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US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by seattlite2004, Feb 8, 2018.

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  1. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    The Model S and X face lift is going to happen some day. We probably won't see dramatic changes in things people really want, though there will be more battery capacity at some point. The may be some other gadgets that people will want. Who knows?
     
  2. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

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    And yet- Tesla continues to sell cars as fast as they can make em.

    It's almost like none of that hurt sales or something.





    ... what?

    The top 3 selling vehicles in the entire country first half of 2018 were... the Ford F-150 pickup.... the Chevy Silverado pickup.. and the Dodge RAM pickup.

    Combined they sold about double the number of units (and at much higher profit margin) than the top 3 sedans... (which were the Camry, Civic, and Corolla)
     
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  3. MXWing

    MXWing Well-Known Member

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    I’m a Tesla bull but I’m drinking the Teslaqila.

    Tesla is not expanding their S / X cars and discounting inventory models. That’s not a scenario where demand massively exceeds supply.

    Tesla has to work to sell those cars.

    Elon mentioned something like 400KW pickup trucks?

    How much would that cost you think?
     
  4. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

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    I mean... not much... the S remains the #1 selling full sized luxury sedan, and Q2 sales on the X were the highest they've ever been (and predicted to continue higher in coming quarters per their Q2 report).


    Where'd he mention that?

    I saw mention of possibly an optional extra battery for maybe 500 miles of range- which you could easily do for half that much battery.

    The X goes 295 miles on a 100 kwh battery after all.
     
  5. kengchang

    kengchang Member

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    I think Elon only mentioned running your tools all day long from the truck's battery.
     
  6. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #586 AnxietyRanger, Oct 13, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2018
    Well, that is a good question.

    In Q3/2016 Tesla pushed AP1 cars with massive incentives (including previously unheard of two-year leases), resulting in the best quarter volume of their history at the time - followed by a rather lackluster quarter when AP2 was ramping up. From the comms and leaks at the time, it was evident Tesla realized the ramp-up of new features would hit their volumes, so they were going for the kill with Q3/2016 before that... The fact that they pushed AP1 cars just before the non-upgradeable transition did not stop them - it didn't even stop them from offering P100D option for AP1.

    Fast-forward to late 2018 and Tesla has been using the simplified Model 3 setup as well as apparently delayed Model S/X facelifts as a way of keeping the factory rolling at maximum pace. The U.S. incentives deadline probably adding to this pressure, as is of course the stock market watching their every move towards profitability. Pushing what they have now makes sense. It is hard enough, just keep making and selling what you have with maximum effect...

    Personally, I believe Tesla has been delaying some features on Model 3 and a Model S/X interior facelift due to either technology maturing/availability and/or manufacturing simplicity/cost. If there is a HUD coming, it seems like a likely part of this delayed mix. Can't bring it to Model 3 before Model S/X gets it, can't bring it to Model S/X before they facelfit the dash and possibly other interior... It might come in Q1, Q2, Q3, who knows by now.

    As for upgradeability for existing Model 3s, there is of course is some precedent on Tesla offering hardware upgrades (early parking sensors, some limited-time/delayed battery and/or Ludicrous upgrades have happened, LTE upgrades happened widely, MCU2 is probably coming as an upgrade on Model S/X etc.). On Model 3 it certainly is possible they've prepared for it in the design, if the "spaceship controls" comment from Elon was related to a HUD... (On current Model S/X expect no upgradeability of course.) there is also the interior camera which some suggest might be related to augmented-reality head tracking.

    That said, if I had to guess, I'd personally not trust that a HUD upgrade option will become available. Seems like a risky move to trust that, given that we don't know how extensive hardware changes such a feature might require, as it probably won't be a small HUD but rumoured to be a big one and thus feature new types of projection technology.

    There is also one added angle: Model 3 European launch. Q1 perhaps? This could potentially coincide with some changes to Model 3 manufacturing, as they have to refresh the manufacturing lines for European cars anyway (or to perhaps a lesser extent, the U.S. SR introduction could also coincide with such). One potential change is the charge port, could CCS support happen? Could that affect U.S. manufacturing too, and other features... HUD? ...who knows?

