Unhappy with FSD sales and pricing

[MikeHolliday]

There are issues of redundancy and failsafe operation -- missing with the current hardware and software on our cars. One city, county, state may be opposed, and pass laws not allowing level 5. When the cop pulls you over, and the car must be able to do this automatically as a normal driver would, who is charged? In an accident, who represents the car? Laws must be written and enacted. Who will insure the car and passengers with no driver? Then we have the technical aspects you mention. The car must be able to drive in all environments safely. Snow and Ice on the road with others out driving on it, will a Tesla be able to do that in the next 5 years? Foggy or poor visual conditions -- Tesla relies way to much on vision technology for it to be effective in reduced visibility and will never match humans without added sensors. There is so much more that we are not near overcoming in the real world on our roads. Rockets are easy. There is no traffic or stoplights in space and things are fairly predictable - no pedestrians and animals running out between cars. FSD even out of Beta is no where close to Level 5.

I do not know where you live, but you should watch, DirtyTesla on YouTube. I live in Ohio and he lives in Michigan. I have driven my Model Y in Autopilot, through rain that I would have pulled over in, fog so thick that I cannot see the road markings, narrow two land roads that that have no markings and it stays perfectly in its lane even when being passed in the opposite direction. Then I watch DirtyTesla with FSD Beta drive on dirt roads and through all types of weather Michigan. We are getting closer...

 

[DerbyDave]

My Tesla cannot manage the one lane country roads with tall grass on each side and no markings. You have to pull over very far and slow way down when another vehicle approaches, perhaps finding a place to go slightly off the road on the right. The Tesla hardly can even get started on these roads, even with no oncoming traffic. Also, just going around curves, my car constantly crosses the line into the oncoming lane on normal 2 lane roads. It thinks railroad crossing signs are red lights even when they are off, and stops. Same with some flashing yellow lights. I think if I lived on the west coast, or in a big city, the Tesla would drive autonomously much better. It does do better on interstates, but still slams on the brakes occassionally while just cruising. I think Tesla may be patching anomolies in well traveled areas, so the car works better on well traveled roads. Perhaps the rewrite will help. That is what I am waiting on. Wonder where it is?

 

[MikeHolliday]

My Tesla cannot manage the one lane country roads with tall grass on each side and no markings. You have to pull over very far and slow way down when another vehicle approaches, perhaps finding a place to go slightly off the road on the right. The Tesla hardly can even get started on these roads, even with no oncoming traffic. Also, just going around curves, my car constantly crosses the line into the oncoming lane on normal 2 lane roads. It thinks railroad crossing signs are red lights even when they are off, and stops. Same with some flashing yellow lights. I think if I lived on the west coast, or in a big city, the Tesla would drive autonomously much better. It does do better on interstates, but still slams on the brakes occasionally while just cruising. I think Tesla may be patching anomolies in well traveled areas, so the car works better on well traveled roads. Perhaps the rewrite will help. That is what I am waiting on. Wonder where it is?

My Model Y does not stop at Railroad crossings in Ohio, it slows a bit, but I wish that it would slowdown more. I cross this Railroad track almost everyday and it never stops, but as I mentioned it slows a bit. I drive Bean-Oller Road, Delaware, OH (Google Earth the location). I drive this road almost everyday from the Olentangy River on the east to the Scioto River on the west occasionally there are a few faint center lines and it navigates it flawlessly. I navigated the road last week when it was almost totally snow covered in Autopilot. I am not saying that the Autopilot is flawless all of the time, but it does an incredible job. And as I mentioned, I watch new Youtubes on the FSD Beta and my jaw drops. I use Autopilot 95% of the time that I am in my car, it is my own opinion that the more you use Autopilot in your car the more responsive and accurate it become. There is some learning going on in car by car basis, I could be wrong, but I have observed some of its actions and that is the only explanation that I have at this time.

 

[Dwolfe]

@dckiwi yep. My thoughts exactly.

At this point, let anyone that wants to sign the waiver get FSD beta. One of the reasons I stretched my budget to buy a Tesla was to be part of the movement of autonomy.

I don't want the fully finished version to just show up one day (assuming they get there) , I want all the good and the bad together. I want to be able to see it learning however slowly it may be, and if hits a ceiling and they can't get any better, then I have a cool level 2 ADAS to show off as a party trick. (Just like smart summon is)

My thoughts exactly. We all know it’s a beta and we will keep a watch on performance.
It a great improvement over what we have now.

