Yeah... April 5th 2016.
(If this was intended as a joke, I'm sorry for not getting it.)
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US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker
- Thread starter seattlite2004
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- Model 3
Yeah... April 5th 2016.
(If this was intended as a joke, I'm sorry for not getting it.)
Any risk Tesla hits 200k BEFORE start of Q3? Seems pretty hairy how they going to have to shift things around while making investors happy.
Reason is I just got invited to configure M3 (reservation done only 4 weeks ago) and I do not want it as offered to me...I want AWD and not sure the price will be under 55k.
It is strange to me that there were 500k reservation holders in front of me. Does that mean that only 20k or so people are willing to pay for the current model? If I hold my reservation for AWD then will I receive that in 2019 only (based on Reservation queue)?
Finally would there be a big official announcement when automaker hits the 200k? I have a Bolt and I am surprised GM is going to hit the mark before Tesla. And GM can't play the international delivery as much.
Reason is I just got invited to configure M3 (reservation done only 4 weeks ago) and I do not want it as offered to me...I want AWD and not sure the price will be under 55k.
It is strange to me that there were 500k reservation holders in front of me. Does that mean that only 20k or so people are willing to pay for the current model? If I hold my reservation for AWD then will I receive that in 2019 only (based on Reservation queue)?
Finally would there be a big official announcement when automaker hits the 200k? I have a Bolt and I am surprised GM is going to hit the mark before Tesla. And GM can't play the international delivery as much.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
It's highly likely that Tesla will hit 200K in June before 3Q begins if they continue to ramp the Model 3 production.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
There certainly is a possibility Musk will decide to do it anyway.
Remember though, the $7500 continues for the full Q that the trigger happens in and then a full Q after that. Even if it triggered in late Jun and you said "bag it, I'm ordering RWD to ensure the full tax credit" you'd have close to 100 days to take delivery and still get the full credit.
One interesting thing about a path to 199.9K in Q2 is that it surely involves introducing AWD production. Introducing AWD necessitates significant slowing of Fremont production, probably to the point of a full turn-around (AKA "shutdown"). If Tesla wants to do this "mid-2018", as they have stated, it seems highly counter-productive to do that in Q3 when they want to be moving even faster than Q2. Doubly so if it also means that's the last Q for the $7500 tax credit (which is likely to grease up-selling rates with customers).
Investors might moan about mid-Q2 looking a lot like mid-Q1. However:
1) the results at the end of Q1 seems to have satisfied enough for now (stock has at least partially bounced back in the face of an ugly wider market)
2) end-of-Q2 mirroring end-of-Q1, only a higher number like 4K/week, just loads the distribution logistics without adding to deliveries
3) they've probably got multiple thousand M3 unit sales they can do in Canada outside the 200K cap
4) it sets up a good potential for a banner Q3 and maybe even Q4 (later depends on what they decide for timing on the SR pack, and how that could impact Gigafactory lines, and maybe Fremont to a lesser extent), by "banner" I mean a "40,000 Model 3s delivered, $230Mil revenue on top of typical S/X numbers" in a quarter range of banner. If investors aren't at least modestly happy with that I'm not sure what could satisfy. *shrug*
So the delay fits with a payback back just the quarter after, and then another payback the quarter after that.
Further, if your thinking is "hairy, so Tesla won't try it" I'm not sure you've met the CEO before?
That's because it's not the case. From your sig, you're a prior Tesla owner. You got the "jump everyone that doesn't already own an S/X/Roadster" bump. Membership indeed does have it's privileges!
Hello, fellow Bolt owner!
(my avatar is legit)GM won't, but still currently expected to hit before year-end. If you're talking about that graphic @FlatSix911 ("known quantity" here *sigh*) linked above, that's from a guess made 2 years ago. The author was uncannily on with Tesla but somewhat over-estimated GM.
Yes, there will almost certainly be public statements about hitting the cap at some point. People need to know that date for when they are filing for the tax credit, or at least know the fiscal Q it falls into.
