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Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by DrWumbo, Dec 5, 2016.

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  1. DrWumbo

    DrWumbo Member

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    Hey everyone, long time lurker here. I'm in the market for a Tesla soon and I was wondering what you guys think some near future updates are.

    I've heard that people are expecting a HUD during the Model 3 Part 3 around January-March that will be implemented immediately into the S/X then the 3. If this is the case I'd most likely wait until I could get it. Are there any other rumors going around?
     
  2. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #2 Troy, Dec 6, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
    Everything about this topic is speculation except the answer to the following question:

    What would happen if Tesla announced Model 3 features that are not available in Model S/X? The answer is simple. People would stop buying the Model S/X until that feature is available. Therefore all Model 3 features they will show off during the third reveal will either be already available in Model S/X or will be released the next day. For example, if Tesla says the Model 3 will have HUD, that means before the Model 3 gets that feature the Model S/X will have it first because Elon said the following:

    "People wonder, should I buy the Model S or the Model 3? The Model S and the X are always going to be our technology leader." Source

    The most speculated upcoming changes are as follows:
    • Model S/X 100D with 18650 cells to be released (95% likely in next 2 months). The P100D still uses 18650 as well. Elon said, "The cell is the same". Source
    • Solar car roof (not likely in next 6 months, 40% likely in late 2017, 50% in 2018). Details
    • Heads-up display (60% likely within next 6 months)
    • Automated front doors (50% likely within next 6 months)
    • 2170 cells (100% Model 3 will have this. 60% chance Model S/X will have it before Model 3, 40% after Model 3). Just to be clear, I don't expect a battery capacity increase over 100 kWh in 2017 (details). I think it will still be 75 and 100 kWh but the packs will use 2170 cells instead 18650. That means about 20% weight reduction at the pack level, a few miles range increase and slight improvements in performance and handling.
    • S60/S60D and S90D/X90D to be discontinued (50% likely in next 2 months. 90% likely within 6 months)
     
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  3. Snowstorm

    Snowstorm Active Member

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    I would expect some pretty significant updates in terms of tech to be announced when part 3 of the Model 3 is finally revealed. At that time, it would be reasonable to expect that most if not all of those update will be made immediately available on the S/X. The delay in the announcement may very well be re-tooling of the model S/X production line to support those upgrades. Elon said it will come 3-4 months in Nov, so maybe we can expect this to come Feb / March?
     
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  4. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    #4 sandpiper, Dec 9, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2016
    I agree 100%. Elon has stated (about a month ago) that the next reveal for the 3 would be in 3-4 months (so let's say June since Elon is never on-time). So I would expect that all of those features will be in the S/X before then.

    Add to the list:

    - New interior with the HUD by June (50%), 95% before the 1st 3 ships (December 31st 2017, at 11:59 PM).
    - P110D (or 115) by late summer next year as the 3 starts to loom. I don't believe that Tesla will hold at 100.

    Telsa will need the above two items to prevent the 3 from cannibalizing S sales. I think it will be the most significant year for changes since 2012.
     
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  5. apples1

    apples1 Member

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    I would say the Autopilot 2.0 was the most significant change since 2012. HUD is a minor change.
     
  6. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    Actually I would say that that the "D" event in late 2014 was the largest single change. The introduced AWD, insane mode, autopilot 1.0, some interior upgrades, electric brakes/steering, and a bunch of other minor things.

    But, on the whole, I expect all of 2017 to be huge year for changes. HUD is only one small part of it.
     
  7. apples1

    apples1 Member

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    I disagree and I don't see how having a 4WD is anywhere near as game-changing as having full autopilot hardware. Almost all car manufacturers have 4WD and most of the high-end ones have HUD. No production vehicle until the recent Autopilot 2.0 is able to do this level autopilot.
     
  8. whitex

    whitex Active Member

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    Neither can any Tesla vehicle in production. AWD was usable as soon as the first car rolled off the line.
     
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  9. apples1

    apples1 Member

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    I'm not sure how you're comparing AWD technology with self driving. Might as well compare it with self driving with auto windshield wipers.
     
  10. whitex

    whitex Active Member

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    Comparison was made purely on one feature being finished and ready, and the other being but a set of unbound (in terms of completion date) speculations of what it will do. Coincidentally, auto wipers fall in the second bucket of a feature without a deadline - you can't tell me there are any regulators preventing Tesla from releasing it.
     
  11. apples1

    apples1 Member

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    Economic reasons are stronger than regulatory reasons
     

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