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US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

seattlite2004

Active Member
Apr 12, 2016
1,186
1,341
Puget Sound
This article and graphic might help folks put things into perspective regarding the Fed Tax and the availability of the SR: US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

federal-credit-phaseout-estimation-chart-v2016-final.png

I'm gonna wait another month or so....but the Bolt could be an opton for folks that are waiting for the SR and want the incentives. I'm kinda pissed that I missed out on the 2017 Bolt closeouts....most 2017 Premiere models in my area were $7500 off...so about $37K before tax incentives.
 

Boourns

Active Member
Mar 9, 2016
1,549
1,956
Dallas
I was actually just thinking about this. Keep in mind this article is about a year old and contains this note:

Editor’s Note: The wild card for Tesla is of course when volume production gets underway for the Model 3. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has stated a desire to produce 100,000 (or more) in 2017, from a ‘best case’ launch in July 2017 (that even the CEO puts as *asterisk beside).

Given the time that has passed since those hopeful projections, knowing where the company is today, and its past track record on launches – we tend to think that nowhere near 100,000 Model 3s will see the light of day in 2017…so we are lightly penciling in about ~15,000 deliveries in 2017 in the US for the inexpensive future Tesla.
 

apacheguy

S Sig #255
Oct 21, 2012
5,083
1,243
So Cal
Even though it’s a year old, their projections seem to be quite reasonable given what we know. They were wise to ignore Elon’s production goals in their analysis.
 
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Boourns

Active Member
Mar 9, 2016
1,549
1,956
Dallas
Even though it’s a year old, their projections seem to be quite reasonable given what we know. They were wise to ignore Elon’s production goals in their analysis.

Seems like the assumption was even optimistic in terms of cars delivered at 15,000 Model 3 delivered in 2017. I think we're only now in the 7k to 8k range in Model 3 VINs, so likely everything should be pushed back a quarter at least.
 

jsmay311

Active Member
Apr 22, 2016
1,120
1,644
Chicago suburbs
Now might be a good time for InsideEVs to update that year-old chart.

The actual end-of-2017 numbers were ~168k for GM (vs 180k predicted in that chart) and ~162k for Tesla (vs 175k predicted). And the predicted Q1-2018 numbers are definitely too high for both as well.

Granted, since those year-old predictions had Tesla hitting 200k so early in Q2, there's a good chance it'll still happen in Q2, albeit later in the quarter. So the tax credit phase out schedule likely remains the same for Tesla. But I bet GM slips to Q3.
 

2virgule5

Supporting Member
Dec 6, 2013
667
1,912
Union county NJ
Now might be a good time for InsideEVs to update that year-old chart.

The actual end-of-2017 numbers were ~168k for GM (vs 180k predicted in that chart) and ~162k for Tesla (vs 175k predicted). And the predicted Q1-2018 numbers are definitely too high for both as well.

Granted, since those year-old predictions had Tesla hitting 200k so early in Q2, there's a good chance it'll still happen in Q2, albeit later in the quarter. So the tax credit phase out schedule likely remains the same for Tesla. But I bet GM slips to Q3.

Hopefully our experts will come w/ updated numbers soon. I estimated (below) right after the Q4 ER that we would cross the 200k threshold by end of May, so unless S/X diverted to international markets (and some M3 in Canada?) & even slower M3 output, tax credit is cut in half starting Q4.

Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
 

2virgule5

Supporting Member
Dec 6, 2013
667
1,912
Union county NJ
Another data point is that Model 3 is coming to Canada early.. Sounds like Tesla plans on making sure the 200k car in the US is delivered in April instead of the end of March. That would extend the 7500 through the end of 2018.
If Canada is really getting LR Model 3 by end of Q2 in significant numbers, it may even mean that 1st day of Q3 becomes a less remote possibility - they would need to shift ~ 15.000 cars elsewhere that the US for the first two quarters.
 
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PaulJB

Member
Feb 2, 2016
144
119
Denver
I really hope that they take every measure to try and put off the 200k car until Q3, if possible. Even if it delays people's cars in the US, I think they'd prefer the full tax credit instead. But is it realistic to push the 200k car from sometime April/May to July 1? That seems like a stretch...
 

