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Upcoming Catalysts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by surfside, Apr 27, 2017.

  1. surfside

    surfside Member

    May 6, 2013
    United States
    while i historically haven't been a frequent poster, i've enjoyed contributing to the Q1 2017 thread, and i have been thinking for a while that it would be helpful to have one place where we could keep track of upcoming catalysts that could impact TSLA (whether positively or negatively); ideally this opening post could be edited to updated over time with the most current information (and suggestion from TMC members); however, unfortunately, i don't think that is possible on TMC (someone please chime in if this is actually possible).

    in any event, i figured i would go ahead and try to compile a list of the biggest upcoming catalysts for TSLA; would be curious to hear thoughts on other items i may be missing. note that while i tried to put a timeframe on the first grouping of these catalysts, i recognize that many of these may be on "elon time".

    near term catalysts with specific dates / estimates:
    -sometime in april: solar roof begins accepting orders (i'm assuming information on pricing will be released concurrent with this)
    -may 3rd - 1Q 2017 earnings report and call on may 3rd
    -may/june - further evidence / progress reflecting the model 3 is on track to begin production in july, including commencement of gigafactory battery production for use in vehicles
    -july - model 3 final reveal; initial model 3 production begins
    -august/september - potential inclusion in S&P 500 if @luvb2b is right about his Q1 2017 EPS estimate
    -september - tesla semi reveal
    -before the end of 2017 - location announcements for gigafactory three, four and possibly five
    -before the end of 2017 - reach run rate of 5k per week of model 3 volumes
    -before the end of 2017 - full self driving demonstration from LA to NY

    other potential catalysts (unknown dates):
    -supercharger v3 reveal (including significantly higher charging speed capability?)
    -heads up display inclusion in model s / x / 3? (a guy can dream)

    -revealing program with top five U.S. homebuilder for the solar roof
    -revealing order book of solar roof following opening up for orders
    -providing specific revenue and/or earnings guidance for TE on a quarterly earnings call
    -posting automotive gross margins inclusive of the model 3 in excess of 15-20%
    -model y reveal

    -mass transit (city bus) vehicle reveal
    -pick up truck reveal
    -second generation roadster reveal

    -tesla network announcement / reveal of additional details
    -evidence of progress with regard to alien dreadnought (v1.0, v2.0, v3.0)

    full self driving catalysts (i felt this deserved its own paragraph):
    -beyond the LA to NY full self driving demonstration (which i'm guessing will likely be using a beta testing version of the autopilot software not pushed out to all AP2 hardware vehicles), i think evidence of the divergence between cars with enhanced autopilot activated vs. cars with full self driving activated that suggests tesla is indeed materially ahead of the competition on getting to fully autonomous cars will be a material catalyst for the stock
    -significant regulatory progress in laying out the framework or criteria for allowing fully autonomous cars in major jurisdictions (e.g. california)

    i put this list together fairly quickly; i know i am probably missing lots of upcoming catalysts, but figured it was worth going ahead and posting to get the discussion going!

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  2. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

    Apr 25, 2011
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    Not much to say -- it's a good list.
    • Like x 1

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