US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

Tesla at 1.39% US Market Share

2020 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Brand

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla at 1.39% US Market Share

View attachment 566356

2020 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Brand

Is this based on registration data? So late June sales not included but late December is included? Otherwise 90k is too much for 1H US.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates | Argonne National Laboratory

 

[RobStark]

 

[Doggydogworld]

38k, wow. Last year was almost twice that.

COVID didn't really affect US logistics, but must have affected demand. Cannibalization from Model Y is the bigger piece, IMHO. Troy estimates they only sold 15-16k Ys in the US in H1, which only explains half the Model 3 drop. Are people waiting on Y instead of buying a 3?

 

[RobStark]

California 2020 Q2 Sales.

Tesla sales fell from 19,393 in Q2 2019 to 9,833 in Q2 2020 but overall market share is up .4% for 1st half of 2020 vs first half of 2019.

You don't need to be Nostradamus to predict Tesla will overtake Nissan after 2020 is complete.

Brand..................CA 2020.................................... % Share

1. Toyota........130,344 ...........,..........................16.6
2. Honda........89,969.........................................11.4
3. Ford...........73,946..........................................9.4
4. Chevrolet...61,399..........................................7.8
5. Nissan........41,937..........................................5.3
6. Tesla.........33,083......................................4.2
7. Subaru......31,564............................................4.0
8. Merc Benz..28,813..........................................3.7
   
9. KIA.............28,299............................................3.6
10. BMW..........26,493............................................3.4
11. Hyundai......26,491...........................................3.4
12. Jeep............25,664..........................................3.3
    
13. Lexus..........23,279..........................................3.0
14. RAM.............21,230.........................................2.7
15. Mazda..........18,487.........................................2.4
16. Volkswagen..16,831........................................2.1
17. GMC.............16,428..........................................2.1
    
18. Audi..............15,838.........................................2.0
    
19. Dodge..........13,590.........................................1.7
20. Acura ...........7,615.........................................1.0
    
21. Land Rover ..7,251.........................................0.9
    
22. Chrysler........6,384..........................................0.8
23. Infiniti............5,913..........................................0.8
24. Porsche........5,723...........................................0.7
    
25. Volvo.............5,150..........................................0.7
    
26. Cadillac.........4,754..........................................0.6
27. Mitsubishi.....4,068..........................................0.5
28. Lincoln..........3,047..........................................0.4
29. Buick.............2,973..........................................0.4
30. Mini...............2,293.........................................0.3
    
31. Jaguar...........2,038.........................................0.3
32. Alfa Romeo....1,783........................................0.2
33. Genesis.........1,130.........................................0.1
    
34. FIAT................241...........................................0

Total.........................278,537 ..................................100

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.pdf

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

Model 3 tops in class and just clipped by Toyota Camry but down about 5k from Honda Civic.

Model S third in class while Chevrolet Bolt tops in class with 3575 registrations.

Model X falls to 4th class from as high as 2nd (after incorrectly labeled Lexus RX). Model Y should definitely eclipse Acura RDX to get on the leaderboard in its class by the end of the year.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Model X falls to 4th class from as high as 2nd (after incorrectly labeled Lexus RX). Model Y should definitely eclipse Acura RDX to get on the leaderboard in its class by the end of the year.

Definitely. This report uses "sales" and "registrations" interchangeably, but it's actually registrations which lag a few weeks. That can throw Tesla's quarterly numbers off because they concentrate their CA sales in the last few weeks of the quarter. I'd guess they sold 6k+ Model Ys in CA through June 30, but ~4k of those weren't registered until July.

CA BEV+PHEV share was 7.6% in 2018 and 7.8% so far in 2020. Too early to call a plateau, but worth watching.

Nissan is counting on their new Rogue. If that's a hit I think they'll stay ahead of Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

Nissan is counting on their new Rogue. If that's a hit I think they'll stay ahead of Tesla.

Exclusive: Nissan plans 30% cut in car output through December as virus hits demand

Generally, automakers put a positive spin on future forecast.

So, optimistically Nissan predicts a 30% cut in demand mid-July through December.

They have decided to get out of the "giving away cars at cost to buy market share" business.

I think the only way the Rogue is "a hit" is if they basically give them away at cost with subsidized leases.

I see Model Y making up the difference and passing Nissan in CA this year.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Exclusive: Nissan plans 30% cut in car output through December as virus hits demand

Generally, automakers put a positive spin on future forecast.

So, optimistically Nissan predicts a 30% cut in demand mid-July through December.

They have decided to get out of the "giving away cars at cost to buy market share" business.

I think the only way the Rogue is "a hit" is if they basically give them away at cost with subsidized leases.

I see Model Y making up the difference and passing Nissan in CA this year.

Yeah, now I'm confused. The Q2 2020 report you linked shows 80k Nissan registrations for the year ago period (1H 2019). I figured if Nissan nominally sold 40k/quarter then a rebound to 30-35k in Q3/Q4 would put them well over 100k for the year.

But the actual Q2 2019 report says they only did 53k last year! That's a much lower nominal run rate. I don't understand the discrepancy. Tesla's year ago numbers line up pretty closely. F and GM are off, but not by as much as Nissan.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]