Upgrade to FSD before increase?

[terboboost]

Yawn to all the naysayers. First you said "no autopilot voodoo for me". Then it was "of course I want the AP, but that's it". Then you started into "all I want is lane change on request". Next it became "NOA sure, but on subscription". Now it's "EAP is enough, I'll wait 10 years before FSD is worth anything". Well, hang on to your seats, it's all happening faster than anyone thought possible.

I'm not taken with the need for street level NOA, I'm in no rush, because freeway NOA is more important. But I'm sure glad I have the complete (FSD) Tesla package, and get to watch it evolve. If you can afford a Tesla, you want the whole thing.
.

This needs to be reiterated to infinity.

and lol to everyone who thinks an option should transfer with the vehicle owner. How ridiculous would it be if you bought a BMW with the winter weather package only under the conditions that every BMW you get on in the future had the winter weather package. "yea but FSD doesn't work right now"...umm, actually the $5k...then $6k...soon to be $10k FSD package that you bought worked at the relative price point that it was paid for, you just get the additional promise of an increasing feature set for no additional cost! As features are added, the price is going up, and the feature set is increasing at an exponential rate, so guess what the price is going to start doing.

To provide a bit of context to the "I like to drive too much" retort, I totally get this. I've been racing cars for the last 15 years, my "fun" car is a Toyota Supra, I LOVE to drive. But you know what I don't love doing...driving straight on a two lane highway for hours, sitting in bumper to bumper traffic, road tripping and not being able to relax...and the soon to be parking my car in a rainy parking lot or having to drive home to get my wife real quick. The price one puts on convenience is definitely subjective, but you don't need to use FSD all the time you still have the option to drive the car yourself whenever you'd like. A lot of people seem jaded over the years of waiting and Musk continuously missing timelines, which he's notorious for doing, but the other thing he's notorious for doing...eventually delivering exactly what sounded ridiculous X number of years ago. Call me a fanboy, call me naive...I believe at least level 3 autonomy (need to be behind the wheel, but you can text, watch videos, etc) will be available mid next year. Level 4 or 5 (I tend to think Tesla will skip over level 4 based on the new FSD beta), with regulatory approval, is 1-2 years away...and then refer to Fernand's quote

 

[toolman335]

I would buy it for $2k. That's about it.

 

[Fernand]

I would buy it for $2k. That's about it.

Good to know.
Would that be with or without the new Hardware 3 with the dual Tesla chips?
.

 

[Xambler]

How many Tesla owners do you think will actually keep their cars 10+ years? These are people that are generally on the cutting edge of technology. Obviously there are some, but I doubt many paid for FSD with the assumption they will have the same Tesla in 15-20 years.

10+ years? At least for Model 3/Y owners, I can see a lot of people staying with their first Tesla for that long easily simply because the game has changed with Tesla. With over the air updates, the car refreshes on a regular basis. With 0-60 of 3 seconds most of us will likely NOT buy a new Tesla just to better that...i was happy with the 4 second of the test drive vehicle but did jump at the $2000 stealth upgrade price (who wouldn’t). If people are already happy with a spartan interior with comfortable seating, I seriously doubt any changes there are going to drive an upgrade to a new Tesla...ditto for the exterior.

After 50 years of driving with no accidents, I wasn’t worried about losing FSD cost if my car was ever totaled...odds are low enough and truthfully I’ve lost more than that just on purchasing unreliable cars before that turned into repair money pits (1997 Jaguar xk8 convertible, 2008 BMW X5, 2000 PT Cruiser). I would say that unreliable cars and cars that just get annoying (rough idle, rusting out to point of stamping snow off your feet and having foot go through the floorboards, etc) were ultimately the reason I sold most of my cars.

Now, if I still have enough retirement money left when the cyber truck comes out, I might have to finally sell my 250k+ mile 1996 Tahoe though...will miss the body wrap.

 

[andy92782]

But, dude, trust me, the NOA system on freeways is amazing.

No it isn't. It's terrifying.

I bought the EAP option for my car in November '18. I've had plenty of time to try NOA. Even as recently as last week it was making super abrupt lane changes at 70+, then oscillating the car back and forth in the new lane as it corrects and re-centers itself. Tesla's had plenty of time to fix this. If a cop were behind me, the odds of being pulled over for suspected DUI would have been pretty good, IMHO.

