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US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Benz, Feb 4, 2015.

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  1. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    The weird one is Nevada. Maybe it is a Northern Nevada vs Southern Nevada rivalry thing where Las Vegas/Clark County is the huge population hub.

    States that buy a lot of EVs tend to prefer Model Y while states that generally reject EVs tend to prefer Mach E.

    It is still ~9 months before Mach E Job 1.

    North Central passage from Helena Montana to Minneapolis Minnesota may be filled by then.

    That was the last major route filled by Tesla too.

    upload_2020-1-15_17-56-49.png
     
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  2. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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  3. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Well, Tesla fell from 6th in Q3 YTD to 8th for entire 2019 year.

    California 2019 Sales .

    Brand
    ..................CA 2019.................................... % Share
    1. Toyota........325,049 ...........,............................17.2
    2. Honda........241,632.........................................12.8
    3. Ford...........165,143..........................................8.7
    4. Chevrolet...131,826..........................................7.0
    5. Nissan........98,049...........................................5.2
    6. Merc Benz...77,005..........................................4.1
    7. Subaru........76,013..........................................4.0
    8. Tesla.........72,625.......................................3.8
    9. BMW...........70,837..........................................3.6
    10. KIA..............68,333..........................................3.6
    11. Lexus..........62,181..........................................3.3
    12. Hyundai......61,929..........................................3.3
    13. Jeep............58,446..........................................3.1
    14. Volkswagen..46,712........................................2.5
    15. Mazda..........42,570........................................2.2
    16. Ram.............41,455.........................................2.2
    17. Audi..............40,175........................................2.1
    18. Dodge..........33,762........................................1.8
    19. GMC............31,926.........................................1.7
    20. Acura ...........21,223........................................1.1
    21. Land Rover ..17,240........................................0.9
    22. Infiniti............14,634........................................0.8
    23. Porsche........14,593........................................0.8
    24. Volvo.............12,308........................................0.7
    25. Cadillac.........11.400........................................0.6
    26. Mitsubishi.....8,582.........................................0.5
    27. Chrysler........7,710..........................................0.4
    28. Mini...............7,148.........................................0.4
    29. Buick............7,081..........................................0.4
    30. Lincoln...........6,463........................................0.3
    31. Jaguar...........5,305.........................................0.3
    32. Alfa Romeo....3,926........................................0.2
    33. Genesis.........2,515..........................................0.1
    34. FIAT................1,433..........................................0.1

    Total.........................1,427,578 ..................................100

    https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-19.pdf
     
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  4. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    Beat BMW and Lexus and was within shouting distance of Mercedes. Not bad considering their only CUV started at $85k.

    CA sales were ~20% of the global total and ~40% of US. That's down from ~25/50 before the Model 3, showing greater acceptance outside of their home turf.
     
  5. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    The fall in Q4 IMO was probably to due starving CA to feed The Netherlands.

    I see Tesla getting the 5th spot this year with Model Y.

    Nissan appears to be in freefall. They said they are targeting profits not market share, so smaller discounts.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. willow_hiller

    willow_hiller Active Member

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    That's fascinating Tesla made it into the top 20 makes, but not the top 25 models. I guess a few of the big automakers have single models that sell like hotcakes (mostly pickups), but the vast majority of their sales come from offering so many different models, as opposed to a few great ones.
     
  8. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    I
    InsideEVs estimate 159k Model 3s sold in the US in 2019, so I think they just missed the Top 25.
     
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  9. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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  10. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  11. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  12. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  13. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  14. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Hard to believe some of these states data. Iowa is 36% wind power and I would think would rate higher than Minnesota, which is 18% wind and S. Dakota is about 70% renewable, which is similar to California. Northern Illinois, which is mostly nuclear also has a high carbon footprint for EV's, which i don't understand.
    Regardless of the precise numbers today, they should all be rising up significantly over the next few years. Indiana is moving from coal as their primary source of electricity to wind power (based on costs) and the South East US, which is the most conservative politically, is also moving away from coal to wind and solar.
    The graphic got me looking for more updated content and this link to the Union Of Concerned Scientists article is great, showing some over time data and how much cleaner we are getting. In many areas the grid is more than 50% cleaner since 2009 and the trend should be increasing in speed. A 20% increase in Solar\Wind generation today is much more by total watts than a 100% increase would have been in 2009.

    New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner
     
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  15. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    Show pollution of electric power generation.
    Show pollution of transportation (different vehicles).

    Silly to conflate these two differnt things - just because those against EV make bogus claims. (you can counter when ever they make such a bogus claim)
    I doubt this chart would change the mind of anyone who believes the bogus claim that EV is as bad as a petrol vehicle, right??

    thanks to whom ever did all the calculations - a lot of research and work
     
  16. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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  17. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    52.8k? That's way too high.

    24k Europe
    18k China
    4k S. Korea
    5k (est) Canada+ROW
    -------
    51k non-US

    With 88k total Q1 deliveries that leaves 37k for the US. That's a touch over 1% market share of 3.5m total Q1 new car sales (not sure where you got 5.8%, even the inflated 52.8k number is only 1.5% share).
     
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  18. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    I took goodcarbadcar's estimate on US deliveries.

    I mistook March sales for Q1 sales.
     
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  19. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    California 2020 Q1 Sales .

    Brand
    ..................CA 2019.................................... % Share
    1. Toyota........86,057 ...........,............................17.0
    2. Honda........56,421.........................................11.1
    3. Ford...........43,976..........................................8.7
    4. Chevrolet...39,101..........................................7.7
    5. Nissan........28,106..........................................5.5
    6. Tesla.........23,250......................................4.6
    7. Subaru......19,282............................................3.8
    8. KIA.............18,439............................................3.6
    9. BMW..........17,844............................................3.5
    10. Hyundai......17,350...........................................3.4
    11. Merc Benz...16,909..........................................3.3
    12. Lexus..........15,702..........................................3.1
    13. Jeep............15,663..........................................3.1
    14. RAM.............13,067.........................................2.6
    15. Mazda..........12,251.........................................2.4
    16. Volkswagen..11,075........................................2.2
    17. Audi..............10,998........................................2.2
    18. GMC.............9,810..........................................1.9
    19. Dodge..........9,129..........................................1.8
    20. Chrysler........5,283..........................................1.0
    21. Acura ...........5,033.........................................1.0
    22. Land Rover ..4,977.........................................1.0
    23. Infiniti............4,033,,........................................0.8
    24. Cadillac.........3,375..........................................0.7
    25. Porsche........3,364,,.........................................0.7
    26. Volvo.............3,248..........................................0.6
    27. Mitsubishi.....3,240..........................................0.6
    28. Lincoln..........2,072..........................................0.4
    29. Buick.............2,057..........................................0.4
    30. Jaguar...........1,538.........................................0.3
    31. Mini...............1,497.........................................0.3
    32. Alfa Romeo....1,092........................................0.2
    33. Genesis.........800............................................0.2
    34. FIAT................164...........................................0

    Total.........................507,646 ..................................100

    https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2020-Q1-Combined.pdf
     
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  20. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Model 3 outsold Camry and Civic

    upload_2020-5-29_5-37-10.png

    Model X moved from 5th to 3rd in Luxury Midsize SUV

    upload_2020-5-29_5-39-6.png
     
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