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US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

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All these comments about "new customers" coming to brands - I wonder how many are genuinely intending to purchase and keep these cars? I, like many others, have a handful of reservations given wait times and car shortages. I could certainly cancel a refundable reservation I no longer need or consider flipping if the market continues to experience inflation. Example: my Lucid Air comes first - may cancel or keep, or could flip and roll back to a newer Model 3. Cybertruck comes first - will likely keep and trade-in my wife's Y, but could also flip if we find it too big for her to daily drive. I missed RIVN before the price increase, and I'm not blown away by any of the legacy auto manufacturer offerings (waiting a 6-12 months for a Mach E or Hyundai and having to deal with a dealer rubs me the wrong way).
 
All these comments about "new customers" coming to brands - I wonder how many are genuinely intending to purchase and keep these cars? I, like many others, have a handful of reservations given wait times and car shortages. I could certainly cancel a refundable reservation I no longer need or consider flipping if the market continues to experience inflation. Example: my Lucid Air comes first - may cancel or keep, or could flip and roll back to a newer Model 3. Cybertruck comes first - will likely keep and trade-in my wife's Y, but could also flip if we find it too big for her to daily drive. I missed RIVN before the price increase, and I'm not blown away by any of the legacy auto manufacturer offerings (waiting a 6-12 months for a Mach E or Hyundai and having to deal with a dealer rubs me the wrong way).

GM is talking about confirmed Lyriq Debut orders not reservations or hand raisers. GM will stop making Lyriq reservations and go straight to orders.

Yes, shortages means people that intend to buy one EV means they are making 1-5 reservations.

GM and all the automakers know about 10% of handraisers turn to actual orders.

I don't think automakers much care about flippers. Other than the optics of asking the dealers not markup EVs over MSRP. It is unknowable who will be the vehicles 2nd or 3rd hand owners or when the transactions happen.
 
All these comments about "new customers" coming to brands - I wonder how many are genuinely intending to purchase and keep these cars? I, like many others, have a handful of reservations given wait times and car shortages. I could certainly cancel a refundable reservation I no longer need or consider flipping if the market continues to experience inflation. Example: my Lucid Air comes first - may cancel or keep, or could flip and roll back to a newer Model 3. Cybertruck comes first - will likely keep and trade-in my wife's Y, but could also flip if we find it too big for her to daily drive. I missed RIVN before the price increase, and I'm not blown away by any of the legacy auto manufacturer offerings (waiting a 6-12 months for a Mach E or Hyundai and having to deal with a dealer rubs me the wrong way).
This a major step in the right direction to accelerate EV adoption by traditional American Truck buyers.


"At Electrek, we have been talking for years about how electric pickup trucks are needed to accelerate EV adoption in the US, purely because of how big the pickup segment is in the country. After years, it’s finally happening. Rivian started delivering the R1T electric pickup late last year. It’s still slowly ramping up production and already has a few thousand vehicles delivered.

Now Ford is starting deliveries of the F-150 Lightning, which is extremely exciting since it is an electric version of the F-150, the best-selling passenger vehicle in the US. Ford announced that it started production of the electric pickup truck last month, and they have since made their way to dealerships across the US. Some were delivered to fleet customers, but now we learned that the automaker started deliveries to its retail customers as well. The very first retail customer reported their delivery of the F-150 Lightning Forum, pictured."


1653673986588.png
 
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The headline to the JD Power study is most Americans won't consider an EV.

4% of new car buyers currently buy an EV over ICEv.
24% very likely to consider an EV for their next vehicle purchase. Homeowners much more likely to buy an EV than renters.
So the gap between 4% and 24% means demand for EVs will outpace supply of EVs for the foreseeable future. As supply of EV approaches 24% demand should increase to over 50% of car buyers wanting EVs. Like most of us knew on this forum.

Interesting to compare the Global view to the American view on EVs... 52% vs 24% are likely buyers respectively. ;)


"The MCI survey has tracked consumer mobility patterns and buying intentions since the start of the pandemic in 2020. EY writes: While overall levels of travel reported remain lower when compared to the pre-pandemic benchmark, the number of consumers who say constant access to a personal car is very important to them is rising, and for the first time more than half of those surveyed, 52%, who intend to buy a car say they intend to choose either a fully electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid vehicle.

