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US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker
- Thread starter seattlite2004
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- Model 3
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
It's almost over ... Tesla – 183,801 (estimated, excluding Tesla Roadster)
And to be clear, they exclude the Roadster because it doesn't count towards the 200,000 because it was sold prior to the reporting period that does count.
I still have no doubt that they'll push 200,000 US into July to keep the $7,500 until the end of 2018.
It's already almost end of May. Tesla will be biggest idiot to cross it in June.
Totally. At this point, if they have to, it's easy to produce but not deliver. My pushed back delivery date says July for a reason.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
Followed by massive logjams at service centers in August.I think we need to have a huge July 1st delivery party at the Factory!
I thought that some of the Roadster deliveries did count, but there wasn't good data to know how many to include.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Pre 2010 don't count and the inside EVs totals put them all pre 2010 or it's just really vague what they mean for the "other category" there.
Tesla exceeds 1,500 Roadster deliveries worldwide Says 1,500 were delivered worldwide before 2011 but how many were US after Jan 1 2010? It can't be very many. But I suppose it's greater than 0. Call it 200?
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Troy doesn't cite a source so as far as I know he pulled that number out of his...
For all we know its anywhere from 0-800 but it's more likely to be at the low end of that range if I'm the one pulling numbers our of my...
So I'll pull 200 out and we'll have to see if my 200 or his 590 is closer come July 2018.
Per "Troy"....he's 96% sure that full tax credits will be good till 9-30-2018.
Links to his discussion/analysis:
Last post: r/teslamotors - [Discussion] Re-configure from RWD to AWD: has anyone done it? What's the strategy?
Tesla’s progress to 200k US deliveries & Federal Tax Credit Phaseout/OP UPDATED 5/7/18
Links to his discussion/analysis:
Last post: r/teslamotors - [Discussion] Re-configure from RWD to AWD: has anyone done it? What's the strategy?
Tesla’s progress to 200k US deliveries & Federal Tax Credit Phaseout/OP UPDATED 5/7/18
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
It should be noted that this is a source who was very wrong in the past- I was supposed to be getting my Model 3 in late November and it will be July 2018.
The problem with analysis with incomplete data is, even if that data is reliable and well-researched, you simply don't know what you don't know and history shows many boneheaded results from business to intelligence agencies.
Tesla has a big stake in the game when it comes to average sale price and reservations turning into orders, and hitting 200k in late 2Q doesn't serve either of those.
The problem with analysis with incomplete data is, even if that data is reliable and well-researched, you simply don't know what you don't know and history shows many boneheaded results from business to intelligence agencies.
Tesla has a big stake in the game when it comes to average sale price and reservations turning into orders, and hitting 200k in late 2Q doesn't serve either of those.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
If you analyze the speed of a car heading towards a stop sign you can be 9x% sure it will roll through the intersection without stopping if you ignore the fact that the driver is likely to push the brakes.
Troy just puts his bias in there and then puts BS percentages on them to make it sound like he has some sort of certainty.
I'm 90% sure that his 9x% sure scenario is the wrong one.
June 30th is the stop sign, Elon Musk is the driver. I think he'll put on the brakes before hitting the intersection of 200,000 and June 30th and wait for July 1st to roll around before stomping on the go pedal.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
well the OTA software update for those on the Model 3 might be out this weekend
But even without that I thought it was a good analogy.
Tesla won't hold S/X (higher margin/revenue) delivery but they will hold Model 3 delivery to push 200K into Q3
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
No need to hold back S or X, ship as many of those as they have orders for, full speed ahead. No matter if they are US, Canada, overseas, to Mars, wherever, any one they can sell ship it.
Model 3 they can ship as many to Canada as they have orders for, full speed ahead.
Model 3 production they can keep going, full speed ahead whenever they want in June.
Model 3 deliveries for US they need to hit the brakes in June, hit the go pedal in July.
Yes and Musk only promised positive cash flow/profitable Q3/Q4, not Q2.
They just have to show hitting 5K/weekly, decent amount of Model 3 production in Q2 and large number of Model 3 in transit for a decent Q2
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