US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[Benz]

There already are similar threads for China and Europe.

The US is the primary market for Tesla Motors.

Let's gather all the Tesla related information regarding the US market in this thread.

For January 2015 there have been mentioned several sales/delivery numbers:

Inside EVs: 1,100

Link: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

HybridCars (January 2015 Dashboard): 1,300

Link: http://www.hybridcars.com/january-2015-dashboard/

Best Selling Cars Blog: 2,250

Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015...ral-motors-strong-in-market-up-14/#more-49885

The real numbers should be somewhere inbetween.

And as time goes by, more information will be reported.

It's very likely that the numbers reported from a particular US state will be more accurate.

All we have to do is add them up.

Let's do that in this thread.

Cheers

 

[Benz]

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) publish their California Auto Outlook every quarter on their website.
The sales figures of the Tesla Model S can be found in the Luxery and Sports segment (and also look further down the document).

2012 Q2: 8 (June)
2012 Q3: 109
2012 Q4: 1,113

2012 total: 1,230

2013 Q1: 2,406
2013 Q2: 2,308
2013 Q3: 1,823
2013 Q4: 1,793

2013 total: 8,330

2014 Q1: 1,533
2014 Q2: 954
2014 Q3: 1,239
2014 Q4: ?

2014 Q1+Q2+Q3: 3,726

2012 + 2013 + 2014 (so far) = 13,286

Maybe someone can find Tesla Model S sales numbers from other US states as well?

 

[RationalOptimist]

Wild that California (pop 38m) did the same sales in 2013 as all of Europe (pop >300m) did in 2014. You could view that as disappointing by Europe. Or you could view it as untapped potential.

 

[chickensevil]

I think because of VA not yet allowing a Tesla "dealer" it is unclear if the registration data for VA is counting Tesla at all. If it is, it could either be under "imports - other" or "domestic - other".

Just so we might be able to figure this one out here is their list of manufacturers:
Imports:
ACUR
BMW
FIAT
HOND
HYUN
INFI
JAGU
KIA
LEXU
MAZD
MERC
MITS
NISS
OTHR
SUBA
TOYO
VOLK
VOLV


Domestic:
BUIC
CADI
CHEV
CHRY
DODG
FORD
GMC
JEEP
LINC
OTHR

Assuming Tesla falls under the Domestic - Other category then the total number for January is listed as 17. Given the above list, thankfully all the companies I can think of that would normally fall in a low volume "other" category would also be an import, so what other domestic seller is not already listed above?

Data pulled from here:
Statistical Reports | Virginia Automobile Dealers Association | Driving Virginia Since 1943

 

[Benz]

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) publish their California Auto Outlook every quarter on their website.
The sales figures of the Tesla Model S can be found in the Luxery and Sports segment (and also look further down the document).

2012 Q2: 8 (June)
2012 Q3: 109
2012 Q4: 1,113

2012 total: 1,230

2013 Q1: 2,406
2013 Q2: 2,308
2013 Q3: 1,823
2013 Q4: 1,793

2013 total: 8,330

2014 Q1: 1,533
2014 Q2: 954
2014 Q3: 1,239
2014 Q4: ?

2014 Q1+Q2+Q3: 3,726

2012 + 2013 + 2014 (so far) = 13,286

Maybe someone can find Tesla Model S sales numbers from other US states as well?

2014 Q4: 2,384

2014 Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = 6,110

2012 + 2013 + 2014 = 15,670

Link: http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal_Covering_4Q_14.pdf

 

[bonaire]

Wild that California (pop 38m) did the same sales in 2013 as all of Europe (pop >300m) did in 2014. You could view that as disappointing by Europe. Or you could view it as untapped potential.

If you look at the reservation Tally breakdown of either the Model S back in 2013 when TMC was tracking reservation numbers - or the Model X Tally thread now which shows the breakdowns by region - the ratio was about 4:1 or so of North America to Europe. So, California and Europe track somewhat closely. Whether it is untapped advertising to educate people more in order to place a new order or not - the balance of interest appears to be relatively constant between Model S ordering and Model X ordering when comparing the two regions. In one compare, the NA total vs. European total of Model X is as follows 4.5:1 based on 18010:3929. Not sure if it is "conclusive" but I'd say the California market and European market demand are roughly about the same.

It seems to be getting better now versus back in 2013. It may be that Europe is "picking up" comparatively.

Model S mid-March 2013 US Prod:EU Prod about 6:1
19,984:3,002

(numbers above are reservation #s and not deliveries - by which reservation numbers are indicative of demand)

 

[Benz]

2014 Q4: 2,384

2014 Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = 6,110

2012 + 2013 + 2014 = 15,670

Link: http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal_Covering_4Q_14.pdf

Total global Tesla Model S deliveries
2012 + 2013 + 2014 = 2,650 + 22,477 + 31, 655 = 56,782

15,670 / 56,782 = about 27.6%

So, about 27.6% of all global Tesla Model S deliveries in the past 3 years were delivered in California.

What does that mean for the total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in California in 2015?

 

[schonelucht]

I expect model S sales in California to be lower in '15 if Tesla manages to bring Model X to its customers by the 3rd quarter. Based on prior history, California will get prioritized deliveries for the new car. With a backlog of 20k, few California-S slots will be left in the production schedule.