Kant.Ing

Member
Apr 21, 2016
700
443
Pacific Coast, US
I really hope that they take every measure to try and put off the 200k car until Q3, if possible. Even if it delays people's cars in the US, I think they'd prefer the full tax credit instead. But is it realistic to push the 200k car from sometime April/May to July 1? That seems like a stretch...

Maybe to make the cars in China? A many sided sword. Somehow I really hope Tesla is like a local business but given its capitalization this big, I cannot imagine where their investment has gone to.
 

kengchang

Active Member
Jul 17, 2017
2,350
14,035
California
Another data point is that Model 3 is coming to Canada early.. Sounds like Tesla plans on making sure the 200k car in the US is delivered in April instead of the end of March. That would extend the 7500 through the end of 2018.
Er no. It was never going to across Q1 with the delayed ramp. Seems like Tesla is aiming Q3 now with the Canadian delivery bump
 

2virgule5

Supporting Member
Dec 6, 2013
667
1,912
Union county NJ
I really hope that they take every measure to try and put off the 200k car until Q3, if possible. Even if it delays people's cars in the US, I think they'd prefer the full tax credit instead. But is it realistic to push the 200k car from sometime April/May to July 1? That seems like a stretch...

Yep, looking like a ~15.000 cars stretch, that is a lot. Now in Q2 they would produce another 30K+ LR-Premium M3, could they push 10k in Canada and the rest as S/X to international markets?
 

JBare

Member
Mar 30, 2016
219
112
Northern VA
Er no. It was never going to across Q1 with the delayed ramp. Seems like Tesla is aiming Q3 now with the Canadian delivery bump

That's what I'm thinking/Hoping as an East Coast non-owning line-waiter hoping for the SR with a slight maybe for the dual motor depending on the cost. September delivery seems like a 0% chance, while getting it by the end of the year would even be dicey
 

KGTES

Member
Aug 8, 2017
44
23
Dallas
Is there any way to know for sure what the delivered vehicles (S, X, 3) count is for Tesla @ end of Q4, 2017 or to-date?
With the most recent delay, I am trying to figure out my chances of still getting the full 7500 credit (1st day line waiter, non-owner)
 

michaelwb

Member
Apr 2, 2013
144
155
Los Angeles, CA
The tax credit phase-out could actually work in Tesla's favor. They can tell reservation holders to buy a $50,000 Model 3 Long Range this year -- because after the $7,500 tax credit, it ends up costing "about the same" as a Model 3 Standard Range (with PUP) in 2019 without the tax credit.

The probability that a reservation holder can double dip with both a Standard Range car and the tax credit is slim, IMHO.
 

PaulJB

Member
Feb 2, 2016
144
119
Denver
The tax credit phase-out could actually work in Tesla's favor. They can tell reservation holders to buy a $50,000 Model 3 Long Range this year -- because after the $7,500 tax credit, it ends up costing "about the same" as a Model 3 Standard Range (with PUP) in 2019 without the tax credit.

The probability that a reservation holder can double dip with both a Standard Range car and the tax credit is slim, IMHO.

It definitely will work in Tesla's favor to get more people to stretch for the First Production, if possible, and I wouldn't have minded had they been clear about expectations for different configurations. Minor adjustments in expectations are not a big deal. But their communication and guidance has been awful on the Model 3.

Also, I would't call getting $7,500 off the $35K car double-dipping, which sounds negative. Its actually closer in alignment to the goal of the incentives, which is helping people afford an EV. Getting $7500 off $50K car that comes with various premium upgrades actually seems more divergent from the goal of the incentive. It'd have been nice if a couple people buying the $35K car could have gotten the full incentive...

(For clarity, I'm not looking at the SR car.)
 

gregincal

Active Member
Oct 26, 2012
3,764
2,294
Santa Cruz, CA
I'll just point out that although some Canadian reservation holders have mid-2018 estimates for AWD, so do some US reservation holders, and mid 2018 doesn't necessarily mean Q2. I just see the moving up of Canadian reservations as part of selling more higher margin cars before moving on to lower margin cars. That seems much more likely to me than the amount of effort it would take to move the 200K limit into Q3.
 

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