In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed. Environmental concerns are cited as the main reason for respondents to buy an EV (38%), and rising penalties on gas vehicles appeared for the first time as a key concern (34%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruption is impacting the latter concern. The survey also shows that 88% of consumers are willing to pay more for an EV, and 35% are willing to pay a premium of 20% or more, in keeping with the MCI 2021 survey’s findings."
 
Interesting to compare the Global view to the American view on EVs... 52% vs 24% are likely buyers respectively. ;)

There really isn't an "American view" on automotive electrification. Like a lot of subjects, American views are highly fragmented and regionalized.

1653684561772.png


The West Coast is a lot like the UK. More BEVs less PHEVs.

The Northeast is between Spain and Italy.

The Midwest and Southeast is more like Mexico.
 
There really isn't an "American view" on automotive electrification. Like a lot of subjects, American views are highly fragmented and regionalized.

View attachment 809557

The West Coast is a lot like the UK. More BEVs less PHEVs.
The Northeast is between Spain and Italy.
The Midwest and Southeast is more like Mexico.

You quoted the JD power study to reference the overall 24% figure for likely buyers in the USA.

Most Americans won't consider buying an electric car, JD Power study finds

The headline to the JD Power study is most Americans won't consider an EV.
4% of new car buyers currently buy an EV over ICEv.
24% very likely to consider an EV for their next vehicle purchase. Homeowners much more likely to buy an EV than renters.

So the gap between 4% and 24% means demand for EVs will outpace supply of EVs for the foreseeable future.
As supply of EV approaches 24% demand should increase to over 50% of car buyers wanting EVs.
Like most of us knew on this forum.
 
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You quoted the JD power study to reference the overall 24% figure for likely buyers in the USA.

Most Americans won't consider buying an electric car, JD Power study finds


But the 24% isn't evenly distributed within the USA. That is the USA average.

To get more granular data from JD you have to pay the big bucks.

But I think we know what the gist of the distribution is.
 
Interesting commentary on the direction of the future EV market cost reductions.


"At the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on Wednesday (via ABC), Ford CEO Jim Farley said that he expects the cost of building electric vehicles to fall in the coming years – low enough to sell some EVs in the ~$25,000 range.
He believes that this will lead to a “huge price war” in the industry:
So I believe there will be our industry is definitely heading to a huge price war. He noted that the Mustang Mach-E starts at around $45,000, but the battery pack alone costs Ford $18,000 to build. This doesn’t leave a lot of room for lower prices.

Farley believes that significant cost improvements are coming to batteries, and Ford is developing its next-generation EV platform that he believes will bring significant manufacturing cost reductions. Half the fixtures, half the work stations, half the welds, 20% less fasteners. We designed it, because it’s such a simple product, to radically change the manufacturability. In order to be ready to be more price-competitive during this possible “price war”, Farley said that Ford is also ready to cut distribution costs and advertising. Farley didn’t share any specific plan on a $25,000 EV model, but there are already a few projects in the industry.

VW has its ID.Life concept that the German automaker says is a preview its upcoming ~$24,000 electric car. Tesla has also been talking about launching a $25,000 electric car, but CEO Elon Musk recently said that it paused working on the model as the company focuses on ramping up production of its existing vehicles."
 
Not directly related, but I was surprised yesterday to find a Subaru store in a shopping mall in suburban Sydney. Aside from Tesla and Lucid, I've seen the occasional car on display, but never a traditional car maker store before.
Subaru

Malls are becoming ghost towns and difficult to find new tenants.

Stock/business analyst say the future of malls is selling food, services and experiences not shoes, clothes, electronics and most physical goods.

About seven years ago a Ford dealer rented a large location about three times a standard size store. They left after 2 years.
 
It's interesting how Polestar had a higher problem rate than Tesla! Now I REALLY wonder about what their criteria are!
Here's what I found:
The survey methodology may be flawed because a problem is recorded when a system works, but customers don’t know how to use it.

The J.D. Power U.S. Initial Quality StudySM (IQS) serves as the industry benchmark for new-vehicle quality measured at 90 days of ownership.
The study examines 223 problems, which are organized into nine categories:

  • Climate
  • Driving Assistance
  • Driving Experience
  • Exterior
  • Features/Controls/Displays (FCD)
  • Infotainment
  • Interior
  • Powertrain
  • Seats
 
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