 

[MikeHolliday]

Navigating a snow covered round about...

https://twitter.com/SnoozeThroughF1/status/1361381105266434051?s=19

 

[am_dmd]

Navigating a snow covered round about...

https://twitter.com/SnoozeThroughF1/status/1361381105266434051?s=19

Let's try that with normal traffic.
FSD lacks any kind of situational awareness and just cannot take those "split second" decisions.

 

[MikeHolliday]

Have a look at Dirty Tesla's Youtube video from today...

 

[am_dmd]

Have a look at Dirty Tesla's Youtube video from today...

I would not call these as rush hour traffic in this drivers path. Yes FSD is doing a fine job guessing the lane lines but without traffic FSD does not need to make any on the spot decisions. It is easier to make right turn on multi intersection roads than left turn and look how far car has to stick out to check if the road is clear? Imagine doing that in rush hour and it just isn't going to work.
I have a feeling FSD beta will work for few who drives on wide open roads without any traffic just like how NoA works for those same folks. Tesla will call it feature complete with beta in parenthesis.

 

[MikeHolliday]

I do not have FSD Beta and I let my car drive in Autopilot 3 or 4 days per week. As far as I am concerned that is where is shines. Yes, I must physically turn the steering wheel at an intersection in the city, but its control of braking and throttle is far beyond what the average person can do. It does not "accidentally" take its foot off of the brake and tap another car, nor does it begin to accelerate until the car in front is moving.

As I mentioned earlier, I use Autopilot literally 95% of the time that I am behind the wheel. Do I have my hands on the wheel, am I staying very aware of the traffic around me, you bet ya. But as engineer somewhat understanding what it must do in order to be able to handle these current situations is nothing short of spectacular...

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

To be clear SAE Level 5 (the only relatively standardized definition) requires none of the things you laid out. All it requires different from Level 4 is: “Permits engagement of the ADS under all driver-manageable on-road conditions”

Level 4: “Permits engagement only within its ODD”

Also posted is this definition of it:
"The sustained and unconditional (i.e., not ODD-specific) performance by an ADS of the entire DDT and DDT fallback without any expectation that a user will respond to a request to intervene. "
With example:
"A vehicle with an ADS that, once programmed with a destination, is capable of operating the vehicle through out complete trips on public roadways, regardless of the starting and end points or intervening road, traffic, and weather conditions."
Tesla Full Self Driving Level 5 Autonomy

As long as the system can activate in all road conditions a human can and can safely fallback in such conditions if it comes to a situation it can't handle, it can qualify as L5. SAE does not specific what type of human level it needs to perform at (average? the best? the bare minimum allowed on the road?) They also do not specify the car needs to handle situations like police stops (or even hand signals for example). It in fact it specifies no tests at all. There is no minimum requirements for safety or driving ability (you can have one that drives like a student driver, and it's no less a L5 car than a system that can drive like an experienced driver).

The SAE Levels are independent of what a country, state, county or city will require for autonomous driving. It's not just regulatory bodies, but its also insurance. A company like Tesla might not find agreeable insurance partners any kind of autonomous driving due to the lack of redundancy.

Before Tesla even gets to the point of trying to get any necessary approval for autonomous driving they have to feel comfortable with it themselves. Even if they were to dismiss concerns about redundancy they still have the issue with overall poor performance in rain/snow. I say poor performance when we've seen mixed results, but mixed results is still an F.

The most we can realistically hope for is limited L4 driving, and that's being extremely optimistic. It's optimistic because the SW we can have now is unable to complete functionality we have now with the HW we have now.

As an example I'll use one of our favorite features and that's auto-lane change. Specifically auto-lane change on a 3 lane freeway from the left lane to the middle lane. It's a pretty basic operation where it needs to make sure the lane is clear, and there isn't anyone coming up from the rear or getting over from the right most lane. The problem the existing implementation has is that it occasionally misjudges the vehicle in the right most lane as being in the middle lane. This causes it to either delay the lane change or to abort a lane change in place. Now there is hope the 4D neural network will fix this, but it remains to be seen. It mostly happens with Semi's.

FSD is a product in active development where the requirements are really yet to be written. We don't know what the requirements will be because no one has written them down. Sure we have established rules for autonomous vehicle TESTING in various states, but not what it will take to get approval for autonomous driving being sold to consumers.

The fact that its in active development means engineers will hit walls in terms of the hardware not being able to do what the SW needs to do. The first big wall was with the HW2/HW2.5 computer, and they upgraded that to HW3. The other wall they probably haven't talked much about is the Front Radar as they seem to have one in development (or consideration).