 

[chickensevil]

I expect model S sales in California to be lower in '15 if Tesla manages to bring Model X to its customers by the 3rd quarter. Based on prior history, California will get prioritized deliveries for the new car. With a backlog of 20k, few California-S slots will be left in the production schedule.

It depends on if they are sacrificing the S delivery schedule to accommodate the X or if it is added on top. Based on the shareholder letter of 800 MX a week by the end of the year, it almost sounds like they are going to take the MS to 1200 and then go flat from there for the rest of the year. So it will give the appearance of "peaked" demand... but I don't necessarily think that will be the *real* peak. (note that is a run rate of about 60k a year of MS).

 

[Benz]

Total global Tesla Model S deliveries
2012 + 2013 + 2014 = 2,650 + 22,477 + 31, 655 = 56,782

15,670 / 56,782 = about 27.6%

So, about 27.6% of all global Tesla Model S deliveries in the past 3 years were delivered in California.

What does that mean for the total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in California in 2015?

There are currently 27 live Supercharger stations in California. And in Q1 2017 this total will have increased to about 50. I think that this will be certainly helpful to increase sales numbers of the Tesla Model S in California in 2015 and beyond.

 

[Ingenieur]

Any thoughts on March US Sales?
Can we beat Dec 2014?
If EU is 4000 for Q1, NA at 6000 and Rest at 1000, thats beat of 1500 cars

 

[Ingenieur]

What are you talking about regarding last sentence?


As for 100 PT, this is where i see the stock long to mid term, im willing to play the upside if there is a beat on deliveries.
Sorry that i actually post information on this forum you wont find nowhere else, especially regarding Chinese market, i wrote about scalpers being responsible for bulk of orders back in October and attacked by permabulls like you.



The way i see things play out: Big beat on deliveries announced by Mid April, stock goes to 220, then loss 200+ Mio -> down, see why i ask?

 

[daniel Ox9EFD]

1) Great idea for a thread. This was certainly missing.

2) Optimists/pessimists/profession+"-ists": please lets get back on topic.

3) Besides looking at InsideEVs numbers, is there any way to bound the uncertainty on NA numbers?
If it is 1100, 1150 for Jan, Feb, it doesn't look like a beat. But the estimate were all over the place. One way to solve this would be to take a weighted average, with weights by prior accuracy. But being too lazy for that, perhaps someone has a good estimate, preferably based on registration numbers?

 

[daniel Ox9EFD]

Some estimates:
InsideEVs estimates (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/):
Jan: 1100
Feb: 1150
hybridcars estimates (http://www.hybridcars.com/february-2015-dashboard/):
Jan: 1300
Feb: 1400
Average:
Jan: 1200
Feb: 1275

Ratio of March sales to average Jan+Feb in 2014: ~1.2
Using same ratio for this year:
Mar: 1485

This gives an estimate for total US for Q1: 3960

Assuming US is around 50% of world production, expecting total deliveries in Q1: ~8000.

For a beat they need an extra strong US in March or extra strong Europe.

 

[RobStark]

Perfect storm may be coming where Model S is number one BEV sold in America!

 

[SR22pilot]

Georgia has removed its $5K subsidy for electrics and added a $200/yr tax. While this may hurt Tesla a little I think it will crater the Leaf. Leafs are everywhere around the northern Atlanta metro area. Nissan says Georgia is responsible for a third of all US Leaf sales. That means this change is very significant.

 

[svp]

According to this - Focus2move | USA Light Vehicle Sales - April 2015
2205 Teslas sold in April, not 1700..

 

[Gerasimental]

According to this - Focus2move | USA Light Vehicle Sales - April 2015
2205 Teslas sold in April, not 1700..

This number, as well as that posted by Rob are just estimates made by the respective websites that publish them, since Tesla doesn't release monthly sales information.
What I find odd is that they disagree so wildly about Q1 numbers, with InsideEVs having 4700, vs 6082 (=8287-2205) for focus2move.

However, it seems from the EU thread that April EU numbers are 800+X, well below the 1200 required to achieve the same numbers as Q1 without an end of quarter push.
I expect therefore that we will see a heavier focus on US deliveries this quarter. That way Q2 has good margins despite the €/$ situation while Q3 will see far more deliveries to the EU, being a mixture of those at the old (lower) and new (higher) price, slightly softening the blow from very low margins on EU cars ordered before last week.

 

[svp]

Gerasimental, yes, just estimates. Another number here - 1650 - EV Sales: USA April 2015
Regarding end of quarter push, we'll start seeing how that changes monthly numbers distribution when May and June numbers come out.
He may have just referred to the last few days frenzy. Hard for me to see Norway deliveries for example at just 700 this quarter (230 in April * 3).

 

[bonaire]

Georgia has removed its $5K subsidy for electrics and added a $200/yr tax. While this may hurt Tesla a little I think it will crater the Leaf. Leafs are everywhere around the northern Atlanta metro area. Nissan says Georgia is responsible for a third of all US Leaf sales. That means this change is very significant.

It is because GA gave the rebate to people doing 2-year Leases on Leafs. Making the car basically free for a year. GA should have considered purchase-only and something like $4000 per sale. Doing a quick 2-year lease will cause a glut of them on the used lots fairly soon. I see the next-gen Leaf having 150 mile or more range and that is what may help them sell at the same level as today. The 80-mile range limit was good for hard-core BEV enthusiasts but they need the triple-digits and more for real folks to buy them.