List prices for used Model S's seem to be ludicrously high. Many sellers are asking prices that are close to or above MSRP for vehicles that are 12 mos or older and have 12,000 or more miles. It is as if they are driving the car for a year and expecting to sell it for almost the same price after taking the federal and state tax credits for themselves!
Tesla Motors is continuing to increase production and will soon be up to 700 cars/week and will hopefully reach 1000 cars/week by the end of the year. Wait times for new cars are at an all time low. A new P85 ordered today in mid-May 2014 will be available in late July per the website.
Most used ICE cars with MSRPs around $100,000 (e.g., Mercedes S550) have Edmunds True Market Values of 75% of MSRP at 12 mos.
Kelly Blue Book and Edmund's True Market Values are not yet available for Model S's, and it seems many sellers are taking advantage of this in hopes of making a profit.
Tesla Motors offers used demo/loaner cars at a significant discount: 1%/month AND $1/mile. Plus, they still offer the full 8-year battery warranty AND the federal and state tax discounts ($10,000 in CA). E.g., a well-equipped 6-mo old car with 6000 miles would sell for: $110,000 * 0.94 - 6000 = $97400 - $10000 tax credits = $87,400 WITH FULL 8-yr BATTERY WARRANTY!
I have been researching the used P85 market for a few months now as I plan to buy a used P85 in the next few mos. I have seen asking prices as high as $120,000 with most prices around $99,500. This is absurd! And the tax credits do not apply for these cars in CA making matters worse!
Used well-equipped P85s (tech, sound, 21s, pano, etc) that have sold have had sales prices of $81,000-91,000 and range from 6-13 mos old and 5000-13500 miles. Two recent P85s sold on Ebay for $82,600 and $84,500. A seller recently offered me $85,500 for his 11-mo old P85 with 13k miles.
I have been working on a depreciation formula to calculate fair True Market Value for used P85s. The 1%/mo and $1/mile calculation is unrealistic for higher mileage cars. For example using this calculation, a 36-mo P85 with 36k miles would be worth: $112000 * (1-.36) - 36000 = $35680.
Tesla Motor's buy-back program offers 50% of the MSRP of the 60 + 43% of any options (inc upgrade to S85 and P85) after 36-39 mos with 15k miles/yr. A well-equipped 2014 P85 with an MSRP of $112,220 will be worth $53153 in 36 mos with 45k miles per Tesla's buyback program. This works out to linear depreciation of 1%/mo + $0.41/mile. For an S85, this works out to 1%/mo + $0.35/mile; and for an S60, this works out to 1%/mo + $0.31/mile.
So for example, if a P85 is 12 mos old with 12000 miles and had an MSRP of $112,000, it's True Market Value would be: $112,000 * (1-.12) - (0.41 * 12000) =$ 98560 - $4920 = $93640. Since the seller benefited from the tax credits, these should be subtracted from the TMV: $93640 - $10,000 = $83,640.
This gives the seller the benefit of linear depreciation which is not consistent with reality in the used car market; used cars depreciate exponentially in the first 2 yrs and then level out over years 2-5. Typical depreciation curves show 25-28% depreciation in the first year.
I urge all buyers of used P85s to use my depreciation calculations when making offers on used P85s (or S85s/S60s for that matter). Do not overpay for a depreciating asset no matter how badly you want it now. A one-year old car in 2 yrs will only be worth $53,000 per Elon Musk's calculations. And he should know!
Tesla Motors is continuing to increase production and will soon be up to 700 cars/week and will hopefully reach 1000 cars/week by the end of the year. Wait times for new cars are at an all time low. A new P85 ordered today in mid-May 2014 will be available in late July per the website.
Most used ICE cars with MSRPs around $100,000 (e.g., Mercedes S550) have Edmunds True Market Values of 75% of MSRP at 12 mos.
Kelly Blue Book and Edmund's True Market Values are not yet available for Model S's, and it seems many sellers are taking advantage of this in hopes of making a profit.
Tesla Motors offers used demo/loaner cars at a significant discount: 1%/month AND $1/mile. Plus, they still offer the full 8-year battery warranty AND the federal and state tax discounts ($10,000 in CA). E.g., a well-equipped 6-mo old car with 6000 miles would sell for: $110,000 * 0.94 - 6000 = $97400 - $10000 tax credits = $87,400 WITH FULL 8-yr BATTERY WARRANTY!
I have been researching the used P85 market for a few months now as I plan to buy a used P85 in the next few mos. I have seen asking prices as high as $120,000 with most prices around $99,500. This is absurd! And the tax credits do not apply for these cars in CA making matters worse!
Used well-equipped P85s (tech, sound, 21s, pano, etc) that have sold have had sales prices of $81,000-91,000 and range from 6-13 mos old and 5000-13500 miles. Two recent P85s sold on Ebay for $82,600 and $84,500. A seller recently offered me $85,500 for his 11-mo old P85 with 13k miles.
I have been working on a depreciation formula to calculate fair True Market Value for used P85s. The 1%/mo and $1/mile calculation is unrealistic for higher mileage cars. For example using this calculation, a 36-mo P85 with 36k miles would be worth: $112000 * (1-.36) - 36000 = $35680.
Tesla Motor's buy-back program offers 50% of the MSRP of the 60 + 43% of any options (inc upgrade to S85 and P85) after 36-39 mos with 15k miles/yr. A well-equipped 2014 P85 with an MSRP of $112,220 will be worth $53153 in 36 mos with 45k miles per Tesla's buyback program. This works out to linear depreciation of 1%/mo + $0.41/mile. For an S85, this works out to 1%/mo + $0.35/mile; and for an S60, this works out to 1%/mo + $0.31/mile.
So for example, if a P85 is 12 mos old with 12000 miles and had an MSRP of $112,000, it's True Market Value would be: $112,000 * (1-.12) - (0.41 * 12000) =$ 98560 - $4920 = $93640. Since the seller benefited from the tax credits, these should be subtracted from the TMV: $93640 - $10,000 = $83,640.
This gives the seller the benefit of linear depreciation which is not consistent with reality in the used car market; used cars depreciate exponentially in the first 2 yrs and then level out over years 2-5. Typical depreciation curves show 25-28% depreciation in the first year.
I urge all buyers of used P85s to use my depreciation calculations when making offers on used P85s (or S85s/S60s for that matter). Do not overpay for a depreciating asset no matter how badly you want it now. A one-year old car in 2 yrs will only be worth $53,000 per Elon Musk's calculations. And he should know!
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