Elon has already said it's likely the sensors will change. So I think we just have to accept that even Tesla doesn't expect the existing hardware to achieve autonomous driving.

This is why the FSD subscription model is so important. To free the hardware from the chains of unrealistic expectations on it. The only question is whether L2 feature sets will make FSD attractive enough for HW3 people to subscribe, and for existing FSD owners not to be absolutely livid.

 

[run-the-joules]

The only question is whether L2 feature sets will make FSD attractive ... for existing FSD owners not to be absolutely livid.

to save everyone the speculation: nope.

I didn't pay for FSD with the expectation of being a babysitter forever. I paid for FSD because tesla sold it as a product that would not require me to participate in the act of driving from home to work and back. If I have to pay attention or keep my hand on the wheel or anything else, I'm not getting what I paid for.

 

[MikeHolliday]

I spoke with an individual who works at my Insurance Carrier, they are seen a drastic reduction in accidents in which Autopilot was engaged.

Currently, I pay $217 every 6 months for 300,000 Liability, $100,000 Property Damage, Comp & Collision with a $750 deductible. Now I am almost 70 and I have a clean driving record. I just paid renewable for the 2nd 6 month premium with no increase.

 

[BlackPantherM3]

FSD is scam and Elon Musk is a con man. Tesla needs a new CEO.

 

[bjb77833]

I am very frustrated with FSD NOT RE LEASED TO THOSE OF US WHO HAVE PAID . My Model 3 is already a better driver than i am. But DAY BY DAY I AM GETTING A DAY OLDER. I NEED SELF DRIVING FOR SAFETY. FOR SAFETY.
THAT IS WHY WE INVESTED $60,000 . UMDATE BY UPDATE IT GETS BETTER BUT IT IS CLEAR JUST OVER THE HORIZON IS NIRVANA AND I AM FRUSTRATED THAT WHAT I BADLY NEED AND HAVE ALREADY PAID FOR IS BEIING DENIED TO ME. HURRY UP AND DELIVER WHAT WE WERE PROMISED. NOT IN 2ND Q 2021 BU5 NOW. THANKS FOR LISTENING MAKE THIS A PRIOITY BEFORE MORE GigaFactories and $25000 vehicl3s. PLEASE FSD NOW!

 

[BeerFizz]

Source?

Tesla Rep.

 

[MikeHolliday]

I knew that it must be something more. When you watch the Tesla Youtube on FSD, it literally performed better than the current FSD Betas. Which tell us that they are gathering data and learning from the Betas, but are not releasing all of the ability the the Beta Testers...

 

[run-the-joules]

Tesla Rep.

The rep probably doesn't know and is just making crap up.

 

[FarmerDave]

Questions:
1) Does the car act differently after the hardware upgrade?
2) Can one assume that an FSD purchase at any price (mine now $5k) will include a HW upgrade?
3) Did you have to nag them to get HW upgrade or was it automatic.

I just cleared 5 figures on Tesla stock, thinking of getting FSD.

1) The only difference I noticed was a few early features of FSD like stopping at stop signs were now available. I tried it once, but turned it off b/c it was immature, slowing way down 40 yards before the stop.
2) If you have hardware 2.5 then it will include an updated processor to version 3.0, which is needed for FSD. If you have hardware 1 or 2.0 you can't get FSD.
3) I had to schedule the service appointment, just like any other. They told me a Ranger could not do the work, so 200+ mile roundtrip to the service center.

 

[95gator]

I do not have FSD Beta and I let my car drive in Autopilot 3 or 4 days per week. As far as I am concerned that is where is shines. Yes, I must physically turn the steering wheel at an intersection in the city, but its control of braking and throttle is far beyond what the average person can do. It does not "accidentally" take its foot off of the brake and tap another car, nor does it begin to accelerate until the car in front is moving.

As I mentioned earlier, I use Autopilot literally 95% of the time that I am behind the wheel. Do I have my hands on the wheel, am I staying very aware of the traffic around me, you bet ya. But as engineer somewhat understanding what it must do in order to be able to handle these current situations is nothing short of spectacular...

Second that.

I don’t even mind my FSD cost if it wouldn’t do that without FSD. Would it?

 

[Kc5gts]

Elon Musk: Tesla will stop selling cars [Update: at consumer pricing] once full self-driving is solved

Once cars can operate as robotaxis, there would be little incentive for the company to sell them when they can generate revenue by operating them as taxis.

electrek.co