The only thing NOA is good for is amusement, kind of like Space Mountain at Disneyland, only with less predictability.

 

[andy92782]

The service needs to become transferable to a new or replaced vehicle at this point. (Or say, within 7-10 years of payment)

10k is silly for what it is now. Moving to a subscription service makes more sense at this point. My guess is, subscriptions would be way down after trying it. (Currently)

I have it, it’s cool but nothing more than EAP really still.

I agree. The only way it even remotely makes sense to spend $10K on it today is to make it a transferable software license. But even then, I have a problem with it, and that is the fact that I am not a blind-faith Tesla serial buyer. I'll give you an example:

Way back in 2007, I bought A BMW 335i (E90). Sport Package, Premium Package, etc. The car was phenomenal, truly best in class in its day. I even took delivery of it in Munich using BMW's European Delivery Program... talk about a way of building customer loyalty! I happily drove it for almost 8 years but eventually, like most mechanical things (especially BMWs), they wear out and need replacement. By the time the mid-2010s came about, BMWs softened up. The interiors were cheapened and their handling prowess diminished. Their competitive advantage evaporated. Every time I drove the updated F30 model I was disappointed. "How could they screw it up so badly?" My BMW loyalty was lost. Now they've even released that atrocious 4 series coupe with the buckteeth radiator grille. WTF??

The same thing could happen with Tesla. It's entirely possible that in 5 years or more, "FSD" will still be where it is today; a close-but-no-cigar driver assistance system that still requires drivers to maintain vigilance at all times, giving plenty of time for other brands to catch up (or even surpass), especially in areas like build quality. And if that should happen, I'd be stuck "holding the bag" on a $10K+ software license that doesn't really do anything and can only be transferred to a new(er) product that I no longer want to buy.

Hell, the Model S is coming up on a decade in production and it's little changed today from its introduction. Who's to say a Model 3 won't follow a similar evolution? I like my car now but in 5-6 years I'm not sure I'd want to buy another one that's 90% the same. Life's too short to keep driving the same car forever.

Bottom line: If you've got $10K burning a whole in your pocket, you're much better off opening a brokerage account and investing it in an S&P500 index fund.

 

[terboboost]

Way back in 2007, I bought A BMW 335i (E90). Sport Package, Premium Package, etc.

Did BMW offer to transfer your sport and premium package to future vehicles, or did you pay for them understanding you bought a depreciating asset including the options?

My BMW loyalty was lost.

That's not loyalty, that's called being a fair weather fan

 

[andy92782]

Did BMW offer to transfer your sport and premium package to future vehicles, or did you pay for them understanding you bought a depreciating asset including the options?

You're comparing apples to oranges. Sport and Premium packages are hardware items. Fully understood they were "use it or lose it". "FSD" is different. It's software. It could be transferrable... If Tesla chose to sell it that way.

Hell, even BMW is getting onboard with the software subscription model:
BMW wants customers to pay a subscription fee to use features the car already has installed, like a heated steering wheel or adaptive cruise control

 

[mact3333]

I just upgraded to FSD....but mine cost 62,990.00...

 

[hlin07]

There's really NO WAY to value how much FSD is worth. It's worth as much as a person's willing to pay for it.
If someone wants to pay 10k for FSD, then it's worth 10k. Just like those ancient paintings, to me they're worthless, taking up space, but one man's trash is another man's treasure.
For me, it's NOT WORTH 8k, not even 10k.
Here's my logic. Average Americans keep their new cars for 7 years, so let's use 7 years.
Cars depreciate over time. The FSD you pay 8k for, after 5 years, it's worth less than 4k and the current used car market shows us that people DON'T value FSD as much.
If our Tesla can't figure out how to change lanes properly and phantom breaks on a regular basis, what government entity in their right mind will approve hands free driving, so regulatory obstacle will all but ensure we can't utilize autonomous driving soon. Say autonomous driving is approved in 5 years, the value of FSD is worth less than half now, so the question is is anyone willing to pay for enhanced autopilot (cool factor)
Bottom line - I can't trust FSD in street driving, just too many variables. Now if you got the money to burn and want the latest and greatest BETA testing software, go for it. One should only buy FSD base on what it CURRENTLY can do, that way, anything new is icing on the cake.

