US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[willow_hiller]

I'll need to update my figures.

Only 6 more months of data, but the drop off from Q1 of 2019 really rattled the model. Forecast 18 months forward to Q4 2020 this time:

And added quite a lot to the seasonal variability predictions as well:

 

[Doggydogworld]

Nice, I didn't realize they updated their data. I had done some Bayesian time-series analysis as it stood in 2018. I'll need to update my figures. But here are the old ones for now:

Here's their annual BEV sales forecasted to 2020:
View attachment 486366

And here's the implied seasonal variation in BEV sales. If this Q4 seasonality holds up, TSLA is going to have a blockbuster quarter!
View attachment 486369

Your 95% confidence interval was roughly 400-650k. Actual will be ~250k based on InsideEVs data and my own estimates. Reverend Bayes, why have you forsaken us?

Times like this make me wonder if those who say we should ignore everything else and focus soley on government policy when forecasting EV sales don't have a good point.

 

[willow_hiller]

Your 95% confidence interval was roughly 400-650k. Actual will be ~250k based on InsideEVs data and my own estimates. Reverend Bayes, why have you forsaken us?

The chart is showing monthly sales, so I'm amazed you were able to intuit cumulative sales so well. The forecast with data ending December 2018 predicted about 520,000 BEVs sold in 2019, with a lower limit of about 410,000 and an upper limit of about 640,000.

Once we factor in the last 6 months of data, the actual recorded 6 months (about 110,000 according to the source) plus the latter half of the year modeled equals about 230,000, with a lower limit of 175,000 and an upper limit of 280,000.

Really goes to show how greatly the halving of Tesla's tax credit impacted the entire US BEV market.

 

[RobStark]

 

[willow_hiller]

I've seen a lot of speculative as to the reasons of the SP action today, but in the main thread I didn't see any discussion of the impact of the passage of the USMCA trade deal on the SP.

I'm thinking that potentially, the stipulation that cars will need higher percentages of North American made parts could help Ford and Tesla. Thoughts? I was reading that a Nissan Leaf can be as low as 25% North American manufactured parts.

Additionally, the deal has provisions that will lead to higher wages and greater unionization for Mexican autoworkers. I wonder if this could hurt Ford's bottom line with the Mach-e.

 

[RobStark]

I've seen a lot of speculative as to the reasons of the SP action today, but in the main thread I didn't see any discussion of the impact of the passage of the USMCA trade deal on the SP.

I'm thinking that potentially, the stipulation that cars will need higher percentages of North American made parts could help Ford and Tesla. Thoughts? I was reading that a Nissan Leaf can be as low as 25% North American manufactured parts.

Additionally, the deal has provisions that will lead to higher wages and greater unionization for Mexican autoworkers. I wonder if this could hurt Ford's bottom line with the Mach-e.

Ford Mexico is already unionized. On average Ford blue collar workers make $5k/hr plus benefits. Benefits in Mexico are extensive, like Child Care during factory hours, breakfast and lunch, but cheap from Detroit's point of view.

I can see how this helps vertically integrated Tesla as Tesla does not have a facility in Mexico. Any increase in parts prices will affect rivals more bu no crazy parts price increases from trade war tariffs though.

I don't see how it helps or hurts one Detroit firm more than another.

LEAF used to be 85% Japanese before 2014 when they imported battery cells from Japan.

I am not sure if US assembled/made LEAF pays tariff into Canada but LEAF is ~$1500 more in Canada but I think it also carries higher content, like standard cold weather package.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Electroman]

Is that to scale to compare relative sizes?

 

[RobStark]

Is that to scale to compare relative sizes?

The original Tweeter said it was to scale.

I can't confirm.

I know that Tesla has the option to lease more land around GF1 in Nevada.

Edit Changed "buy" to "lease"

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

2020 vision: Lower but stable sales in the U.S.

 

[RobStark]

U.S. Tesla Sales Graphed Through Q4 2019

 

[RobStark]

 

[Spidy]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

So the main reason BMW and Mini are so high is because they have lower sales volume. Mini is actually listed under BMW and has a smaller chart than the i3.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[willow_hiller]

It would be interesting to see how correlated this map is with charging infrastructure (or EV knowledge). The blue states that prefer the Mach-e may ironically be lacking in the EA infrastructure they'd need to make the Mach-e feasible for longer trips.