    And then, of course, there is the elephant of a potential AP3 with new sensors in the room. But, again, who knows. There might be easily just one or then again four quarters before any such changes.

    As for my speculation on HUD in general etc., this is where I've summarized my thoughts. Nothing much has happened in several months in this area, so there isn't really anything new to add...

    Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    By the time it comes out, sub $40k for a 400 kWh pack. But 200kWh @ $20k would make a compelling utility vehicle (300+ mile range). Especially paired with faster superchargers.
    $20k for pack, $15k for body/drive units, $15k gross profit, $50k for truck. SR version $40k.

    500kWh is roughly the short range Semi.
     
  8. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

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    Anybody who paid for FSD gets all the upgrades for AP3 free... the fact they knew that when designing the 3 is why I expect any needed upgrades to be entirely modular and easy to add to older cars (they've already said the computer is a quick swap at an SC)

    The interior camera seems far more likely to be what replaces "hands on wheel" for insuring you're paying attention on EAP... that's what Caddy is already using and getting to advertise as the only "hands off" driving assist system.


    I know there's a big hot-for-hud contingent but personally I never liked em in any car I've driven with one- on paper I expected to LOVE em before I ever drove one, but in reality never have... they're not terribly expensive MFG wise, so if we were gonna see one I'd think we already would have in the first place....I think the existing 3 already shows how little info a driver actually needs in front of them...and as EAP gets better (and FSD begins to exist) there's less and less need for it.

    I could maybe see a fancy AR one coming in an S/X redesign just as something that cost like 0.1% of the car but is a nice "show off" feature... but maybe get basic stuff like waypoints in Nav that others were doing 15 years ago working first?
     
  9. diamond.g

    diamond.g Active Member

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    Doesn't the X lose like half its range when towing? Something Tesla would have to take into account when talking about battery size.
     
  10. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Yah, so a 200kWh pack would give the pickup unloaded X like range while towing. Doubling pack size gives more than double the available energy since the low end buffer isn't doubled also. If the 100 pack uses 90 for example, 200 would use 190.

    The aero profile of the pickup may help in the amount of range lost when towing also.
     
  11. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Realistically, while I do expect Tesla to swap AP computers for those who paid for FSD, I do not expect Tesla to add any new sensors for a hypothetical AP2/2.5 => AP3+ upgrade. Just the computer is swapped.

    AP1 was definitely not upgradeable to AP2, and AP2 does not seem to be upgradeable to AP2.5 in non-computer area. So while latter two may get a version of AP3 computer, that I expect is the likely extent of any retrofit there.

    Now, whether a HUD retrofit option might appear for Model 3 as a separate thing? Personally, I think it is risky to wait for such. Less risky to assume not going to happen.
     
  12. Dr. J

    Dr. J Member

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    And that's why some purchased FSD for $3,000 even though it's vaporware at the moment. For the promise of an upgrade, if needed.
     
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  13. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

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    You are confusing paying for AP and paying for FSD.

    With drive on nav, EAP is feature-complete for AP2/2.5 cars (though presumably will continue to get incrementally better at doing those features). No need to upgrade anything. You got what you paid for.

    FSD is a different set of features. If the car needs a new computer and new sensors, and you already paid for FSD on an AP2/2.5 car, you get all that upgraded free hardware.

    AP1 cars don't get any upgrades because FSD was never offered for those cars.
     
  14. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #594 AnxietyRanger, Oct 14, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2018
    I am not confusing, I am merely citing history and Tesla's messaging: "AP3" computer swap has been told to apply to Model S/X/3 cars with FSD option bought, if they need it. (EAP-only cars are said to not get this because EAP aka Drive on Nav does not need it.) Nobody has even mentioned retrofitting any other hardware for this. I am intimately aware of this history, having followed it and bought cars related to it through 2014-2017.

    Sure, I agree EAP-only cars are not (as announced) being offered retrofits and does not seem to need them.

    It was an example of past (lack of) Autopilot hardware retrofits. Pre-AP was not offered AP1 retrofits, AP1 was not offered AP2 retrofits, AP2 has not been offered AP2.5 retrofits etc. AP1 cars were promised many features that never appeared too, unfortunately, such as "meeting you on the curb", stop-sign recognition, automatic off-ramp based on navigation ("8.1 in December 2016"), real blind-spot detection etc.

    But that wasn't my point. My point was, Tesla doesn't have a history of upgrading AP hardware in general. They have made a specific exception: the AP2/2.5 computer for FSD (even that has included the caveat: if necessary). That is an exception to an otherwise simple rule - otherwise the story has been that AP hardware is too prevalent throughout the car for retrofits and that the 2016 AP2 already has everything needed for Level 5 autonomy (except perhaps CPU/GPU power which would be swapped if needed, which was the only stated caveat at the).

    Assuming they might suddenly start retrofitting more than the computer seem IMO a very risky speculation or interpretation of history. I believe AP2 will forever remain AP2, except limited upgrades (e.g. new "AP3" computer) for FSD-enabled cars. I believe AP2.5 will forever remain AP2.5, except limited upgrades (e.g. new "AP3" computer) for FSD-enabled cars. AP3 might remain AP3 forever, without anything from AP4, but who knows so far ahead...

    The HUD retrofit conversation for Model 3 is of course separate from this. It is at least plausible Model 3 might include some preparation for such a HUD retrofit (IMO risky to believe so, but at least not unthinkable). But I doubt Model 3 includes any preparation for an "AP3" retrofit, though, beyond swapping the AP computer as the need may be.

    This is the crux of our difference in opinion. I just don't believe the latter - the part I underlined - to be likely. New computer yes, new sensors - especially the addition of more sensors - unlikely. I am happy to agree to disagree with you, but just highlighting this difference in our beliefs.

    Nowhere has Tesla ever suggested retrofitting anything beyond swapping the AP computer for AP2/2.5 customers who opted for FSD. This also makes sense, especially AP2 processing power is insufficient, Tesla is making their own chip for "AP3", and swapping the computer is a relatively low-effort task (behind the glove compartment in Model S/X, behind the screen/dash in Model 3).

    Adding and wiring new sensors or redundancy components throughout the car? Wiring cabling to bumpers and pillars, swapping sensors, possibly cutting new holes and attaching installation points (or swapping large pieces of exterior)...? I find that very unlikely personally. The only precedent we have are the early (paid) Model S parking sensor retrofits and those were on a vastly smaller scale both in pervasiveness and most importantly simply car volume...

    AP 2.5 already has new sensors - color cameras (at least in markers) - whereas AP2 does not. AP2.5 also has significant new wiring and fusing related to redundancy. I really don't see Tesla retrofitting those to AP2 and there has been no sign or talk of that. First AP 2.5 only features have also appeared (dashcam) and, again, no talk of offering retrofits to AP2 cars. Sure, FSD has not shipped yet, but again, nowhere has Tesla mentioned retrofitting anything but a new computer...

    Perhaps retrofits beyond swapping the AP computer could happen in some very limited fashion, say if steering redundancy required swapping also some electronics unit or limited cabling, or installing the e-fuse or swapping some particular camera if it was really problematic, something like that together with the new computer... but wiring and replacing new sensors around the car to match future "AP3" or beyond? No, that seems really doubtful to me. Think of the enormity of such a task - and the fact that not once has Tesla mentioned offering such a thing.

    My belief is Tesla will simply put more limitations on FSD in older cars in software, than upgrade the entire suite to match future improvements in hardware. I fully expect this for my own AP2 FSD Model X, it has already started with the dashcam (though not really AP, and this particular thing might change if "AP3" computer helps with this issue eventually, just noting a point).

    Personally I wouldn't trust anything beyond swapping of the AP computer as happening after the fact. There are many examples of Tesla simply moving on to the latest and greatest, and increasingly fewer recent examples of Tesla retrofitting old cars to match.
     
