How many more Tesla Model S deliveries in California will there be in H2 2015?
How about 6,000(+)?
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How about 6,000(+)?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
mikes_fsd
Banned
RobStark
Well-Known Member
https://www.facebook.com/ClipperCreek/photos_stream
Clipper Creek is probably polling their own customers which bypasses Tesla owners so it probably skews PHEV.
But still enlightening IMO.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Interesting - looks like there is a lot of growth potential even inside the US as sales are still very unequally distributed. Would be good to calculate this as Teslas per capita (California is the state with the most citizens in the US, right?).
For what time frame are those numbers?
---Updated---
O.k., found it here - original caption is "New Tesla Model S sales in US (*Data for All Tesla Registrations Since Model S Debut; Source: Polk, Edmunds.com)"
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
CA has ~12% of US Population or about 10% more than Canada.
Per Capita is useful but so is straight numbers too.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Here are the population-weighted figures for new car sales. California still dominates but Washington does quite well. Texas, not so much. Surprisingly, Nevada is 4th in sales per capita.
State Sales % per 10 million
Other 1.7
Per Coilied on Insiveevs.com
State Sales % per 10 million
- California 11.6
- Washington 6.5
- Florida 3.7
- New Jersey 3.7
- Nevada 3.6
- Illinois 3.3
- Arizona 2.8
- Texas 2.1
- New York 1.8
- Ohio 0.9
Other 1.7
Per Coilied on Insiveevs.com
Cool, thanks. So (conservatively) assuming California market is saturated and also assuming (not so conserveratively) the other 9 states will eventually have the same per-capita number of Teslas, that gives
11.6%*10 / Sum(per capita % over all states) = 116/40 =approx 3
So that would mean just in the top ten states they could still sell 2x (3-1 for the cars already sold) as many cars (in addition) as they already have sold in total. As the other 40 states have even less, under the assumptions above that would lead to a approximation of of 5 times that of the top 10 states or still 10x as many Model S to be sold... Quite a staggering number. Even if all the other states got only half as many Model Ss as California a factor of 5 or so would still not be too bad. And that is only Model S...
11.6%*10 / Sum(per capita % over all states) = 116/40 =approx 3
So that would mean just in the top ten states they could still sell 2x (3-1 for the cars already sold) as many cars (in addition) as they already have sold in total. As the other 40 states have even less, under the assumptions above that would lead to a approximation of of 5 times that of the top 10 states or still 10x as many Model S to be sold... Quite a staggering number. Even if all the other states got only half as many Model Ss as California a factor of 5 or so would still not be too bad. And that is only Model S...
RobStark
Well-Known Member
In article about Tesla at cnbc there is an interactive graphic shows distribution of EV registration across the US States for entire market as well as by brand.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/10/-would-buying-a-tesla-really-cost-you.html
chickensevil
Active Member
Depends on the state, Mine is around roughly 5k$ for a Tesla (depending on your options and such). But that still isn't a bad incentive... sadly, VA has no incentives, and in-fact has anti-incentives as they are taxing EVs to pay for their "fair share" of the road use.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Best Selling Cars Blog
US
October 2015
Tesla Model S: 1,730
January - October 2015
Tesla Model S: 17,030
Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015/11/usa-october-2015-all-time-record-year-now-a-true-possibility/
US
October 2015
Tesla Model S: 1,730
January - October 2015
Tesla Model S: 17,030
Link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015/11/usa-october-2015-all-time-record-year-now-a-true-possibility/
Inside EVs estimates 1900 in October for a year to date total of 18900. We can now estimate NA sales per quarter fairly accurately. The biggest unknown are sales outside China, Europe or North America in countries like Japan or Australia. I put them down as 'elsewhere' in the table below.
| Total deliveries | China | Europe | Elsewhere | North America | InsideEV estimate | |
| Q1 | 10045 | -797 | -3491 | -500(?) | =5257 | 4700 |
| Q2 | 11532 | -883 | -3905 | -600(?) | =6144 | 6900 |
| Q3 | 11603 | -1345 | -3341 | -700(?) | =6217 | 5400 |
| October | 4000(?) | -500(?) | -985 | -250(?) | =2265 | 1900 |
Japan on some reports is said to be #2 on the list of millionaires per country. Japan doesn't seem to be a priority, so obviously factors other than ability to buy are important.
I am really interested to see China Q4. They better be buying a lot of Tesla products if they are the major influencer of product development.
Tracking Germany separately would be a meaning indicator of base European interest. They have never had incentives (I think), and Tesla is investing heavily in that country.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla California market share for Q3 2015 is .5% vs .3% last year.
BEV market share is 1.6% same as Q2. That means Tesla has 31% of BEV sales.
Edit Mistook YTD registrations for Q3 registrations.
http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal Covering 3Q 15-CNCDA edits.pdf
BEV market share is 1.6% same as Q2. That means Tesla has 31% of BEV sales.
Edit Mistook YTD registrations for Q3 registrations.
| Luxury and Sports Car Market | Q3 2015 YTD | |
| Model | Registrations | Market Share |
| Mercedes E-Class | 8583 | 13.3 % |
| BMW 5 Series | 8207 | 12.7 % |
| Tesla Model S | 7336 | 11.4 % |
| Lexus GS | 4541 | 7.0 % |
| Mercedes S-Class | 3731 | 5.8 % |
http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/Cal Covering 3Q 15-CNCDA edits.pdf
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Not so fast! 7336 is year to date. Q3 number is a much more reasonable 2187 source : page 3 of this report. What's impressive here is that this is up from 1239 last year. The Californian market for Tesla seems far from saturated.
