Upcoming Updates

[DrWumbo]

Hey everyone, long time lurker here. I'm in the market for a Tesla soon and I was wondering what you guys think some near future updates are.

I've heard that people are expecting a HUD during the Model 3 Part 3 around January-March that will be implemented immediately into the S/X then the 3. If this is the case I'd most likely wait until I could get it. Are there any other rumors going around?

 

[Troy]

Everything about this topic is speculation except the answer to the following question:

What would happen if Tesla announced Model 3 features that are not available in Model S/X? The answer is simple. People would stop buying the Model S/X until that feature is available. Therefore all Model 3 features they will show off during the third reveal will either be already available in Model S/X or will be released the next day. For example, if Tesla says the Model 3 will have HUD, that means before the Model 3 gets that feature the Model S/X will have it first because Elon said the following:

"People wonder, should I buy the Model S or the Model 3? The Model S and the X are always going to be our technology leader." Source

The most speculated upcoming changes are as follows:

• Model S/X 100D with 18650 cells to be released (95% likely in next 2 months). The P100D still uses 18650 as well. Elon said, "The cell is the same". Source
• Solar car roof (not likely in next 6 months, 40% likely in late 2017, 50% in 2018). Details
• Heads-up display (60% likely within next 6 months)
• Automated front doors (50% likely within next 6 months)
• 2170 cells (100% Model 3 will have this. 60% chance Model S/X will have it before Model 3, 40% after Model 3). Just to be clear, I don't expect a battery capacity increase over 100 kWh in 2017 (details). I think it will still be 75 and 100 kWh but the packs will use 2170 cells instead 18650. That means about 20% weight reduction at the pack level, a few miles range increase and slight improvements in performance and handling.
• S60/S60D and S90D/X90D to be discontinued (50% likely in next 2 months. 90% likely within 6 months)

 

[Snowstorm]

I would expect some pretty significant updates in terms of tech to be announced when part 3 of the Model 3 is finally revealed. At that time, it would be reasonable to expect that most if not all of those update will be made immediately available on the S/X. The delay in the announcement may very well be re-tooling of the model S/X production line to support those upgrades. Elon said it will come 3-4 months in Nov, so maybe we can expect this to come Feb / March?

 

[sandpiper]

.... Therefore all Model 3 features they will show off during the third reveal will either be already available in Model S/X or will be released the next day. For example, if Tesla says the Model 3 will have HUD, that means before the Model 3 gets that feature the Model S/X will have it first because Elon said the following:

"People wonder, should I buy the Model S or the Model 3? The Model S and the X are always going to be our technology leader." Source

I agree 100%. Elon has stated (about a month ago) that the next reveal for the 3 would be in 3-4 months (so let's say June since Elon is never on-time). So I would expect that all of those features will be in the S/X before then.

Add to the list:

- New interior with the HUD by June (50%), 95% before the 1st 3 ships (December 31st 2017, at 11:59 PM).
- P110D (or 115) by late summer next year as the 3 starts to loom. I don't believe that Tesla will hold at 100.

Telsa will need the above two items to prevent the 3 from cannibalizing S sales. I think it will be the most significant year for changes since 2012.

 

[apples1]

I agree 100%. Elon has stated (about a month ago) that the next reveal for the 3 would be in 3-4 months (so let's say June since Elon is never on-time). So I would expect that all of those features will be in the S/X before then.

Add to the list:

- New interior with the HUD by June (50%), 95% before the 1st 3 ships (December 31st 2017, at 11:59 PM).
- P110D (or 115) by late summer next year as the 3 starts to loom. I don't believe that Tesla will hold at 100.

Telsa will need the above two items to prevent the 3 from cannibalizing S sales. I think it will be the most significant year for changes since 2012.

I would say the Autopilot 2.0 was the most significant change since 2012. HUD is a minor change.

 

[sandpiper]

I would say the Autopilot 2.0 was the most significant change since 2012. HUD is a minor change.

Actually I would say that that the "D" event in late 2014 was the largest single change. The introduced AWD, insane mode, autopilot 1.0, some interior upgrades, electric brakes/steering, and a bunch of other minor things.

But, on the whole, I expect all of 2017 to be huge year for changes. HUD is only one small part of it.

 

[apples1]

Actually I would say that that the "D" event in late 2014 was the largest single change. The introduced AWD, insane mode, autopilot 1.0, some interior upgrades, electric brakes/steering, and a bunch of other minor things.

But, on the whole, I expect all of 2017 to be huge year for changes. HUD is only one small part of it.

I disagree and I don't see how having a 4WD is anywhere near as game-changing as having full autopilot hardware. Almost all car manufacturers have 4WD and most of the high-end ones have HUD. No production vehicle until the recent Autopilot 2.0 is able to do this level autopilot.

 

[whitex]

I disagree and I don't see how having a 4WD is anywhere near as game-changing as having full autopilot hardware. Almost all car manufacturers have 4WD and most of the high-end ones have HUD. No production vehicle until the recent Autopilot 2.0 is able to do this level autopilot.

Neither can any Tesla vehicle in production. AWD was usable as soon as the first car rolled off the line.

 

[apples1]

Neither can any Tesla vehicle in production. AWD was usable as soon as the first car rolled off the line.

I'm not sure how you're comparing AWD technology with self driving. Might as well compare it with self driving with auto windshield wipers.

 

[whitex]

I'm not sure how you're comparing AWD technology with self driving. Might as well compare it with self driving with auto windshield wipers.

Comparison was made purely on one feature being finished and ready, and the other being but a set of unbound (in terms of completion date) speculations of what it will do. Coincidentally, auto wipers fall in the second bucket of a feature without a deadline - you can't tell me there are any regulators preventing Tesla from releasing it.

 

[apples1]

Comparison was made purely on one feature being finished and ready, and the other being but a set of unbound (in terms of completion date) speculations of what it will do. Coincidentally, auto wipers fall in the second bucket of a feature without a deadline - you can't tell me there are any regulators preventing Tesla from releasing it.

Economic reasons are stronger than regulatory reasons