US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[Car4CivilizedAge]

Gerasimental, yes, just estimates. Another number here - 1650 - EV Sales: USA April 2015
Regarding end of quarter push, we'll start seeing how that changes monthly numbers distribution when May and June numbers come out.
He may have just referred to the last few days frenzy. Hard for me to see Norway deliveries for example at just 700 this quarter (230 in April * 3).

Based on previous quarters my guess Is deliveries in norway are a lot higher the last two
months of the quarter.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

California Registrations Year to Date through March 2015
Luxury and Sports Sedan​

Model	Registrations	% Share
BMW 5 Series	2707	12.8
MB E Class	2605	12.3
Tesla Model S	2535	12.0
Lexus GS	1680	7.9
MB S Class	1119	5.3

http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Docs/Cal Covering 1Q 15.pdf


Electric vehicles have 8218 registrations or 1.7% market share, all time highs.

PHEVs down to 1.1% from 1.6 % all time high.

Hybrids down to 5.2% from 6.8% all time.

Tesla matches its all time high overall California vehicle market share of 0.5%.

Buick has 0.4% market share.

Volvo & Lincoln both have 0.3% market share.

Jaguar has 0.1% market share.

 

[RobStark]

Estimates for May 2015

MotorIntelligence 1,900
Wards Automotive 1,652
Insideevs 2,400

 

[techmaven]

Estimates for May 2015

MotorIntelligence 1,900
Wards Automotive 1,652
Insideevs 2,400

Someone's not right.

:smile:

The spread is merely about $70 million dollars.

 

[32no]

I do not trust any of the estimates for Tesla Model S sales in US, they are all throwing darts at a board, but I trust one estimate over the others.

According to Ward's Auto, Tesla only sold 13,785 units in US in 2014. Very clearly not trustworthy.

I have no comment about Motor Intelligence because I see their data very rarely and no one seems to compile a chart of it.

InsideEVs seems to be the go to source, but I've been very skeptical, and it appears rightfully so, since today at the Shareholder meeting Elon showed a slide of Q1 NA sales and the Model S was ~5500 sales. InsideEVs estimated 4700 for NA. InsideEVs seemed to be off many times before, and this gap is huge, which means their estimates are shaky at best.

The best estimates, I believe, are from Hybrid Cars. This chart compiles the monthly data from hybrid cars, which separately estimates US sales and reports actual Canadian sales. They estimated 4,900 sales in US and Canada was 397 sales for the first three months, which brings Hybrid Car's estimate to 5,297 for NA. Only 203 cars off vs 800 cars for InsideEVs (3.7% vs 14.5% error).

 

[svp]

32no, thanks, Hybrid Cars seem like a good source. I do want to point out that I think 4700 was INsideEvs estimate for US alone. (vs. 4900 US for Hybrid Cars). Still, HybridCars seem to be closer.
In any case, their April and May numbers combined are actually very similar (4200 HybridCars vs. 4100 InsideEvs). If so, this seems to be way above Jan-Feb deliveries. Same situation in Europe.
If June numbers will be similar to March, we may see a significant "beat".

 

[32no]

32no, thanks, Hybrid Cars seem like a good source. I do want to point out that I think 4700 was INsideEvs estimate for US alone. (vs. 4900 US for Hybrid Cars). Still, HybridCars seem to be closer.
In any case, their April and May numbers combined are actually very similar (4200 HybridCars vs. 4100 InsideEvs). If so, this seems to be way above Jan-Feb deliveries. Same situation in Europe.
If June numbers will be similar to March, we may see a significant "beat".

Good points, but the InsideEVs estimate is indeed for NA:

 

[hobbes]

Market research firm claims exact number for Model S:

”For Q1 in 2015, total Tesla new registrations in the U.S. were 5,813,” IHS said.

That is about 24% more than the insideEVs estimate of 4700 discussed here before!

IHS Offers Precise U.S. Data On Tesla Model S Registrations In The First Quarter - Forbes

 

[bonaire]

In terms of registrations - it may be those P85D delivered during the end of December push were officially registered in January. Would be nice to see their registrations by month and not by quarter.
Also, Tesla has the right to claim a sale in Q4 that is paid for in full in December on the 31st or prior and delivered in January (ie. Texas cars pre-paid and on a truck on Dec. 31)

 

[schonelucht]

In terms of registrations - it may be those P85D delivered during the end of December push were officially registered in January. Would be nice to see their registrations by month and not by quarter.

Seems plausible because otherwise, there would only be about 700 cars delivered outside US/EU but including Canada. Seems too low to be realistic.

Also, Tesla has the right to claim a sale in Q4 that is paid for in full in December on the 31st or prior and delivered in January (ie. Texas cars pre-paid and on a truck on Dec. 31)

AFAIK, Tesla provided numbers are always deliveries, ie car in the hands of the customer.

 

[Benz]

the california new car dealers association (cncda) publish their california auto outlook every quarter on their website.
The sales figures of the tesla model s can be found in the luxery and sports segment (and also look further down the document).

2012 q2: 8 (june)
2012 q3: 109
2012 q4: 1,113

2012 total: 1,230

2013 q1: 2,406
2013 q2: 2,308
2013 q3: 1,823
2013 q4: 1,793

2013 total: 8,330

2014 q1: 1,533
2014 q2: 954
2014 q3: 1,239
2014 q4: ?

2014 q1+q2+q3: 3,726

2012 + 2013 + 2014 (so far) = 13,286

maybe someone can find tesla model s sales numbers from other us states as well?

2014 q4: 2,384

2014 q1+q2+q3+q4 = 6,110

2015 q1: 2,535

2012 + 2013 + 2014 + 2015 q1 = 18,205

 

[StapleGun]

In terms of registrations - it may be those P85D delivered during the end of December push were officially registered in January. Would be nice to see their registrations by month and not by quarter.
Also, Tesla has the right to claim a sale in Q4 that is paid for in full in December on the 31st or prior and delivered in January (ie. Texas cars pre-paid and on a truck on Dec. 31)

This is exactly right. I gathered some registration data a couple years ago, exploiting the fact that the way the VIN is determined leads to a relatively small number of possible Tesla VINs. A few states (Georgia and Texas are two I remember) have publicly accessible data on registrations if you know the VIN. I got a pretty good sized data set of legitimate VINs and compared their registration dates to the dates people posted on here that they recieved delivery. The average registration date was about 25 days after the delivery date.

 

[RobStark]

Highlights of the report includes a very interesting graph with a comparison of the 25 most populous metropolitan areas in terms of EV market share (vertical axis), EV promotional actions (horizontal axis) and charging points per million people (the size of the circles). Every state has a different color.


Why Top 25? Because together those metropolitan areas represent more than 42% of the population, 46% of auto sales,67% of new electric vehicle registrations, and 53% of the public electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the U.S., as of 2014.

http://insideevs.com/study-electric-car-promotion-uptake-top-25-u-s-markets/

 

[RobStark]

Through June 2015 California Market

Top "Luxury and Sports" Models	Registrations	Market Share
Mercedes E Class	5409	12.6%
BMW 5 Series	5267	12.3%
Tesla Model S	5148	12.0%
Lexus GS	3105	7.0%
Mercedes S Class	2446	5.7%

Tesla has 0.5% of the overall California Market the highest ever.
BEVs have 1.7% of the overall California Market the highest ever.
PHEVs have 1.2% of the overall California Market down from 1.6% last year.
HEVs have 5.5% of the overall California Market down from 6.8% in 2013.

http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal Covering 2Q 15 Ver 2.pdf

 

[RobStark]

 

[neroden]

OK, I have no idea what they mean by "body integrity". I've heard of drivetrain problems, paint problems, assembly problems, but I've never heard of a single "body integrity" problem; the body appears to be absolutely rock-solid stable and has required no repairs for anything short of a crash. There's something whacked about that rating, unless it means something totally different than what it sounds like.

 

[RobStark]

but I've never heard of a single "body integrity" problem; the body appears to be absolutely rock-solid stable and has required no repairs for anything short of a crash. There's something whacked about that rating, unless it means something totally different than what it sounds like.

It means something is not perfect with the body of the car. Excessive panel gaps, misaligned gaps, trim not aligned, trim coming off. These are self-reported problems per 100 cars by owners themselves. The early Model S had problems with the rear glass adhering to the liftgate causing noise problems and there were owners reporting moisture inside the taillights. There also reports of leaking Pano roofs, creaking noisy Pano roofs, and other problems with Pano roofs characterized in various manners.


The number of problems are really tiny on modern cars but they are graded on a curve. The best,Lexus LS, has 70 "problems per 100 cars" that can include individual imperfections in the paint job.. The worst, some VW and FCA cars, have about 134 problems per 100 cars. When it comes to overall reliability ratings CR does not distinguish between a 1 mm smudge in the paint or inoperable engine. A problem is a problem.

Many VW and FCA owners rail against Consumer Reports but the fact is good ratings help tremendously in sales and poor ones hurt.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Highlights of the report includes a very interesting graph with a comparison of the 25 most populous metropolitan areas in terms of EV market share (vertical axis), EV promotional actions (horizontal axis) and charging points per million people (the size of the circles). Every state has a different color.


Why Top 25? Because together those metropolitan areas represent more than 42% of the population, 46% of auto sales,67% of new electric vehicle registrations, and 53% of the public electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the U.S., as of 2014.

http://insideevs.com/study-electric-car-promotion-uptake-top-25-u-s-markets/

Always need to define variables. For instance what is a charge point? Every home, or at least almost every home has electric outlets, these can be charge points. Do they mean commercial public charge points? 240 volt 30 amp circuits are in almost all homes as well. How are they surveying whether in the garage or not?

 

[RobStark]

Always need to define variables. For instance what is a charge point? Every home, or at least almost every home has electric outlets, these can be charge points. Do they mean commercial public charge points? 240 volt 30 amp circuits are in almost all homes as well. How are they surveying whether in the garage or not?

Obviously, they mean public charging points. If you click the link they specify.

Private homes would hardly show statistically significant differences between cities and would matter little to potential buyers in various cities.