TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

US Tesla Sales Continue Downward Slide.

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by alevek, Jul 3, 2017.

  1. alevek

    alevek Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2016
    Messages:
    121
    Location:
    Jupiter, Fl
    Strange no one worries about this:

    Quarterly Model S Model X Total
    2016 1 6390 2400 8790
    2016 2 5700 4540 10240
    2016 3 9156 5783 14939
    2016 4 7650 5500 13150
    2017 1 6100 4300 10400
    2017 2 5095 4645 9740
     
    • Informative x 5
    • Disagree x 4
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  2. mal_tsla

    mal_tsla Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2016
    Messages:
    264
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Pretty sure Elon worries
     
    • Funny x 1
  3. thx1139

    thx1139 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2014
    Messages:
    319
    Location:
    Lemont, IL
    U base this on 1 year over year quarter?
     
  4. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    3,276
    You are using InsideEV's estimates. They are estimates. The difference between Q1 and Q2 is well within the noise of their guessing. Furthermore, a more accurate picture is to look at the overall global sales. Tesla is still production limited, so allocating more to one region necessarily starves another. So no, not worried there.
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Disagree x 1
  5. alevek

    alevek Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2016
    Messages:
    121
    Location:
    Jupiter, Fl
    Look at the numbers. Peaked 3rd qtr 2016 and been going down ever since.
     
  6. smak

    smak Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2016
    Messages:
    231
    Location:
    NorthHollywood, CA
    That's like saying Apple was worried about iPhone 6s sales in August 2016.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  7. alevek

    alevek Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2016
    Messages:
    121
    Location:
    Jupiter, Fl
    The numbers are reconciled at the end of the quarter. The declining sales in US have nothing to do with production limits.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
  8. azred

    azred Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    632
    Location:
    USA
    Strange that anyone would even post about a wild guess on 2017 production. About as accurate as the estimates people are posting here re 2017 Model 3 production. Will X and S numbers be down? Probably wouldn't be surprising -- but not too concerning-- given the excitement about the Model 3 introduction.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    3,276
    Look at global sales. A sale in Dubai or South Korea takes away a sale somewhere else. Tesla is still production constrained, so looking at a single region doesn't make sense.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  10. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    3,276
    What does this even mean to you? Are you really that daft at understanding the business?
     
    • Disagree x 2
    • Like x 1
  11. alevek

    alevek Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2016
    Messages:
    121
    Location:
    Jupiter, Fl
    No, that would be like Apple would be worried if iPhone sales declined three quarters in a row.
     
    • Like x 2
  12. alevek

    alevek Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2016
    Messages:
    121
    Location:
    Jupiter, Fl
    Are you really that daft at understanding the meaning of real world numbers?
     
    • Disagree x 3
    • Like x 1
  13. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    USA
    Peak in 16Q3 was due to a corporate push - with 2-year USA leases, deals on all the old Classic front fascia, $30k discounts on P90DL and more. That is hard to replication easily.

    If Q2 was really great, the number would be printed by now. It is probably close to 22,000 and the lower-edge of guidance. Maybe, but without the Q1 Hong Kong burst, it's possibly lower.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2013
    Messages:
    3,276
    You clearly are not interested in understanding the business.

    For example, the Chevrolet Bolt, according to cars.com has 5,943 new car listings. That's 3.5 months worth of inventory on hand. If Tesla had 3.5 months of inventory on hand, that would be 12,000 vehicles lying around in the U.S. alone. Tesla doesn't have 12,000 new Model S's and X's lying around in the U.S. or even in the entire world.

    So again... Tesla is building about 26,000 Model S's and X's a quarter these days. They opened new markets this quarter, including South Korea, New Zealand, and Dubai. And mainland China sales have been increasing. In order to ship more cars to those regions, less would be shipped to U.S. customers.
     
    • Like x 4
    • Informative x 3
  15. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    5,265
    What is the four-letter word beginning with "d" that describes posters who irresponsibly denigrate other posters? Moderators would love to know.....
     
    • Funny x 4
    • Informative x 1
  16. larmor

    larmor Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2014
    Messages:
    1,271
    Location:
    Irvine, CA
    There is no need to understand the business if the goal is to profit from short term fluctuations in the market price of tsla. What other company is selling out all it's $100k widgets and has 400000 pre orders/ reservations for $35k widgets...
     
    • Like x 1
  17. Sonny Daze

    Sonny Daze Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2016
    Messages:
    785
    Location:
    DC
    I don't care about U.S. sales at all. All I care about is that they stay in business. If they sell 5K here and 20K, 30K, 50K overseas, that's fine by me. I'd actually even prefer that, as the U.S. tax credit would last longer and the S/X would be more exclusive.
     
    • Helpful x 1
  18. larmor

    larmor Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2014
    Messages:
    1,271
    Location:
    Irvine, CA
    Yes you are correct, no one here is worried.
     
    • Like x 4
    • Funny x 2
  19. Nosken

    Nosken Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2015
    Messages:
    372
    Location:
    Lincoln, CA
    As Tesla expands to more countries, and is still production constrained, it makes sense that the US numbers would drop. US sales are down a bit, but there is still a wait for the car, so the demand is more than the supply.

    You said "No, that would be like Apple would be worried if iPhone sales declined three quarters in a row." Yes, but if worldwide sales increased by more than it dropped in the US=no worries. Remember iPhone production is not production constrained except upon introduction.

    At some point you reach saturation, and is is usually regional. The early adopters have already bought 1 or more Teslas, and the remaining leading edge people are now looking at them. You have to remember, being a new type of car-Electric and $100,000 is mot the mainstream market. The model 3 is designed for a more mainstream audience.

    Frankly, it is amazing that Tesla sales are this strong in a car market that is decreasing. The next decade, car ownership will decrease significantly for everyone. Millennials are not gravitating to car ownership. They are attracted to ride sharing and car sharing. Tesla network, Uber and Lyft is being developed to address that.
     
    • Like x 1
  20. hockeythug

    hockeythug Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,877
    Location:
    Minnesota
    It has been beaten into the ground that trying to gauge US sales trends is pointless as Tesla international delivery decisions and cars in transit skews things.
     

Share This Page