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There is a new California Outlook (Q2 2016) out and Tesla remains an exceptionally strong seller. 4967 cars, up from 2526 last year or nearly 35% of global deliveries (over both models).
The data in different portions of this Publication are not consistent. On page 2 registrations for Model S are listed at 5147, while total for Tesla on page 3 is 4967. How total (MS+MX) could be less then MS alone?
The Q2 publication listing total for Q1 at 2526, while Q1 publication lists total for Q1 at 2937 (??)
EDIT: Never mind - mixed up quarter data with YTD data - thanks to Oil4AsphaultOnly and Troy for pointing the mistake.
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I just took a look at it, and it's because of different columns have different scope. The 5147 was for model S sales in H1 2016, while the 4967 is Tesla sales (model S + X) for just Q2 2016. 4 columns to the right, you'll find 7904 as the Tesla sales for H1 2016.
@vgrinshpun,
5147 is Model S YTD, while 4967 is the Tesla number but just for Q2 2016. It says 7904 for Tesla YTD a few columns later.
Tesla Q1+Q2 2016: 7904 (Page 3. It says YTD)
Tesla Q2 2016: 4967 (Page 3)
Tesla Q1 2016 = 7904 - 4967 = 2937
5147 is Model S YTD, while 4967 is the Tesla number but just for Q2 2016. It says 7904 for Tesla YTD a few columns later.
No. 2526 is Q2 2015, not Q1 2016. This latest file doesn't directly show Q1 2016 Tesla number but it shows YTD and Q2 numbers. Therefore you can calculate:
Tesla Q1+Q2 2016: 7904 (Page 3. It says YTD)
Tesla Q2 2016: 4967 (Page 3)
Tesla Q1 2016 = 7904 - 4967 = 2937
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Luxury and Sports Car 2016 YTD
Model Registrations Market Share
BMW 5-Series 5207 13.2
Tesla Model S 5147 13.1
Mercedes E-Class 5050 12.8
Mercedes S-Class 2072 5.3
Lexus GS 1978 5.0
Tesla was 60 units from being tops in this segment.
CADA separates premium cars into near luxury( C Class 3 Series etc) and luxury/sports.
Model Registrations Market Share
BMW 5-Series 5207 13.2
Tesla Model S 5147 13.1
Mercedes E-Class 5050 12.8
Mercedes S-Class 2072 5.3
Lexus GS 1978 5.0
Tesla was 60 units from being tops in this segment.
CADA separates premium cars into near luxury( C Class 3 Series etc) and luxury/sports.
The federal administration must somehow tally up the number of Tesla vehicles for which the $7500 credit is applicable to know when the phase out period starts. Is it possible to request this information under the freedom of information act? Has anyone tried? Can a non-citizen from abroad do so? If so, I would but I don't know how it works at all. Maybe an interested American on this forum can start the process?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The U.S. administration is not responsible for counting each OEM is responsible for counting and informing the IRS when they have reached 200k American sales.
Interesting. How does the OEM know that a customer will claim the credit? Or does the phase out start after a set number of eligible cars, irrespective of wether the buyer actually took the credit?
@schonelucht,
The process is explained HERE (scroll down and expand the phaseout section). As of today, Tesla sold 90,790 units in the USA and they will reach 200K on 3 Dec 2017 according to my calculation. All the details and the daily counter can be found HERE (scroll all the way to the right).
Tesla's USA sales are mostly known because,
◘ In 2012 Tesla sold cars only in North America and they published their total sales.
◘ In 2013, they sold cars in North America and Europe. They published global numbers and we know Europe numbers from the wiki project.
◘ 2014 and 2015 USA sales were published by Tesla HERE (table 2 on page 1).
The process is explained HERE (scroll down and expand the phaseout section). As of today, Tesla sold 90,790 units in the USA and they will reach 200K on 3 Dec 2017 according to my calculation. All the details and the daily counter can be found HERE (scroll all the way to the right).
Tesla's USA sales are mostly known because,
◘ In 2012 Tesla sold cars only in North America and they published their total sales.
◘ In 2013, they sold cars in North America and Europe. They published global numbers and we know Europe numbers from the wiki project.
◘ 2014 and 2015 USA sales were published by Tesla HERE (table 2 on page 1).
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Thanks. So the phase out happens after 200k eligible cars sold, not after tax credits claimed. On of the links given by @Troy led me to a list maintained by the IRS of manufacturers and the number of cars sold. Unfortunately Tesla is not listed.
Insideev is projecting 4350 Model S in September and 3200 Model X. Total US sales this quarter : 15425. Or somewhere around 60% of global sales. This brings the total US projected deliveries by the end of 2017 to nearly 197 000 per @Troy 's spreadsheet. That's quite close to 200 000. Especially because the projection assumes only 50% of global sales are US based. If this 60% figure holds up, everything else being equal, the full federal credit would run out on April 1st 2018 instead of June 1st 2018.
That's certainly possible, the projection assumes 4k Model 3s in 17Q3 and 32k in 17Q4, 99% of those delivered in the US. Moving just 20% or so of those cars to Norway should be enough to save the quarter.
Th
They can also slightly twist (so, without making it too loudly) the pace as rebates disappears for 75% of $7500 NOT for the first quarter, BUT for the first half year, and so on. So if Tesla manage to deliver the 200.000th car, in US, in the beginning of 2017, they would have 100% rebate until end June 2017, 75% rebate until 2017 end, then 50% rebate until the end of June 2018, and for the last 25%, it will last until the end of 2018. Now, the ball is on the hands of whom will be elected in November!
They can also slightly twist (so, without making it too loudly) the pace as rebates disappears for 75% of $7500 NOT for the first quarter, BUT for the first half year, and so on. So if Tesla manage to deliver the 200.000th car, in US, in the beginning of 2017, they would have 100% rebate until end June 2017, 75% rebate until 2017 end, then 50% rebate until the end of June 2018, and for the last 25%, it will last until the end of 2018. Now, the ball is on the hands of whom will be elected in November!
Wall street wants Clinton, of course. Renewables advocates also do. I'm scared either way
Definitely room to adjust the rebates and incentives as time goes buy. The 30% five year ITC extension for renewables was a huge incentive win for the cause. And it basically includes batteries and may make dual-use battery cycle also applicable for 30% ITC (I'm not 100% sure). meaning, charge at night, dump during daytime without solar attachment. If so, then that spurs the battery segment.