 

[StellarRat]

Back in 2018 when I bought my M3 I thought the buy page said you could upgrade to FSD "later" for $4K (??). I seem recall somewhere that people that bought the M3 fairly early would always be able to get it at the originally offered price. Does anyone know the real details?

 

[DFibRL8R]

Back in 2018 when I bought my M3 I thought the buy page said you could upgrade to FSD "later" for $4K (??). I seem recall somewhere that people that bought the M3 fairly early would always be able to get it at the originally offered price. Does anyone know the real details?

My current upgrade page on the Tesla app says $5k for FSD from EAP.

 

[boriszima]

Back in 2018 when I bought my M3 I thought the buy page said you could upgrade to FSD "later" for $4K (??). I seem recall somewhere that people that bought the M3 fairly early would always be able to get it at the originally offered price. Does anyone know the real details?

Yep, that was true in 2018. Welcome to 2020. now prices have risen.

 

[StellarRat]

My current upgrade page on the Tesla app says $5k for FSD from EAP.

That's what mine says too. Isn't that what everyone pays?

 

[MP3Mike]

That's what mine says too. Isn't that what everyone pays?

For now. It will go to $7k next Thursday.

 

[Chewy3]

Curious what people think of other possibilities:

You buy FSD for $8k, next month you buy a new Tesla and are able to transfer it but at the current market price of $10k. FSD is removed from the old one and you pay an additional $2k to get unlock it on the old one. (similar to leaving a grandfathered plan)

Subscription: what if it's per Tesla account and NOT vehicle? Family of 3 with 2 tesla's and 1 driver has the subscription. Only their phone key has the FSD features, Tesla only allows your account to be signed in from 1 device at a time. (obviously some people will go through the hassle of logging in and out of each other's accounts but that's not the point). Borrow a friend's Tesla, maintain your features.

Either way I prepaid $8k in 2018 for FSD. Already got a free upgrade to HW3, will continue to get any required upgrades for free. I viewed it as a future proof insurance.

 

[Let's Drive]

Hard no, for me. Part of my buying the M3P, was that I like driving it. I use EAP on the highway and especially in traffic, but I rarely use NOA and have less reason for the FSD features, especially since it's not fully autonomous.

At the rapid pace Tesla is improving, it makes more sense for me to hold onto the 10k (actually 5k), and put it towards a future, improved version of the Model 3 (I already want the heat pump, for example). By then, we'll have improved hardware, lighter batteries, more range, stiffer chassis, etc.(things I'll more readily appreciate), and I can better evaluate where this entire FSD thing is going.

I'm intrigued with the tech, but dumping 5k+ into my 2018 that already has EAP? I don't see much of a point.

 

[terboboost]

You're comparing apples to oranges. Sport and Premium packages are hardware items. Fully understood they were "use it or lose it". "FSD" is different. It's software. It could be transferrable... If Tesla chose to sell it that way.

Then you should fully understand that this particular software feature is "use it or lose it". When you buy a new laptop, do you transfer over your version of windows? Wheels are hardware that's arguably easier to swap over then adjusting account settings, you don't transfer those over when you buy a new car, right? Point is...hardware or software, does not correlate with whether it stays with the product or not.

Software or hardware really doesn't make a difference, it's still convenience/safety features that had a finite amount of labor put into it that needs to be paid for by someone someway.

You guys are just sour it's an expensive option that you want but can't (or "won't) pay for.

 

[andy92782]

You guys are just sour it's an expensive option that you want but can't (or "won't) pay for.

It's not that I can't (or won't) pay for it. It's that I don't want it in the first place. It offers no practical value, nor will it for several more years at a minimum.

 

[Let's Drive]

When you buy a new laptop, do you transfer over your version of windows?

You can.

You guys are just sour it's an expensive option that you want but can't (or "won't) pay for.

Not sure what this is about. FSD is unlike anything people have really seen, and so they're trying to determine a value or market bearing price. Both public understanding and regulation are lagging behind it, and both will have huge impacts on how it will be implemented in the future (look at how the EU has restricted various AP features).

What you're talking about is not just an expensive purchase, but a gamble based on faith. If you're comfortable with it, that's certainly fine, but as intrigued as I am with the technology, the forces at play beyond the control of Tesla, also factor into the decision. There's nothing wrong with waiting for clarity.