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US Tesla Sales Continue Downward Slide.
- Thread starter alevek
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- Tesla Inc.
Ah, yes, kind of like rewrite history if it doesn't fit your desired view of reality.
I think of the Osborne effect in relation to the idea Model 3 will challenge Tesla, if it's true it will have 300 miles of range. There aren't too many more options of greater importance than range, in my mind. With so many coming from Prius, you know they'd settle for less than Tesla's flagship. That snapshot can't be helping 'S', 'X' sales. Generally speaking, neither does a lack of specs for Model 3. People remain wishful, until they know exactly what they don't want. I wouldn't believe anyone who said '3' and S/X aren't being cross-shopped.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
There are no lack of people who bought a Model S because no other EV offered the range they wanted, the Supercharger network, and perhaps the Tesla brand. Had the less expensive Model 3 been available, I suspect it would have cannibalized Model S sales greatly.
The converse exists but I'm skeptical of any large numbers.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
I'm surprised that the article doesn't mention the effect of leased vehicles. automakers have been giving bargain lease deals since the recession to get cars off the lots. hell, a portion of
leases are actually used vehicles, something that didn't really exist before. Used lots have been getting flooded the last couple years with prices going down. This year they are cutting back
on the lease offers to help out the used market and moved the bargains back to new car sales.
now is the time to buy
Was in the Tempe service / sales store twice in as many weeks going over details of my soon to be in my garage CPO M/S. But your point about Model 3 excitement is likely spot on. Most customers who came into the store were inquiring about Model 3. Others were usually showing up for service work on their Model S's and there was one Model X delivery I got to watch first hand.
The sales people are being inundated with questions surrounding Model 3 nearly to the exclusion of the S or X from what I have seen here.
Also they indicated that CPO sales are on the rise as prices decline into the average Joe's budget (no real surprise there) though.
Now is the time to buy as Model 3 is rolling out and will give all Model S owners an instant 50% depreciation hit? I don't think so.
While I agree seasonal demand affects many products, the mostly once a year updated iPhone is a poor comparison to a Tesla that is updated several times each quarter. Tesla sales thus run on a different product lifecycle.
It is a myth. Tesla is no longer production constrained relative to demand on the Model S/X, otherwise there would be no need for such quarterly demand lever games nor would the delivery times be so short.
Well said.
Summer 2016 at the latest seems to be the time when production capacity exceeded the demand that was available without extra marketing effort... and that was also around the time that product changes alone could not keep the demand growing (or even sustained in areas) as needed and the other levers seriously started.
IMO, that is the time when Tesla really should have just started buying some ads and resorted to price campaings - they could have done the latter globally, so no need to ditch the "same price for all" (which they actually ditched in Q3/2016 for a moment). After all, through reverse discounts Tesla has already been sort of doing that, but in a much more gimmicky way...
Tesla, buy some ads and keep aging products interesting through discount campaings. These are not bad tools that somehow would have to be avoided.
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That's true. In fact, courtesy of the very helpful chart posted by @RubberToe and copied below, it is clear that in the first six months of 2017 Model S continues to rapidly gain market share in the U.S., with sales of competing cars dropping much faster than the Model S.
Sales of all premium sedans in the chart dropped an average of 26.27%, while Model S sales were only 7.40% lower in the first six months of 2017 compared to 2016. And if you exclude Model S sales from the totals, the ICE competitors' sales were actually down 32.5% year over year (36309-24492/36309).
So Model S sales continue to significantly outperform the ICE competition in the U.S., and are doing very well considering the state of the market.
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I blame hipstersThat's true. In fact, courtesy of the very helpful chart posted by @RubberToe and copied below, it is clear that in the first six months of 2017 Model S continues to rapidly gain market share in the U.S., with sales of competing cars dropping much faster than the Model S.
Sales of all premium sedans in the chart dropped an average of 26.27%, while Model S sales were only 7.40% lower in the first six months of 2017 compared to 2016. And if you exclude Model S sales from the totals, the ICE competitors' sales were actually down 32.5% year over year (36309-24492/36309).
So Model S sales continue to significantly outperform the ICE competition in the U.S., and are doing very well considering the state of the market.
Tesla isn't demand constrained until there are no such levers to pull any more. If they could produce more, they could sell more, by entering new markets, advertising in unsaturated existing markets, offering more incentives, in other words "pulling demand levers".
Tesla is product constrained in that not too many people want their product right now. If I were in the market for Model S again I'd be a hard no on a purchase right now with Model 3 coming out in a few days.
This wouldn't apply if I were shopping for Model X.
If Model 3 is really $35k, Tesla will need to drop price of Model S to keep it competitive.
This wouldn't apply if I were shopping for Model X.
If Model 3 is really $35k, Tesla will need to drop price of Model S to keep it competitive.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
I think a sales drop should be expected given the internal and external focus on the Model 3 launch.
The biggest question is how much has the Gigafactory been able to reduce battery cost? That affects not only the Model 3, but Model S and X margins and cost/margins on their grid storage products as well. I hope they have been pretty successful on that end.
I would also like to add that the title of this thread smells of FUD / sensationalism. You should avoid that; it might put you on the naughty list.
The biggest question is how much has the Gigafactory been able to reduce battery cost? That affects not only the Model 3, but Model S and X margins and cost/margins on their grid storage products as well. I hope they have been pretty successful on that end.
I would also like to add that the title of this thread smells of FUD / sensationalism. You should avoid that; it might put you on the naughty list.
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Xminus6
Member
Given the news about Tesla's deal with Australia, to supply the world's largest battery storage system in the world, is it possible that Tesla has been quietly diverting battery supplies to prepare for that. Musk promised he could have it installed within 100 days of the signed contract or it would be free. 100MWh is a lot of batteries, even for Tesla I would think.
Tesla can't simply enter new markets, though, it takes an investment.
I was simply talking their existing production capacity vs. their existing markets. They are not production constrained for those markets, obviously not, given they need ever-changing demand levers, have a hard time meeting anything but the lower end of their guidance and keep making cars to inventory. None of these suggest production constraints.
So, Tesla is demand constrained within the markets they are in. Demand is of course affected by the impending Model 3, too, so that is one additional factor. But Tesla started hitting the limits of their no-marketing demand already in the summer of 2016 so it is not only that...
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Well I only bring up the iPhone sales because that was used as an example (and also by OP). It's just not unusual for products (even in demand) to decline quarter by quarter due to seasonal trends. That why analysts look at the same quarter/month and vary by year or look at YTD to the same period to negate seasonal trends as much as possible.
I made a quick chart of US Camry sales for example. You can see it having 3-4 straight back to back quarterly declines (but recovers back the next season). That doesn't mean the model is doomed as the OP was implying. It's largely seasonal.
Toyota Camry Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR