but there WILL be a market for that.

 

[MikeHolliday]

I have a sister who has been paralyzed from the waist down since she was 18 months of in 1952 from Polio. If Tesla could release a Van that she could drive her Scooter into to drive, 100k would not be an issue...

 

[qdeathstar]

I did quote that part of it. The part I put under that was when you said blind people with a history of DUIs. If someone is blind and they cant see, that currently puts them at a bigger disadvantage than someone drunk, I would hope you could agree with that. That being said, forget having 100k, I bet the blind people with a history of DUIs is zero or near zero. You combined separate use cases together to make a ridiculous argument.

Blind people with 40k who value independence they haven't had before. THAT is a target demographic, and it might not be a huge group, but there WILL be a market for that.

Where are you getting 40k from? A Tesla is at least 40k, and your suggesting they would pay another 40k for fsd. Thats 80k. At least.

who making the dumber argument??!

 

[boonedocks]

Where are you getting 40k from? A Tesla is at least 40k, and your suggesting they would pay another 40k for fsd. Thats 80k. At least.

who making the dumber argument??!

And wait for it......when the $25k Tesla arrives “soon” imagine paying 2X the $ for a feature vs the car itself. I don’t believe Tesla will ever be able to charge that kind of fee for FSD...EVER.... I personally think $10k is not going to be able to hold up over the long haul...as a software only fee.

If the subscription price is in the “reasonable” arena...$199 - $250 monthly, then $10k+ upfront will not be taken by many people at all. Using my family as an example, we have pre-paid for FSD 3 times now and the fee is not really the concern, it is the value per $ that is. ie - meaning we would not have pre-paid for FSD ever if the subscription model had been available.

100% did NOT pre-pay for it on our Refresh S this time around and will be happy paying the monthly subscription fee ONCE some semblance of FSD actually is released.

 

[dinonugget]

There is a big difference between what FSD is and what it can be.

Currently, FSD is a gimmick, toy-for-the-rich, investment into Elon's dream, total scam, or whatever term you choose to apply for something that costs a load of cash, but currently is delivering very little (except for Autopilot lane change). Especially screwed are the owners who bought into FSD years ago, don't even qualify for the beta (for whatever reason that is not transparent), and have limited life left in their Teslas.

However, if FSD is ever made reliable enough for Tesla to actually have a wide-rollout and the confidence for accidents to be rare enough to make good business sense to stand behind it, then $10k is a bargain. Even today, Autopilot in stop-and-go traffic provides a layer of safety, especially for the day-to-day commutes for the weary. Although I'd still like to drive and wouldn't want to use FSD full-time, I could imagine the possibilities that would be opened up if the car could run certain errands by itself.

The bottom line is that Tesla needs to deliver FSD that works in some form better than today's, before continuously asking for more money.

 

[Microterf]

Where are you getting 40k from? A Tesla is at least 40k, and your suggesting they would pay another 40k for fsd. Thats 80k. At least.

who making the dumber argument??!

40k was the number for fsd earlier. 90k would be fair for the car plus FSD.

I guess I was assuming that your alcoholic blind friend already had a car since he racked up so many DUIs

 

[MikeHolliday]

Hey if I can have my Model Y with FSD can earn $'s, then that will can pay for my Cybertruck...

 

[run-the-joules]

Hey if I can have my Model Y with FSD can earn $'s, then that will can pay for my Cybertruck...

Other than the fact that there will be incredible amounts of supply and the revenues will drop precipitously, and fleet operators will be the only ones making enough money to make it worthwhile.

 

[Matias]

$99.99, but wait, we will give you a free coffee mug if you pay for a year in advance. And if you call within the next 10 minutes, Elon will personally answer your call and give you an "I Love Elon" lapel pin.

FSD is now 10000? With 100 a month it would take more than 8 years for those who paid 10k to break even. I believe FSD will be more than 100 a month.

 

[run-the-joules]

FSD is now 10000? With 100 a month it would take more than 8 years for those who paid 10k to break even. I believe FSD will be more than 100 a month.

you are apparently assuming tesla gives a crap about the people who paid for it already. There is no evidence to support that belief.

 

[MikeHolliday]

I am willing to bet that FSD will be $275 - $300 on a subscription... If someone sets up a Robotaxi do you honestly believe that they will pay only $5/day?

 

[qdeathstar]

So it seems Tesla is dropping the idea of fsd for everyone, focusing on fsd for businesses who set up a robot Taxi service.

that’s the only way to make the 40k make sense.

I mean, it makes since from a green perspective, but I want fsd in my own car.

 

[qdeathstar]

There is a big difference between what FSD is and what it can be.

Currently, FSD is a gimmick, toy-for-the-rich, investment into Elon's dream, total scam, or whatever term you choose to apply for something that costs a load of cash, but currently is delivering very little (except for Autopilot lane change). Especially screwed are the owners who bought into FSD years ago, don't even qualify for the beta (for whatever reason that is not transparent), and have limited life left in their Teslas.

However, if FSD is ever made reliable enough for Tesla to actually have a wide-rollout and the confidence for accidents to be rare enough to make good business sense to stand behind it, then $10k is a bargain. Even today, Autopilot in stop-and-go traffic provides a layer of safety, especially for the day-to-day commutes for the weary. Although I'd still like to drive and wouldn't want to use FSD full-time, I could imagine the possibilities that would be opened up if the car could run certain errands by itself.

The bottom line is that Tesla needs to deliver FSD that works in some form better than today's, before continuously asking for more money.

10-15k for fsd that works is certainly feasible. 40k isn’t.

 

[MikeHolliday]

Perhaps there will be one rate for cars that are Robotaxis and one rate for personal use...

 

[mikes_fsd]

Currently, FSD is a gimmick, toy-for-the-rich, investment into Elon's dream, total scam, or whatever term you choose to apply for something that costs a load of cash, but currently is delivering very little (except for Autopilot lane change).

I don't know about your definitions, but it would be impossible for a "gimmick" or a "scam" to take me on thousands of miles of road trips and feel a fraction of the fatigue I normally would experience without the current FSD feature set.

FSD is now 10000? With 100 a month it would take more than 8 years for those who paid 10k to break even. I believe FSD will be more than 100 a month.

Americans are Keeping Their Cars Longer in 2019 - Econo® Auto Painting
Americans are keeping their cars longer and longer with each year (11.8 years as of 2019).
I do believe that FSD subscription will be ~$200+ per month break-even in ~4-5 years. Probably will only make real sense for leases and folks that change up their cars every ~3-4 years.

 

[MikeHolliday]

I took a trip from Worthington, Ohio to Atlanta, Georgia at the end of November, 1,200 miles round trip. I ran my own business for years and traveled both by car and air. I could hardly believe the difference of how I felt physically after driving each way. Except for the Supercharger experience in London, Kentucky the entire trip was extremely smooth...

What I really realized is how important it will be to have some form of entertainment once FSD is fully implemented...

 

[Microterf]

I'm going on my first long road trip (Gulfport MS, from NW Ohio) at the end of March.

I love NOA, when we went to Indianapolis, it literally did 95%+ of the driving. I agree with definitely being less fatigued at the end of the drives.

 

[Charliek]

for me Id just like the 80% solution. I didn't buy FSD when I first leased the car in 2017 (I did get AEP then and that has had to evolve too. if you are at new at this then you missed it diving in front of trucks or almost plowing into stopped cars around a turn or weaving every time it saw a right exit line widening AND you spent 100k for the car.... but then I did take a chance on FSD when it was just 4k more. and even with that I had to upgrade to MCU2 and HWD 3 to get to where people are now for it to be reasonably useful and reasonably reliable . If what I have seen the video influencers getting with early FSD ( yes I know it is a bit of a misnomer) I think it that would work for me as FSD ( 2017 definition ) . to Drive me to and from places 99% of the time.

I still wouldn't let it go and drive itself some where until it was 99.9999999 ( maybe not even enough 9's really if you really want it to show up wherever you sent it to). I'll am very happy to watch it evolve and get better ( I call it my science experiment) and yes it will be a long time before I jump in the back seat and take a nap. for me on a road trip and even driving home from work I get about 95% full functionality.

As I have told friends it " only tried to kill me twice" My iPhone and Samsung phone has tried todo that too, but that's another story. it is fun to be a witness to history in the making but you have to put it in perspective. Not trying to sound technically elitist ( but I can I'm an engineer ) This is not meant for the masses yet so maybe pricing it to be for only those who really really want it would keep it working for those who will take the time to use it and understand it. and I have adjusted my expectation of "full self driving- tesla defintion" to level 3-4 ( that helped too) . and I agree some other term might work better ( there is enough debate in the posts here on that ) . Till then I'll wait like a kid on xmas for the next software load . one thing though. it would be nice to put out better release descriptions than "bug improvements" over and over again. We then have to run around trying to figure out what changed.