P.S. Good luck on the AWD choice. If I was in your position I'd be inclined to hold off until the AWD announcement, to at least first check what the price is.
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It doesn't matter if they build it, only if they sell it.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Tesla sends out another Model 3 configuration invite batch despite production shutdown
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Tesla is still not inviting non-owners who reserved after April 1, 2016 in the US, which they have done for owners. It’s important to note that many people who get invited don’t actually turn the reservation into an order for whatever reason – though the main one is generally because the configuration that they want is still not in production.
Over the last three weeks, Tesla was able to maintain a production rate of about 2,000 units per week, which is expected to result in many deliveries over the next few weeks. This week, Musk explained that the production shutdown is to update production systems in preparation for increasing the rate. There’s no indication that new features are coming to production after the shutdown.
The first new option is expected to be the dual motor powertrain, which Musk says is now planned for July. Furthermore, the latest invites are still going to US-based reservation holders – still giving no indication that Tesla is going to focus Model 3 deliveries in Canada in order to push the 200,000th US delivery. This represents the threshold for the start of the federal tax credit phaseout.
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Tesla is still not inviting non-owners who reserved after April 1, 2016 in the US, which they have done for owners. It’s important to note that many people who get invited don’t actually turn the reservation into an order for whatever reason – though the main one is generally because the configuration that they want is still not in production.
Over the last three weeks, Tesla was able to maintain a production rate of about 2,000 units per week, which is expected to result in many deliveries over the next few weeks. This week, Musk explained that the production shutdown is to update production systems in preparation for increasing the rate. There’s no indication that new features are coming to production after the shutdown.
The first new option is expected to be the dual motor powertrain, which Musk says is now planned for July. Furthermore, the latest invites are still going to US-based reservation holders – still giving no indication that Tesla is going to focus Model 3 deliveries in Canada in order to push the 200,000th US delivery. This represents the threshold for the start of the federal tax credit phaseout.
Nguyenning
Member
Any chance Standard Range will come out in time to get the full $7500 tax credit?
All signs point to no.... assuming you need to take deliver by September 30, and all Standard Range estimators say "Late 2018"
All signs point to no.... assuming you need to take deliver by September 30, and all Standard Range estimators say "Late 2018"
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
I think the graphic needs to be updated to reflect 6,150 US sales in April
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
kingjamez
Member
Will GM sell a single Bolt after their tax incentives drop and Model 3 is widely available?
Sure ... If the price is low enough. Dealers always sell below MSRP, and Chevy can dump the price. They'll sell every unit they make.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Considering GM sells only about 2K or so Bolts a month their incentive is going to be going an awful long time after Tesla incentives have dried up.
lirandy
Member
When I bought my Spark EV, I had $3k dealership discount and 20% off MSRP cash rebate from Chevy. Ended up $20.5k OTD before any tax rebate & credit. When they really discounting their cars, it can be real cheap.
Don't forget Volt also qualifies the $7500 tax credit
Nissan also started pushing hard on the new Leaf. Here in cali, if you are with PG&E for your electricity, you get another $3k off on the Leaf. This stacks with the $7500 federal, the $2500 Cali, and $500 additional PG&E rebate. This makes the base model of the new Leaf cheaper than a Civic (~$16,500) purchased outright...
Yep, all ten of them
... maybe a little more than 10:Yep...and as another post mentioned...the Leaf's can also be heavily discounted. There are some compelling deals to be had on EVs.
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Catman20009
Member
I'm seeing some significant discounts on new Leafs and 2017 Bolts right now. So currently they're at a good price point. Both GM and Nissan having trouble moving anything other than SUVs and trucks right now. It's still a good time to negotiate. And it might get better this summer as M3 sales pickup and sedans keep sitting on the lots.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Good information, but for all that is Holy and right with this world ... please, no more Cali. It sounds just like Frisco...
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
The updated US Sales total for Tesla – 183,801 (estimated, excluding Tesla Roadster). The countdown to 200,000 begins!I think the graphic needs to be updated to reflect 6,150 US sales in April
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