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  15. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

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    Then it's weird you keep talking about HW upgrades for EAP, when the only time Tesla has mentioned them for driver assist functions has been for FSD.




    Because they don't need them.

    But FSD cars are promised those hardware upgrades to do what was paid for.

    That's the distinction you seem to not be making.


    Were they?

    There seems to be some confusion between "Here's what Tesla offically said AP1 would do when you bought it" and "Here's what Elon suggested it might do some time in the future, maybe, if you parse his words a certain way"

    In the AP1 launch for example he mentions the camera can SEE stop signs...not that it would actually react to them in any way. The camera certainly CAN see em...it's a camera after all.


    And nobody said otherwise.

    We're talking about upgrading FSD hardware

    Which they have explicitly promised to do for those who have cars and paid for FSD.

    Again you're mixing up AP and FSD....

    The fact the same computer runs both systems doesn't change the fact that is not an AP upgrade, it's an FSD upgrade.


    But if it needs both then upgrading the computer makes no actual sense

    And since we know they're upgrading the computer, there's one 2 possibilities.

    1) That's all FSD needs. The sensor suite in 2.5 is good enough.

    or

    2) They will do the other upgrades needed for FSD as well, including sensors.

    Otherwise why upgrade the computer at all?


    Every single time Tesla has said anything about "if an upgrade is needed for FSD" their reply has been "It will be upgraded, free, for FSD owners"

    That was the case during the 2->2.5 change, and now again during the 2.5->3 one coming up.

    So again- why would they bother if they'd also need to change the sensor suite but don't intend to?



    FSD isn't a specific limited feature set like AP, so you can't really do that.

    While they are going to roll "bits" of FSD out at a time, at the end you either have a system that does what was promised, or you don't.

     
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  16. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Happy to agree to disagree @Knightshade. I think our opposing opinions are clear enough. :) We shall see.
     
  17. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

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    Fair enough.

    Personally my concern is Teslas confidence in its ability to do L5 FSD with the current sensor suite and I don't really buy that... even if they get the AI/Vision stuff perfect the cameras simply don't see enough.

    See for example the inability to offer a 360 parking view, because the cameras can't see low enough or the cases of folks who've had autopark hit things because they were too high or low for the sensors to detect them...


    L3/L4 driving, especially on highways and maybe elsewhere, I'm pretty confident we'll see that in the much nearer future than some folks think, with current sensor HW and the AP3 computer....

    But things like "car will go find its own parking spot after dropping you off" I'm a ton less confident in, and see a lot of curbed wheels and other issues on the way there.
     
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  18. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate your post @Knightshade.

    To be clear, I share your doubts about the extent to which FSD is possible on AP2/2.5. It is not hard to imagine many, many things that might limit the abilities of the current suite of both sensors and operating equipment like steering/braking redundancy (especially on AP2), starting with simple things like weather or blind spots you mention...

    I believe our difference in opinions is basically how we believe Tesla will tackle this, beyond swapping the FSD computer which we both believe in. My belief is Tesla's hardware retrofits will be limited to an AP computer swap and perhaps minimal accessory changes - the rest they will simply limit either by things like weather- or geo-fencing in software, or by requiring the driver to remain in charge, falling back on the regulatory limitations disclaimer, or the like.

    I made this illustration of the blind spots back in 2017 based on real AP2 B pillar, repeater camera images and roughly guesstimated front and rear camera blind spots:

    [​IMG]

    360 surround-view of the car (DRIVE PX 2 stitches camera images)

    It is of course true that my belief is hard to reconcile with Tesla's Level 5 talk. It is what it is. We shall see what happens in the future! :) Interesting times nevertheless.

    In any case, a nice response @Knightshade. Thank you for it. Take care!
     
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  19. Troy916

    Troy916 Member

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    Per Elon, no sensors, only the computer needs to be changed [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  20. Knightshade

    Knightshade Active Member

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    Per Elon 2 years ago the AP2 computer was good enough for FSD. Then came 2.5. Now 3 is coming. FSD isn't here yet.

    So I wouldn't put much stock in that remark.
     
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